Indo-China Thaw

The Indian and Chinese troops are back to their pre-April 2020 patrolling points in Despang  stirring a positive hope that it will happen in Demchok soon . Despang and Demchok were the last of many of friction points at the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh, which was once part of the majestic state of Jammu and Kashmir.

The resumption of Patrolling in Despang  in the agreed areas between China and India  has opened gates for further improvement in relations between the two countries which  had turned quite frosty after the military standoff marked  Himalayan high-tensions.

It was the maturity of the   leadership  of  two countries that brought  about an end to the tense military standoff in eastern Ladakh. This standoff had caused lot of fissures and frictions in the overall relationship since April 2020. The tensions on the borders traveled to the heartland and massive military strategies and movements  were applied to ensure that the situation doesn’t go out of control. A couple of days after the agreement on disengagement and de-escalation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese president  Xi Jinping  met in the Russian heritage city of Kazan on the sidelines of BRICS summit, in which both resolved to move forward.

PM Modi was very clear in his stand that for “stable, predictable and amicable bilateral relations between India and China  as two neighbours and the two largest nations on earth, will have  a  positive impact on regional and global peace and prosperity,” and he added: “ It will contribute to a multi-polar Asia and a multi-polar world .” The two leaders, a statement by Ministry of external Affairs  said, “ underlined the need to progress bilateral relations from a strategic and long-term perspective, enhance strategic communication and explore cooperation to address developmental challenges.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping  told PM Modi that rapprochement was in the fundamental interests of both countries and  insisted that China and India “ should set an example for  the developing countries.”

This thaw and visibly pleasing optics  tell a story of their own . But the moot question is, what next?

On the domestic front, this  resolution of the standoff should lead to improvement in ties with China. The primary focus would be to define the real-time boundaries between India and China. At the moment, the escalation has been avoided and disengagement is in progress, but dealing with the boundary issue along the LAC is a much harder task than anyone could think of. Sometimes vagueness on such critical issues is a luxury in geopolitics when the countries don’t have to defend clearly demarcated border. The topography that runs for miles in Himalayas, it is very, very difficult to demarcate border on the ground. It is humanly impossible to draw a dividing line. Satellite mapping may be of some help.

For decades, the two countries have not been able to resolve their differences  as to where the boundary runs. There are interpretations but no clear line. This unprecedentedly long military standoff  of more than four and a half years was a manifestation of the unsettled boundary issue. It was partly because the Indian leadership  until the arrival of 2014  was unsure of itself. It lacked confidence to take bold decisions. The leadership was  scared of touching Dragon  and telling it that there are issues to be resolved as per the records. Big rocks and rivers defined the LAC. The leadership of that era was a hostage to the 1962 military debacle – India lost not only war but had to accept the loss of thousands of kilometers of its  territory, including Aksai Chin, a grand strategic feature, which both countries covet.

There are many skeptics who see it as a compulsion on the part of Beijing and Delhi. China is facing economic crisis of high magnitude  as the global investors are shifting their capital elsewhere. The biggest worry for China  at the moment is the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. Whether Democratic candidate  Kamala Harris makes it to the post  as first woman president of the US, or her rival Donald Trump romps home for a second time, the fact remains that neither of them is favourably inclined toward  China.

Chinese experts are busy in analysing the possible results and impact on their country. This is a crucial question for them to ponder, especially in the light of the continuing conflicts on Russia-Ukraine front, Israel-Gaza conflict since October, 2023 has spread across to Lebanon and Iran. The world has become a dangerous place. China-America relations will have a lot of bearing on the global situation.

Another striking fact  that both the US and China, separately or jointly cannot move ahead in easing tensions and conflicts across the world without India’s help. In fact, the Indian role is much higher than Washington and Beijing as it doesn’t carry tag of partisanship.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's role as a leading global statesman whose commitment to peace in the world is acknowledged and hailed by many countries. Modi has made several attempts to resolve the Russian-Ukraine conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a recent interview with Times of India, said that “he believes Prime Minister Narendra Modi can help end the war with Russia. This is the huge value of him in any conflict. This is a huge value of India.” Having said this, PM Modi had to lead by example, so he got the contentious issue of border standoff  with China resolved first. This is a big boost to his image as a peace-maker.

But the task doesn’t stop here. The improvement in ties with China have to be on basis of equality, for that Chinese President XI Jinping and Modi will have to traverse on same path leading to global peace. That also requires that all their outstanding issues must be resolved rapidly in the spirit of mutual trust.