India: Not to be boxed

In a world already reeling from trade wars, energy crises, and geopolitical realignments, this August brought a new flashpoint: the United States imposed a 50% tariff on Indian imports. This came as a shock to many, especially considering the two countries’ growing strategic proximity in recent years – with successful events like ‘Howdy, Modi’ and ‘Namaste Trump.’ The Trump administration’s move, citing India’s continued imports of discounted Russian oil, has unsettled trade dynamics and tested New Delhi’s diplomatic resolve. In this context, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin, China, assumed added importance. It was his first visit to China in seven years and marked a pivotal moment in India’s recalibration of its international priorities.

The widely circulated images of Prime Minister Narendra Modi standing alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the SCO Summit speak louder than the summit’s official declarations. They reflect a powerful message of strategic recalibration in a rapidly polarizing world. Despite unresolved border tensions with China and the complex dynamics of global alliances, India’s presence in this trio signals that it refuses to be boxed into binary choices between East and West.

For China and Russia, PM Modi’s presence lends legitimacy to their vision of a multipolar world order, even as India maintains its independent trajectory. The imagery is also a subtle reminder to the West—particularly the United States—that India’s partnership cannot be taken for granted.

The joint SCO declaration strongly opposed “unilateral coercive measures,” a not-so-subtle jab at the U.S. tariffs. Leaders emphasized the importance of multilateralism, trade fairness, and non-interference in internal affairs. President Xi Jinping proposed the creation of an SCO Development Bank, while Russia’s Vladimir Putin called for “greater connectivity and trade flows” within the bloc. For India, this was an opportunity to reassert its global relevance, not as a junior partner to the West, but as a sovereign power navigating complex alliances.
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s foreign and economic policy has been firmly anchored in the principle of “India First”—a doctrine that places national interest, strategic autonomy, and self-reliance above traditional alignments or ideological camps. Domestically, “India First” translates into initiatives such as Atmanirbhar Bharat (Self-Reliant India) and Make in India. This approach was evident in India’s refusal to halt discounted Russian oil imports despite Western sanctions, and in its balancing act between the West and Global South platforms like BRICS and the SCO.

A closer alignment between India, China, and Russia—even if limited to strategic cooperation within forums like the SCO—would be deeply unsettling for the United States, as it directly challenges the foundations of the U.S.-led global order. These three countries represent not only some of the world’s largest populations and military powers, but also vast energy, resource, and trade networks across Eurasia. While India has traditionally been seen as a democratic counterweight to authoritarian regimes like China and Russia, any indication that New Delhi is willing to work alongside Beijing and Moscow on shared platforms weakens Washington’s narrative of a world divided between democracies and autocracies.

A cohesive India-China-Russia axis would make it much harder for the U.S. to isolate any one of them or dictate terms globally. Moreover, such unity could accelerate de-dollarization, reduce American influence in Asia, and push forward an alternative, multipolar world order—directly challenging the U.S.’s post-World War II hegemony.

Strategic Space: India’s Pivot and Sovereign Approach
Behind the optics of high-level diplomacy, India’s approach at the SCO summit reflects its firm pursuit of strategic independence in an increasingly polarized world. New Delhi is actively diversifying its trade partnerships, looking beyond traditional allies to build stronger economic ties with regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. On the home front, initiatives such as Make in India 2.0 are being used to strengthen domestic industries and reduce vulnerability to global disruptions. At the same time, the government is focusing on structural reforms in areas like manufacturing, export logistics, and innovation to boost competitiveness and cushion against external economic pressures. Prime Minister Modi’s reaffirmation of India’s “special and privileged” partnership with Russia, along with record-breaking bilateral trade figures, also signaled India’s intent to move away from over-reliance on any single global bloc—choosing instead a path that aligns with its own long-term interests.

What It Means for Kashmir

For Kashmir, an economy interwoven with handicrafts, small-scale manufacturing, and tourism, the tariff threat casts shadow though not that significant—particularly in sectors like gems and jewelry, where artisans and exporters stand vulnerable. On the other hand, the SCO’s growing focus on regional connectivity, cross-border tourism, and cultural collaboration presents a potential path toward deeper engagement in South Asia.

Initiatives like the promotion of the religious Yatras and the push for eased visa regimes point toward a softening of barriers between nations—something that could benefit even traditionally tense regions. Notably, the summit’s final statement included a clear condemnation of terrorism, explicitly mentioning the recent attack in Pahalgam, which not only echoes India’s position but also brings Kashmir’s trauma into international consciousness.

Prime Minister Modi’s call for SCO nations to invest in India’s startup and innovation landscape could also open doors for Kashmir—if local leadership ensures the right policy support and infrastructure to connect the region with these emerging opportunities. While SCO’s geopolitical posture offers symbolic pushback to Western pressure, internal contradictions—India-China border tensions, India-Pakistan animosity, and divergent interests within SCO—limit its strategic coherence. Still, from Kashmir’s vantage, greater Indian engagement with Eurasian trade corridors, better connectivity, and vision for inclusive development hint at long-term promise—if such efforts are anchored by local investment, infrastructure, and social inclusion.

For Pakistan, the changing equations among India, China, and Russia pose both strategic challenges and diplomatic dilemmas. As a founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and a long-time ally of both China and the U.S., Islamabad finds itself walking a delicate tightrope. On one hand, a stronger India-China-Russia axis could dilute Pakistan’s influence within the SCO, especially if the grouping starts focusing more on connectivity, trade, and counter-terrorism initiatives that sideline Pakistan’s core geopolitical interests, such as its position on Kashmir.

On the other hand, Pakistan has long relied on China for economic and military support—particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—and continues to receive U.S. military assistance in specific areas. But as India asserts itself more confidently on platforms like the SCO, and if it gains backing from both Russia and China on regional stability and anti-terrorism efforts, Pakistan could find itself increasingly isolated diplomatically. Moreover, if SCO member states begin to prioritize economic cooperation over security disputes, Pakistan’s habitual use of the platform to raise bilateral issues like Kashmir may lose traction. In short, a united and pragmatic India-China-Russia alignment could leave Pakistan strategically sidelined, with diminishing leverage on the regional and global stage.