How J&K’s Rajya Sabha elections could play out
Srinagar, Oct 11: The Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir, set for October 24, mark a defining moment in the Union Territory’s political landscape as it is for the first time since the erstwhile State’s reorganisation in 2019 that J&K would elect four members to the upper house of the Parliament, restoring its federal representation after more than four years.
Beyond the numbers, these elections are shaping up as a crucial test of party strength, alliance coordination, and strategic manoeuvring in the Legislative Assembly, with the outcome likely to influence the region’s parliamentary influence for the next six years.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has issued three separate notifications.
The first covers the seat vacated by Mir Muhammad Fayaz, the second pertains to Shamsher Singh, and the third addresses two seats vacated by Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmad Laway.
Each notification is treated as an independent election, meaning MLAs vote separately for each seat, with no transfer of votes between notifications.
Jammu and Kashmir’s Legislative Assembly comprises 88 MLAs, with two seats currently vacant in Budgam and Nagrota.
While the elections use the single transferable vote system, the independence of each notification ensures that every contest is self-contained.
The quota of votes required to win depends on the number of seats in the notification: 45 votes for the single-seat notifications and roughly 29 votes per seat for the two-seat third notification.
The NC-Congress alliance, with a combined strength of 53 MLAs, dominates the electoral arithmetic, while the BJP holds 28 MLAs.
People’s Democratic Party has 3 MLAs, Peoples Conference 1 MLA, Awami Ittehad Party 1 MLA, Aam Aadmi Party 1 MLA, and independents.
In the first notification, concerning Mir Muhammad Fayaz’s seat, the NC-Congress alliance comfortably exceeds the quota, while the BJP falls short.
A similar scenario is expected for the second notification covering Shamsher Singh’s seat.
The third notification, covering the two seats vacated by Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmad Laway, is more competitive.
The NC-Congress alliance can secure one seat by allocating 29 votes, while the BJP, with 28 MLAs, is likely to claim the other.
The remaining 24 votes from the alliance can ensure victory for the second NC-Congress candidate.
Smaller parties and independents, including Mehraj Malik (currently in jail under PSA), could influence the outcome of the fourth seat, making strategic coordination essential.
Reports indicate that Congress, with six MLAs, is insisting on one safe seat, refusing to contest a losing candidate.
Excluding Congress, the NC, along with independents allied to it, has 47 MLAs, can comfortably secure three of the four Rajya Sabha seats.
The fourth seat remains under negotiation with Congress.
Senior NC leader Ali Muhammad Sagar confirmed ongoing seat-sharing talks, while the Congress, led by Tariq Hamid Karra in J&K, has deferred its decision to the national leadership, expected to finalise the nominee after consultations with Rahul Gandhi.
The NC has announced three nominees - Choudhary Muhammad Ramzan from north Kashmir, with decades of grassroots political experience; Shammi Oberoi, representing the Sikh minority and serving as party treasurer; and Sajad Ahmad Kichloo from Kishtwar, representing the Chenab Valley.
The fourth seat remains under discussion with Congress.
While the BJP contests all four seats, it realistically targets at least one, relying on its 28 MLAs and potential support from independents.
The indirect election format allows parties to coordinate strategies, including cross-voting, making coordination critical.
Beyond arithmetic, these elections are significant for restoring J&K’s voice in national legislation.
When polling concludes on October 24, four members will be elected to represent Jammu and Kashmir in the Rajya Sabha for the next six years.
Three seats are likely to go to the NC-Congress alliance, while the fourth is likely to be decided by strategic coordination within the third notification.
So, these elections are both a procedural necessity and a pivotal test of political strength, shaping parliamentary influence and coalition dynamics in J&K for years to come.
