India's Foreign Policy Imperatives

The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by the downfall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, has introduced significant uncertainty in South Asia. This shift demands a coordinated strategy between India and the United States to counterbalance China's expanding influence, which threatens to reshape the region's geopolitical landscape.

Geopolitical recalibration

As Khaleda Zia, known for her anti-India stance, is poised to lead the new government, the previous Indian strategy of unwavering support for Hasina has backfired. New Delhi now faces the prospect of an administration likely to reverse Hasina’s pro-India policies. Hasina’s allegations of U.S. interference further underscore the need for India to abandon its solitary approach and work closely with the US to address this new reality.

For China and Pakistan, an anti-India government in Bangladesh represents a strategic win. The US must not see Hasina's ouster as merely a human rights victory but recognize its broader implications for regional stability. A collaborative Indo-US strategy is essential to counter China’s expansion in South Asia, where it has already established a strong presence in countries like the Maldives, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and its traditional ally, Pakistan.

India’s foreign policy at a crossroads

India’s "Neighbourhood First" policy requires a strategic overhaul to effectively counter China’s moves. Beijing’s presence along the Line of Control (LOC) and its support for anti-India factions reflect its intent to undermine India’s regional influence. While India’s independent foreign policy, demonstrated by its strong ties with Russia despite US sanctions, has served it well, the shifting allegiances of its neighbours demand a more nuanced approach. The US, with its deepening ties with India, remains a crucial partner in addressing these challenges.

Critics argue that India’s previous engagement with Bangladesh exemplifies the risks of an "all eggs in one basket" approach. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has allowed it to entrench its influence in Bangladesh through debt diplomacy. India’s exclusive support for Hasina left little room for dialogue with the opposition, particularly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), now set to assume power. This diplomatic oversight has allowed Pakistan’s ISI and China to strengthen their foothold in Dhaka, posing significant challenges to India’s interests.

The uncertain future of the free trade agreement

With a new regime in Dhaka, India faces the challenge of safeguarding the future of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which is crucial for bilateral trade. In the fiscal year 2023-24, bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh reached $13 billion. However, the ongoing political crisis casts doubt over the future of FTA negotiations, which had shown promise in boosting trade between the two nations.

Trade disruptions have already surfaced, with over $300 million in trade affected and exports from India to Bangladesh significantly curtailed. The interim government in Bangladesh must address these trade concerns to prevent further economic fallout. Mohammad Yunus, heading the interim government, faces the critical task of stabilizing trade relations amidst this political turmoil.

Implications for SAARC Nations

India’s experiences with other SAARC nations highlight the need for a more adaptable foreign policy. In the Maldives, the rise of President Mohamed Muizzu, who campaigned on an anti-India platform, reflects the risks of India’s support for former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. Similarly, in Nepal, China’s strategic investments have paid off, with pro-China leaders now holding significant power, a trend that began during my posting in Nepal in the 1990s.

Sri Lanka offers another lesson: India’s distant approach towards the Rajapaksa brothers created animosity, even as India provided crucial support during the country’s economic collapse. China’s infrastructure investments have solidified its influence in the Maldives, but India’s timely assistance has earned it significant goodwill in Sri Lanka.

In Myanmar, India’s balancing act between the military junta and democratic forces led by Aung San Suu Kyi has left the latter disillusioned, highlighting the complexities of regional alliances.

A call for strategic unity

Given these developments, it is imperative that India and the United States develop a joint action plan to counter China’s growing influence in South Asia. This strategy should include strengthening strategic partnerships, enhancing cooperation within the Quad, promoting alternative trade and infrastructure initiatives, expanding joint military operations, collaborating on technology, and supporting sovereignty in Asia. Such a comprehensive approach is essential to mitigate China’s influence in SAARC countries and ensure a free, open Indo-Pacific.

(The writer is a strategic affairs columnist and political analyst based in Shimla.)

by: K.S. Tomar