Indo-Pak Relations, Always Oscillating

In the history of India and Pakistan relations since the partition days of 1947, every glimmer of hope for peace between the two countries has often been thwarted by deep-rooted tensions, mistrust, and entrenched interests.

The latest events of the Minister of External Affairs, Dr S. Jaishankar, attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Islamabad, and Pakistan’s agreement to extend the Kartarpur Corridor agreement suggested a step forward, a moment of diplomatic opportunity to rebuild trust between the two neighbouring countries.

However, just as in the past, these steps towards reconciliation have been marred by acts of violence and terrorism, highlighting a recurring pattern in which Pakistan’s shadowy network of radical militants supported perhaps by a section of “deep state” play once again a destabilising role as described by one of the political observers of J&K politics.

This scenario is not new. Over the last few decades, every major diplomatic positive engagement between India and Pakistan has been damaged by an array of violent incidents or regressive actions that serve to abolish any chance of lasting reconciliation. The current scenario is no different, as terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir, on October 24 killed two civilian porters, and two army persons and injured a few. A couple of days ago an attack by armed terrorists carrying automatic assault rifles killed a local doctor and half a dozen civilian labourers in cold blood hailing from Bihar, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, highlights how fragile any step forward can be.

Pattern of Sabotage

Whenever India and Pakistan have appeared to be on the verge of meaningful diplomatic engagement, a section of Pakistan’s establishment has derailed the process.

The example of the Kargil War in 1999 remains one of the most prominent illustrations of this trend. Then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee took a historic step toward reconciliation by traveling to Lahore to meet with Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif. The two leaders signed the Lahore Declaration, a joint agreement aimed at resolving long-standing issues. The visit was hailed as a breakthrough, with both sides expressing optimism about the future. However, within months, Pakistan’s military, led by General Pervez Musharraf, launched a covert operation to infiltrate Indian territory in the Kargil region. The resulting conflict dashed hopes for peace and once again plunged the two countries into a cycle of mistrust and hostility.

Similarly, another glimmer of hope emerged when India’s Minister of External Affairs, Dr S. Jaishankar, attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Islamabad. It was the first high-level visit by an Indian official to Pakistan in several years, and it raised the possibility, however faint, of a thaw in relations. In a follow-up India and Pakistan also agreed to extend the validity of the Kartarpur Corridor Agreement for another five years allowing Indian Sikh pilgrims to visit a holy site in Pakistan without a visa, suggesting that both nations were open to limited cooperation seen as yet another confidence-building measure.

However, as has happened so many times before, these baby steps of CBMs toward peace were once again marred by acts of terrorism and violence. Within days of the SCO summit, an army convoy was attacked by terrorists in the Gulmarg area of Baramulla district, resulting in casualties. Around the same week, at least three separate attacks on poor labourers from other parts of the country working in Kashmir on daily wages were targeted, leading to multiple deaths and injuries.

These incidents are a stark reminder that while civilian or political leaders on both sides may express a desire for better relations, a section of “deep state” in Pakistan continues to play a destructive role, ensuring that peace remains elusive.

Over the years, civilian leaders in Pakistan, including several top leaders, have attempted to improve relations with India. But these efforts have been consistently undermined by the military and intelligence establishment, which sees peace with India as a threat to its own influence as these institutions, which wield significant influence over the country’s foreign and security policies.

The Kargil War was not an isolated incident. Over the years, similar patterns have played out time and again. For instance, when Narendra Modi made a surprise visit to Pakistan in December 2015 to attend a family wedding in Nawaz Sharif’s family, it was widely seen as a bold move toward reconciliation. Modi’s visit, which took place on Sharif’s birthday, was unprecedented in its informality and personal touch, sparking hope that relations between the two countries could improve.

Yet, just days after Modi’s visit, the Pathankot Airbase was attacked by militants with links to Pakistan. The attack derailed the promising peace process and reinforced the accusation that Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies were supporting terrorism as a state policy.

Similar incidents followed, such as the Uri attack in 2016, where militants attacked an Army base, killing 19 soldiers. In response, India launched a series of surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC), targeting terrorist launch pads in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

These incidents illustrate a consistent pattern, whenever civilian leaders in Pakistan have extended an olive branch toward India, elements within the country’s strong lobby have acted to derail the process, often through the use of “proxies” that carry out attacks on Indian soil even though Pakistan always denies it.

SCO Summit 2024 in Pakistan

The SCO summit in Islamabad provided a rare moment of diplomatic engagement between India and Pakistan. Dr Jaishankar’s presence at the summit was significant, as it marked the first time in years that a high-ranking Indian official had visited Pakistan. His remarks at the summit, while focused on regional issues such as terrorism and economic cooperation, carried a message to Pakistan: if it truly seeks peace and prosperity, it must stop supporting terrorism. During the summit, Jaishankar shared a lunch table with Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, a sight that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

He also extended cordial thanks to the Pakistani leadership on social media after the event, suggesting that both sides were making an effort to maintain diplomatic civility. Furthermore, Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has recently returned to the political scene, struck a conciliatory tone in interviews with Indian media, expressing a desire to rebuild trust between the two countries.

But as always, the hope generated by these diplomatic gestures was quickly overshadowed by violence. The attack on an Army vehicle in Jammu and Kashmir, and the targeting of unarmed labourers, sent a clear message: elements within Pakistan’s establishment remain determined to prevent any real progress in India-Pakistan relations.

The Kartarpur Corridor

One of the few areas where India and Pakistan have managed to maintain cooperation despite broader tensions is the Kartarpur Corridor. The corridor, which was inaugurated in November 2019, allows Indian Sikh pilgrims to visit one of their holiest sites, the Gurdwara Darbar Sahib, in Pakistan without a visa. It has been hailed as a symbol of hope and a rare example of successful diplomacy between the two nations.

In October 2024, India and Pakistan agreed to extend the validity of the Kartarpur Corridor Agreement for another five years, ensuring that Sikh pilgrims can continue to access the site. While the corridor is primarily a religious initiative, its continued operation through periods of heightened tension highlights the potential for confidence-building measures. However, the Kartarpur Corridor remains an exception, not the rule. Broader cooperation on trade, security, and political issues has remained elusive, as proxy militant groups ensure that any progress made on one front is quickly undone.

The missed opportunities

Numerous attempts were made for reconciliation between India and Pakistan through several tiers including people-to-people contacts, however, progress and cost of these missed opportunities have been devastating.

The two countries have spent decades locked in a cycle of hostility, mistrust, and violence, with little to show for it. Pakistan’s refusal to acknowledge its role in supporting terrorism has only deepened the divide. Whether it was the 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, or more recent skirmishes in Kashmir, Pakistan has consistently denied responsibility leading to no way for dialogue and diplomacy.

It has damaged not only its relationship with India but also its standing in the international community. Many countries now see Pakistan as a supporter of terrorism, which has hurt its global reputation. Economically, this has made it difficult for Pakistan to attract foreign investment. As a result, Pakistan has become increasingly dependent on China through projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, even China has faced losses from terrorist attacks in Pakistan, and with China now improving its relations with India, it is likely they would prefer Pakistan to follow a similar path toward stability and peace and would like to see their projects and people safe in the country.

Pakistan’s Internal Struggles

The internal situation in Pakistan has become increasingly awful in recent years. The country is grappling with one of the worst economic crises in its history, rising inflation, a depreciating currency, and shrinking foreign reserves. Its political system is also in turmoil, with frequent leadership changes and an ever-growing gap between the civilian government and the military establishment.

In the present world order, which is increasingly marked by geopolitical shifts and rising violence, Pakistan’s need for stability is more urgent than ever. For both nations, mending relations could bring much-needed economic and political benefits not only for Pakistan but for the whole of South Asia. However, this hope must be strengthened with realism, as history has shown that internal and external forces can easily derail progress.

This power dynamic between civilian government and military in Pakistan remains one of the greatest obstacles to peace between the two countries. The road to peace continues to remain at a distance, full of obstacles and will require sustained commitment and trust from both sides to navigate these challenges effectively.

Author is National Editor, Greater Kashmir.