Heatwave and electoral politics

As the ongoing heatwave is disallowing electoral politics related activities on a large scale, two major political parties are trying to register some kind of presence on the scene. Amid the soaring mercury level, they are attempting to generate the political heat. While other parties are busy in low key preparations, National Conference (NC) and BJP are separately making fresh claims regarding getting the majority and forming the next government.

NC Vice President and former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah claimed this while addressing a rally at Samba in Jammu. J&K BJP General Secretary (Organisation),  Ashok Koul,  also made a similar claim about his party at Dawar in Gurez and so did his party President Ravinder Raina in Jammu.

Whether or not the NC or  BJP succeed in their claims, but they would definitely try to atleast emerge as single largest party in case of a hung assembly. That way they will be in a position to form the government with the support of other party or parties.

Other than BJP and NC,  no other political party has claimed to form the government even as they are busy with the preparations for the assembly polls on a smaller scale due to hot weather conditions. Congress intends to give a tough fight to BJP in Jammu and win some seats in Kashmir also. PDP is also aiming at re-consolidating its position. The new political parties, Apni Party and People’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), who contested their first election (recent parliamentary poll) too are reviewing their performance and working on their weak points. Same is the case with People’s Conference. Political analysts view that the coming assembly polls may turn into the most important election in J&K given the high stakes involved; particularily  of some important stake holders. According to them, the spirit of electoral democracy will be under keen watch.

Most political parties are waiting for some relief from the ongoing heatwave, which is not allowing them to do activities on the scale  they want to do. The activities have remained confined to holding of party meetings and participation of senior leaders in these meetings. Sometimes a public rally or workers’ convention is held at any place.

After some relief from the heatwave the poll related activities will intensity.  Every political party will get busy and the coming months will be hectic as far as elections are concerned. Large scale campaigning was witnessed during the recent Lok Sabha polls in Jammu and Kashmir. Not only the major traditional parties but even other parties enthusiastically took part in the campaigning. Senior leaders of these parties addressed series of election rallies and road shows in different parts. Even the young crop of leaders were part of the campaigning. Two major political parties NC and BJP won two seats each, while the Baramulla seat was won by the jailed Awami Ittihad Party (AIP) leader Er Abdul Rashid. His  party is now eyeing the assembly polls too. There are also reports of some banned organisations, who have contested polls in the past, also intending to join the electoral fray directly ( if the ban is lifted) or indirectly. If they do so or if they are permitted to do so then the contest in assembly polls can become wider. Whether they get the public support or not and how much  support will become clear at election time. There is a general belief in political circles that their participation can affect some traditional parties, who used to get their votes in the past. If the banned parties themselves contest or support other parties, opposed to traditional parties, then the latter may find some difficulties in the poll arena. The surprise entry of Er Rashid in parliamentary elections in Baramulla, and his impressive victory took NC by surprise as Omar Abdullah lost by a big margin. After his defeat the senior NC leader said that the people of Baramulla constituency will remain unrepresented in the parliament as there are no indications of Er Rashid  being released in near future.

NC circles view that among all the political parties their party has done very well in the parliamentary polls and so it has more chances of getting a  majority and if not the majority but can be the single largest party. But they feel that Er Rashid like developments  in assembly polls may weaken their chances. PDP, which stood second in Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary constituencies,  have similar feelings as the party came at number 4 position in Baramulla. PDP right now is in the process of getting back some of its senior leaders, who had resigned and joined other parties three years back. Former law minister Syed Basharat Bukhari and ex- legislator, Khurshid Alam recently rejoined the PDP. If reports are to be believed then some more leaders are to  rejoin in coming time. By getting back the senior leaders, PDP will have senior candidates for assembly polls. The party is facing shortage of known faces for the electoral fray even as it is propping up the new and young faces as well.  NC has no shortage of  leaders to contest polls. It has already appointed constituencies’ incharges for assembly polls and they will likely get the mandate for assembly elections. However, slight changes in mandates here and there are not also being ruled out.

As far as BJP is concerned,  the party has no shortage of leaders in Jammu and infact some of its leaders will have to  struggle to get party tickets for assembly polls. In Kashmir if the party really contested then it would like to focus on some constituencies in particular and  try to field strong candidates there. J&K BJP was very much interested to take part in the parliamentary polls in  Kashmir also but the party’s central leadership finally decided against it and preferred to wait till the hearts of people are won. Subsequently, the like minded parties were supported. Will the same thing be repeated in assembly polls as well or the central leadership will go by the wish of J&K party leadership and contest in Kashmir? The BJP leaders say they have worked very hard in Kashmir during last three years and tried their level best to get the public support.  But political analysts say that going by the parliamentary polls results, the BJP has to work harder to get a foothold in Kashmir as the like minded parties supported by it could not do well in parliamentary polls.

Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP too could not perform well in parliamentary polls and its candidates lost their security deposits in the two constituencies, wherefrom they had contested. The party had supported Er Rashid in Baramulla. It is to be seen to whom the DPAP will support in assembly polls. Azad was very upset with traditional parties dubbing his party as B team of BJP. According to him the electoral politics in Kashmir is very different from that of the other parts of the country. He views that linking any local party negatively with any national party damages its electoral interests in Kashmir. 

Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir