Indo-China Warming up
India and China have started looking at new opportunities to foster mutual trust and benefits in the changed world order. The two Asian giants have realized that their increased cooperation can set a new axis in the world around which the world will revolve.
There could be two things that motivated Delhi and Beijing to think of this – (a) India and China have seen the fruits of dialogue and diplomacy in resolving the contentious issues, and the other (b) could be the way American President Donald Trump is attempting to set new world order, suiting his country’s interests. The actions announced by Trump have grave potential for both China and India, as also for the rest of the world, which is wondering what next?
It was known that Trump will undo most of decisions of his predecessor Joe Biden’s administration but what was not known is the way he has upended the American approach on Ukraine, where he has renewed his friendship with the Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and outrightly rejected the claims of Ukraine for a seat at the negotiation table set up to end the three-year conflict that shook the world, and made many countries to bleed economically. The supply chains were disrupted. The global food security came under severe threat. Trump has laid out his own vision of resolution of the conflict. He blamed Ukraine for starting the war and denounced president Volodymr Zelensky as “dictator.” His statements reflect his worldview of the things that sit at odds with the international community’s understanding of the issues.
The pivot has shifted in the geopolitical landscape and it is being felt in Asia. Against this backdrop China and India are expected to find a common ground to maintain their position. China and India have seen both challenges and opportunities in the times and changing political and diplomatic landscape in the world.
China and America have their own contours of trade and tariff war. At the same time there are hints that the two countries may revisit their relationship which started with the help of Pakistan. Despite ups and downs in their relations all these decades. China has benefited a lot because of the trade with America, especially owing to Permanent Normal Trade Relation ( PNTR) which it was granted in May 2000.
There are now voices in the US Congress seeking revocation of the status. If Trump decides to do away with PNTR, it will not only increase tariff on the Chinese products but also to the products from other countries. India, the second largest trade partner of the US (118.29 bn dollars) after China (118.41 bn dollars), will also get impacted. Trump already has made it clear that he would go in for reciprocal tariff with India. This should make India and China to navigate on the new geopolitical terrain.
Both China and India have shown a lot of sagacity in dealing with the contentious issues and resolving them by sitting across the table. This was established the way two countries brought curtains down on more than four-year-old military standoff along the Line of Actual Control or LAC, in eastern Ladakh. The crisis which appeared intractable was resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. This process can be carried on further to achieve more desirable results in the bilateral relations between the two Asian giants. If India has to factor China in its diplomatic and political pursuits, China too cannot ignore India’s rising potential in the international affairs. Bilateral ties are equally important and imperative for the both.
India and China are members of BRICS, G 20, SCO - the groupings that have shaped their own world view and helped resolve many issues within themselves and outside of it. The prestige of these groupings will grow further as the fissures have started appearing in G-7 grouping, where America, Canada, and Europe are now striking discordant notes on almost every issue-be it trade, NATO and stand on the Ukraine war. There are sufficient indications that Trump would like to carry on with this kind of politics in the years to come. These policies, as MAGA legacy, will travel beyond his current term, which as per American conventions, will be his last.
The hints of a pragmatic shift in India-China relations could be seen in the talks between foreign minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in South African city of Johannesburg on the side lines of G20 foreign ministers’ meeting on February 21. Their remarks are encouraging as both of them have committed to improve their ties and cooperation. In very specific and mutual trust-building observations, Indian foreign minister remarked: “India and China are members of the G 20, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and BRICS. There are also regional and global issues of mutual interest, where an exchange of perspectives will be to our mutual benefit.”
Wang Yi, as quoted by the Global Times, said that “the restoration of mutual trust and the realization of cooperation between China and India meet the shared expectations of both peoples. Both sides should follow the consensus reached by the two heads of the state, ensuring that bilateral relations remain on the right track. China is willing to work with India to plan the commemoration of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations , injecting new momentum into the development of bilateral ties.”
This music-to-ear remarks by the two foreign ministers assumes greater significance because the two countries resolved an extraordinarily tough situation on LAC with their diplomatic skills. Now in the changed world order, the two countries have made a beginning in mutual cooperation mode.
These hints of improving ties can have tremendous positive impact on the situation in Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. The eastern Ladakh is looking for a period of big relief after the resolution of the military standoff along the LAC. The situation had become particularly alarming after the June 15/16 Galwan Valley clashes between the two armies left 20 Indian soldiers dead, though China never came out with exact number of casualties it suffered. Now, when the things are warming up, it can be hoped that there is a permanent stability on the borders with no scope for unpredictability.
The bifurcation of the state of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories of Ladakh, and J&K , brought changes on the geographical map, but the inherent challenges remained undiminished. During the military standoff with China, several column of troops deployed in Rajouri-Poonch were diverted to Ladakh for cementing defences along LAC.
There is yet another area which both Beijing and Delhi can work together. They can share their experiences and strategies in counter terrorism. Chinese nationals were attacked and killed in Pakistan. The security assurances given by Pakistani government to Beijing have not fructified. India, of course is victim of cross-border terrorism emanating from across the border. The two countries can work together to persuade Pakistan to put a lock on its terror factories. China should understand that an all-weather friend doesn’t use the tools of terror to disturb and disrupt friend’s interests. There is an atmosphere of terrorism in Pakistan. China knows it, that’s why it had warned Pakistan that such acts of terror against its nationals would not be tolerated. The counter terrorism area needs to be explored. It will be mutually beneficial to the two countries.
