Green Shoots of US-Taliban Diplomacy

U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Adam Boehler and former Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad made an unannounced visit to Kabul on March 20, 2025, where they met with the Taliban’s acting foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi. Perhaps the first visit by senior U.S. officials to the Afghan capital since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. The talks, as suggested by several media reports, were facilitated by Qatari mediation on the release of an American citizen, George Glezmann, an airline mechanic detained in Afghanistan for over two years. Within 24 hours, Glezmann was free, flown to Doha, and subsequently returned to the United States. Most of the analysts were quick to say that it was a deal lifting $20 million in bounties on three senior figures of the Haqqani Network, including Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, who was on the State Department’s list, Rewards for Justice website. Glezmann, as reported, is the third American national to be released by the Taliban this year, highlighting Qatar’s continuing role as a crucial intermediary in U.S.-Taliban diplomacy.

It has reignited speculation about Washington’s evolving relationship with the regime in Kabul. This development, coupled with the decision to lift the bounty on Taliban leaders such as Sirajuddin Haqqani, raises several questions about what comes next in U.S.-Afghanistan diplomacy. Is the West that usually follows the US finally going to reconsider its stand on Afghanistan and its interim government? Will Afghanistan’s frozen assets finally be released? Is the United States planning to reopen its US embassy in Kabul? Has Zalmay Khalilzad, the controversial Afghan-born diplomat who played a pivotal role in America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, once again become a key interlocutor between Washington and the Taliban?

The U.S. decision to remove the bounty on Haqqani and other Taliban leaders on the surface appears to be a goodwill gesture. However, a closer look suggests that Washington’s engagement with the Taliban has always been transactional, driven by counterterrorism concerns, security, and regional stability rather than economic interests.

Now, China and Russia, who in recent years have deepened their ties with the Taliban, are perhaps forcing the U.S. to rethink its strategy toward the war-torn nation. It is a known fact that China continues to make inroads into Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth. Beijing is already in advance negotiations with the Taliban in economic cooperation, the only country recognising the Taliban’s Ambassador in their country, and making gains in the untapped mineral sector, which includes an estimated $1 trillion worth of resources.

Russia, on the other hand, continues to position itself as a major diplomatic player in the region and would not like to see the US entering Afghanistan again. Russia, despite its heavy engagement in Ukraine, has expressed willingness to help ease tensions between the Taliban and Pakistan. Russian Ambassador to Pakistan Albert Khorev said on March 19, 2025, that Moscow is ready to facilitate talks through the “Moscow Format” if both parties consent. This Russian diplomatic effort aims to address ongoing disputes around security and border issues. Russia sees an opportunity to strengthen its regional influence, especially as tensions with the West over Ukraine persist.

The U.S. cannot afford to ignore Afghanistan indefinitely. Re-establishing a diplomatic presence in Kabul may not signify full recognition of the Taliban regime, but it would enable Washington to better monitor developments on the ground and potentially exert some influence over rebuilding relationships with the interim government.

Khalilzad’s return to diplomacy

Zalmay Khalilzad was earlier President Donald Trump’s chief negotiator with the Taliban. Surprisingly, he has now emerged as an important interlocutor in this evolving scenario. The Afghan-born diplomat has a long history of dealing with Kabul’s power players, both before and after the U.S. withdrawal. Zalmay Khalilzad’s reappearance alongside Glezmann upon the latter’s release in Kabul represents US signals that he remains still confident of Donald Trump and is a trusted channel of communication between Washington and the Taliban. But his track record is mixed. The 2020 Doha Agreement, which he helped broker, laid the groundwork for the U.S. military withdrawal but failed to ensure a stable transition. Many analysts worldwide blame him for overestimating the Taliban’s willingness to compromise, leading to the rapid fall of the Afghan government in 2021. Now, as he is again seen in the picture, speculation grows about his possible return as a U.S. envoy. Critics, however, warn that he may once again misjudge the Taliban’s true intentions.

Taliban’s gain

The recent US prisoner release and the bounty removal are somewhat seen as victories for the Taliban. It indicates that the U.S. is willing to engage, despite its rhetoric following the 2021 chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban, after its nearly three-and-a-half-year-old rule in Afghanistan, is longing for international recognition and acceptance from the multilateral organisations. Presently, no country has officially recognised their government. However, the relationship of several countries with the current interim Taliban government continues to grow and de facto opened their embassies, fully or partially reinforcing Taliban rule as well as their standing. Currently, seventeen embassies remain operational in Kabul, including those of China, Russia, and Japan.

Analysts see the Taliban’s advances as baby steps, yet again the Taliban leaders have achieved another objective: the removal of sanctions on some of the Taliban leaders. This will help the Taliban gain a footing to pursue its other goals, like lifting sanctions for other leaders as well as demanding the lifting of the freeze on its assets, allowing it to do international business. However, the fundamental question still remains: Will the Taliban reciprocate with meaningful reforms, or will they continue their hardline policies, particularly regarding women’s rights, women’s education and governance, which continues to remain one of the biggest issues with several multilateral organisations like the United Nations and many other developed countries?

Will the U.S. Reopen Its Embassy in Kabul?

The U.S. Embassy in Kabul has been abandoned since August 2021, when American diplomats were airlifted out during the Taliban’s takeover. However, media reports are suggesting that since the recent return of Zalmay Khalilzad from Kabul, where he met several leaders, cleanup efforts have begun at the compound walls of the US embassy, like whitewashing of walls, removing slogans fuelling speculation about a potential partial reopening of US embassy. Under the Trump administration, one is never sure what his next move could be. However, if the U.S. returned diplomatically, it could be seen as a huge strategic move. America so far has always seen Afghanistan through the eyes of security, counter terrorism, and humanitarian concerns. It will now be an economic consideration perhaps to tap the mineral wealth as well as to challenge China’s increasing presence in Afghanistan and Russian influence in the region. The US opening of a de facto embassy, as and when it happens in the future, may lead a way for Western countries to rethink their opening respective embassies in Kabul.

Despite these speculations, security and logistic concerns will continue to remain as major hurdles as the Taliban is still seen having close ties to militant groups, like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and some other armed militant groups. It will always remain a security and safety concern for American personnel. Moreover, as a precondition, the Taliban will have to allow women who are presently suffering to receive education and greater political inclusivity. Taliban are still seen globally to suppress fundamental and human rights.

However, the United States’ re-engagement with the Taliban is a reminder that realpolitik often outweighs ideological concerns. For decades, U.S. policy in Afghanistan has been shaped by shifting interests rather than a consistent vision. One also does not need to underestimate the Taliban, who were born amid conflict, faced regimes of different countries as friends and foes and continue to dodge intelligently through conflict, gaining their specific objectives silently. Taliban leadership have always been tough and shrewd negotiators, talking less but extracting concessions from multiple global powers without making compromises of their own. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban’s deputy prime minister, played a crucial role in the Doha negotiations and is likely to leverage any American overtures to his government’s advantage. Even though we may speculate or write length analysis, the fact remains that Afghans have learned the hard way not to place their hopes in foreign powers.

The U.S. has come and gone before, each time leaving behind a more complex and fragile situation. If Washington returns to Kabul, it will not be for the sake of Afghans but for its own interests. The politically conscious and self-taught Afghans understand it. The Taliban, too, will welcome engagement on their terms but will resist any attempt at coercion or conditionality. One of the biggest caveats remains education and women’s rights that the Taliban will have to allow. As talks progress behind closed doors, one thing is certain: the winds of Kabul are shifting once again, and the world is watching closely to see which way they will blow.

Author is National Editor,

Greater Kashmir