India at the Geopolitical Crossroads

The Bottom Line: Trump's aggressive tariff strategy toward India—imposing 50% tariffs and threatening secondary sanctions—has fundamentally disrupted 25 years of bipartisan U.S. efforts to build India as a strategic counterweight to China. This crisis presents India with its most significant foreign policy challenge since the Cold War, potentially forcing a strategic realignment that could reshape the global order.

The partnership under siege

What began as Trump's second honeymoon with Modi has rapidly deteriorated into the most serious crisis in modern U.S.-India relations. Trump has "halted trade negotiations with India and imposed a baseline 25 percent tariff while giving China another extension," announced secondary penalties on India's oil purchases from Russia, and "threatened still more tariffs on India for its participation in the BRICS grouping".

The scope of deterioration is unprecedented. As one analysis notes, Trump's "sudden, inexplicable hostility toward India reverses policies pursued under five administrations, including his own previous one". For the first time in two decades, "Trump's actions, statements, and coercive tone have made relations with the United States a combustible domestic political issue in India".

China's unintended victory

Perhaps the most strategic consequence is how Trump's India policy inadvertently advances Chinese interests. Without clear U.S. support, "the cost of resisting Beijing is too high" for India, leading to a "pragmatic acceptance of Chinese dominance in key areas of trade and security".

The shift is already visible. Modi plans to visit China later this month "for the first time in seven years," with Chinese state media citing a "warming" of ties. Since Trump took office, "National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar have all visited China," with each trip culminating in pledges to normalize relations.

Trump has achieved what "years of salami-slicing along its disputed border with India in the Himalayas could not: He has made pragmatic submission appear cheaper" than continued resistance to Beijing.

The energy security dilemma

At the heart of the crisis lies India's energy security. Russia accounts for around 35% of India's oil imports, which India purchases at a discount, making replacement both "difficult and expensive". India argues that its purchases from Russia have "kept global oil prices lower, as it's not competing with Western nations for Middle Eastern oil"—a position previously understood by Western nations.

The paradox is glaring. While Trump targets India over Russian oil purchases, "China—which buys even more Russian oil than India—has received a reprieve from high US tariffs for now". This differential treatment has prompted questions about Trump's strategic coherence.

The Russia hedge deepens

Rather than bowing to pressure, India has doubled down on its Russia relationship. Modi has invited Putin to visit India later this year, with both leaders reaffirming their "commitment to further deepen the India-Russia Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership". For Russia, Putin's engagement with India "signals that the West's efforts to diplomatically and politically isolate Russia have seemingly failed".

This relationship extends beyond traditional defence cooperation to include "increasing bilateral trade and cooperation in the Russian Far East, the Arctic, the Northern Sea Route and increasing traffic along the Chennai-Vladivostok economic corridor".

BRICS as alternative architecture

The crisis has accelerated India's engagement with alternative multilateral frameworks. With Indonesia's addition as the 11th member and thirteen countries becoming "partner countries," BRICS now represents "over 40% of the world's population" and "37.3% of global GDP".

While Trump has declared BRICS "dead" and threatened 100% tariffs on countries pursuing de-dollarization, the expansion continues. For India, BRICS offers potential alternatives to Western-dominated institutions, though it must navigate China's growing influence within the grouping.

Strategic autonomy under pressure

India's traditional multialignment strategy faces unprecedented strain. "To protect itself from the capriciousness of the Trump administration, India will not abandon multialignment but pursue it all the more forcefully". However, "From India's perspective, strategic autonomy now means choosing which dependency hurts less".

The response includes efforts to "strengthen partnerships with European countries and major Asian powers, such as Japan and South Korea, who face their own balancing dilemmas because of the unreliability of the Trump administration".

Border Tensions Remain

Despite diplomatic progress with China, fundamental challenges persist. While recent agreements have led to military disengagement in eastern Ladakh, "over 100,000 troops remain deployed on both sides, and rebuilding political trust will take time". Intelligence assessments suggest "sporadic border clashes likely into 2025", indicating that territorial disputes remain unresolved.

This ongoing tension limits how far India can pivot toward China, even under American pressure.

Domestic political implications

The crisis has profound domestic ramifications. "The opposition, the media, and the Indian public have put the government on notice to avoid showing weakness in the face of Trump's threats". Most significantly, "the domestic factors in the United States that appeared to guarantee good relations with India have not slowed their precipitous decline: the influential Indian diaspora in the United States seems powerless".

Future pathways

India faces three potential strategic pathways:

Tactical accommodation: Gradual reduction of Russian oil imports while diversifying energy sources and deepening partnerships with Europe, Japan, and other middle powers to maintain strategic space.

BRICS-plus pivot: Embracing the expanded BRICS framework more enthusiastically while working to prevent Chinese dominance within the grouping.

Enhanced strategic autonomy: Developing a more sophisticated form of non-alignment based on middle power coalitions, technological self-reliance, and economic diversification.

Global order implications

The broader consequences extend far beyond bilateral relations. As one analysis warns, "The destruction of the liberal international order does not presage multipolarity but rather consolidates the bipolarity that will subsist amid increasing entropy in global politics". Trump's approach may inadvertently accelerate China's rise while undermining democratic coalitions.

This raises fundamental questions about America's pivot to Asia, as "successive governments in New Delhi have embraced closer ties with Washington" over the past two decades.

The path forward

While "India will survive this geopolitical whirlwind with some deft diplomacy and patience," the "turbulent period is likely to have several long-term consequences for New Delhi's foreign policy and strategic outlook".

India's challenge echoes Cold War-era predicaments but with far greater complexity. Unlike the bipolar world of the 1950s-60s, today's multipolar environment offers both more opportunities and greater risks. The current crisis may ultimately strengthen India's strategic autonomy by forcing diversified partnerships, but the immediate risk is that Trump's approach could create the very multipolar world dominated by authoritarian powers that American strategy sought to prevent.

India's response will shape not only its own future but the broader trajectory of global order. The choices made in New Delhi over the coming months may determine whether the 21st century witnesses genuine multipolarity with space for democratic middle powers, or new bipolarity forcing nations to choose sides. This is indeed a great reset—but one whose ultimate beneficiary may be neither America nor China, but rather a new form of strategic autonomy that transcends great power constraints.