High-stakes Rajya Sabha polls in J&K today
Srinagar, Oct 23: Battle lines are firmly drawn as Jammu and Kashmir braces for one of its most closely watched political contests in recent years – the election to four Rajya Sabha seats scheduled for Friday.
The National Conference (NC)-led alliance, backed by the Congress and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), is locking horns with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a high-stakes faceoff that could redefine political equations within the region’s power structure.
The NC has fielded four candidates – Chowdhary Muhammad Ramzan, Sajjad Ahmad Kichloo, Shammi Oberoi, and Imran Nabi Dar - signalling its determination to make a clean sweep.
On the other hand, the BJP has nominated Sat Sharma, Ali Muhammad Mir, and Rakesh Mahajan, hoping to secure at least a seat through deft floor management and possible cross-voting.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has issued three separate notifications for these polls – the first for the seat vacated by Mir Muhammad Fayaz, the second for Shamsher Singh Manhas’s seat, and the third covering two vacancies created by Ghulam Nabi Azad and Nazir Ahmad Laway.
Each notification is treated as an independent election, meaning MLAs will vote separately for each seat, and the votes will not be transferable between them.
J&K Legislative Assembly currently has 88 members, with two seats – Budgam and Nagrota - lying vacant.
Under the single transferable vote system, a candidate requires 45 votes to win in the single-seat elections and about 29 votes per seat in the two-seat contests.
Numerically, the NC-Congress alliance holds a clear upper hand with a combined strength of 53 MLAs, while the BJP has 28.
The remaining seats are held by the PDP with three MLAs, People’s Conference (PC) with one seat is likely to abstain, Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) with one, AAP’s one seat, and one independent member.
These smaller blocs are expected to play a key role in determining the fate of the fourth seat.
After days of uncertainty, both the Congress and the PDP have finally decided to support the NC.
Congress had earlier accused the NC of reneging on an understanding to offer a “safe seat” to the party, while the PDP had kept its cards close to the chest.
However, PDP President Mehbooba Mufti, after meeting NC’s Shammi Oberoi and speaking with NC President Farooq Abdullah, announced support to the NC “for the larger cause of keeping the BJP away.”
While the first three seats appear within reach for the NC-Congress-PDP bloc, the fourth seat is expected to witness an intense contest.
The PDP’s three votes are now seen as crucial, with the BJP banking on its own tactical acumen and potential cross-voting to turn the tide.
Meanwhile, the BJP is banking on the organisational skills of the Leader of Opposition (LOP) in the Legislative Assembly, Sunil Sharma, and the possibility of strategic abstentions from rival MLAs to gain ground in the crucial contest. Party insiders said they remain hopeful of springing a surprise despite the numerical disadvantage.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) had issued the notification for the polls on October 6, with the last date for nominations on October 13, scrutiny on October 14, and withdrawals on October 16.
Voting will be held on Friday from 9 am to 4 pm, followed by counting at 5 pm.
Beyond the arithmetic, the Rajya Sabha election carries heavy political symbolism.
For the NC, a clean sweep would reaffirm its dominance and cement its alliance leadership ahead of future political battles. For the BJP, winning even one seat would represent a symbolic breakthrough, an assertion that it remains a formidable force in J&K’s evolving post-Article 370 landscape.
