‘India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2023’

New Delhi, June 26: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has released its annual assessment of global armaments, disarmament, and international security, highlighting a significant expansion in nuclear arsenals worldwide in 2023.

The SIPRI Yearbook 2024 reports an increase in the development and reliance on nuclear weapons, with the total global inventory estimated at 12,121 warheads as of January 2024. Approximately 9,585 of these are in military stockpiles, ready for potential use, with about 3,904 deployed with missiles and aircraft.

A concerning 2,100 of these warheads are on high operational alert, predominantly belonging to Russia and the USA, with China now believed to have some warheads on high alert for the first time.

COUNTRY-SPECIFIC DEVELOPMENTS

UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA

Together, the United States and Russia hold nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. In 2023, their military stockpiles remained relatively stable, although Russia is estimated to have increased its deployed warheads by around 36. Transparency regarding nuclear forces has decreased since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite the deployment of new nuclear-armed or capable systems, the dismantling of Cold War-era weapons continues.

CHINA

China’s nuclear arsenal saw significant growth, increasing from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024. China is also believed to have begun deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime. This expansion, the fastest among nuclear-armed states, is expected to continue, with China potentially reaching parity with Russia and the USA in terms of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by the end of the decade.

INDIA AND PAKISTAN
India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2023, focusing on developing new nuclear delivery systems capable of targeting China. Pakistan continued to develop its nuclear capabilities in parallel. Both countries are working on deploying multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, enhancing their nuclear deterrence capabilities.

UNITED KINGDOM

The UK’s nuclear arsenal did not increase in 2023, but future growth is anticipated following a 2021 government announcement to raise its warhead limit from 225 to 260. The UK has also ceased public disclosure of its nuclear weapon quantities.
FRANCE
France progressed with developing a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile in 2023. The country also continues to upgrade its existing nuclear systems.

NORTH KOREA
North Korea has increased its nuclear arsenal to approximately 50 warheads, with the potential to reach up to 90. Despite no nuclear test explosions in 2023, North Korea tested a short-range ballistic missile from a rudimentary silo and developed land-attack cruise missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. The focus on tactical nuclear weapons suggests a strategy for early use in conflict.

ISRAEL
Israel, while not publicly acknowledging its nuclear arsenal, is believed to be modernising its capabilities and upgrading its plutonium production reactor at Dimona.

GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AND NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY
The SIPRI report underscores a significant deterioration in nuclear arms control and disarmament diplomacy in 2023. Russia’s suspension of the New START treaty and withdrawal from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) have strained relations with the USA.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have further weakened nuclear diplomacy, with Russia conducting tactical nuclear weapon drills near Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict disrupting efforts to establish a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons.

Dan Smith, SIPRI Director, emphasized the growing dangers of the current geopolitical climate, citing political rivalries, economic inequalities, ecological disruptions, and an accelerating arms race.

The SIPRI Yearbook 2024 calls for global powers to step back and reflect on the escalating threats to international security.