Future Flood SCENARIOS of Kashmir?

The Kashmir Valley, once known for its serene rivers and sprawling wetlands, now stands on the brink of repeated hydrological disasters. The catastrophic 2014 floods served as a wake-up call for policymakers, scientists, and residents alike. But rather than bolster resilience, post-flood actions have allowed deeper vulnerabilities to take root. Uncontrolled urbanization, alteration of floodplains, degradation of wetlands, infrastructural myopia, and climate intensification have all combined to set up the valley for more devastating flood scenarios in the future.

This op-ed draws from peer-reviewed scientific research, remote sensing analyses, global flood science, and local empirical data to outline the potential future flood scenarios facing Kashmir. Special attention is given to Srinagar city and the adjoining districts of Pulwama and Budgam, areas which are now far more vulnerable than they were in 2014.

Scientific understanding of Kashmir’s hydrology

Kashmir’s main river, the Jhelum, originates from the Verinag spring in Anantnag and meanders through the valley before crossing into Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Its major tributaries—Lidder, Vaishaw, Rambiyara, Romshi, Doodganga, and Sukhnag, etc—are fast-flowing streams descending from mountainous terrain with minimal lag time. According to studies by Romshoo et al. (2015) and Meraj et al. (2018), the confluence of intense precipitation over these catchments with snowmelt can overwhelm the Jhelum basin within 72 to 96 hours.

A study published in the journal Remote Sensing (2022) using HEC-HMS and AHP-WEM modeling confirms that the basin’s hydrological response is extremely rapid. The 2014 floods, driven by three days of intense rainfall and simultaneous tributary overflow, caused the Jhelum to breach its banks in multiple locations. Its discharge exceeded 1.3 lakh cusecs—twice its safe carrying capacity. Historically, Jhelum’s carrying capacity has steadily declined. It has declined more than 30% in last 30 years.

Shrinking safety nets

Historically, Kashmir’s wetlands and paddy lands acted as massive flood absorbers. Hokersar, Narkara, Anchar, and Wular served as retention basins, buffering flood peaks. However, over the past three decades, urban encroachments and agricultural land conversions have led to the degradation of these ecosystems.

Satellite studies show a 25% decline in wetland areas and a staggering 1500% increase in built-up zones between 1990 and 2020 (Springer, 2023). Hokersar alone has lost nearly half of its flood storage capacity. Likewise, Karewas—elevated plateaus considered safe from floods—are being mined for brick kilns and construction materials, compromising their structural integrity.

Paddy lands, which once acted like sponges, are vanishing under concrete. Areas like Lasjan, Nowgam, Pohru, and Kehnahama have transformed into residential colonies, cutting off natural drainage and increasing runoff.

Infrastructure as hazard

The Srinagar Semi Ring Road and the Baramulla-Banihal railway embankments were conceived as symbols of progress. Yet, their flawed design—particularly the lack of sufficient culverts and drainage channels—has created reverse damming. These elevated corridors now trap water in surrounding lowlands during flood events.

Villages that escaped the 2014 floods—such as Khanda, Magraypora, Wathoora, Kralpora, Gowharpora, Bugam, and the outskirts of Chadoora town—now face heightened flood risk. Water that once drained towards the wetlands and Jhelum is now obstructed, pooling dangerously in low-lying settlements.

The Kandizaal conundrum

Kandizaal is a village in Pulwama district on the bank of river Jhelum. A flood breach point (popularly known as Kandizaal) is located near this village and has historically acted as a safety valve to protect Srinagar city. When water levels in the Jhelum become dangerously high, authorities may breach the embankment near Kandizaal to relieve pressure on Srinagar by diverting floodwaters into surrounding lowlands.

In 2014, this mechanism helped protect Srinagar but submerged villages like Kehnahama, Chattergam, Lasjan, and Nowgam. With urban sprawl now occupying much of this buffer zone, the effectiveness of the Kandizaal breach as a safety valve is diminishing. A repeat breach today could lead to flooding in as far as Gowharpora, Bugam, and the outer limits of Chadoora town. If left unbreached, Srinagar itself could be inundated more catastrophically than in 2014.

Future flood scenarios

Scenario 1: continuous rain for 3-4 days

According to a study in Environmental Advances (2024), three days of rainfall exceeding 100 mm/day in the upstream catchments would be sufficient to flood most of Srinagar. Given the present levels of concretization, reduced river depth from siltation, and loss of wetlands, water would back up within 72 hours, flooding localities like Rajbagh, Jawahar Nagar, Bemina, Nowgam, and Hyderpora.

Scenario 2: continuous rain for 4-5 days tributary swelling

Should rainfall persist across South and Central Kashmir for 4-5 days, flooding will extend beyond Srinagar to Budgam and Pulwama districts. Villages in low-lying areas such as Khanda, Wathoora, Kralpora, Daulatpora, and Bugam would be inundated. Only Karewa-based villages may remain dry but cut off.

Scenario 3: continuous rain  for 6-7 days glacial melt

A week-long rainfall event coupled with glacial melt could inundate more than 50% of Kashmir valley, sparing only high-altitude zones and Karewa plateaus. Without deliberate and well-timed breaching at Kandizaal, Jhelum discharge could triple its safe limit, overwhelming all existing embankments. Srinagar may not be visible from sky for some days, except the high altitude parts of Srinagar.

Global scientific perspective

Climate attribution studies by the World Weather Attribution group and IPCC AR6 reports confirm that each 1°C rise in global temperature increases extreme rainfall events by 7%. The likelihood of multi-day rainfall, as seen in the 2014 flood, has nearly doubled.

Copenhagen, Tokyo, and Rotterdam have responded to such risks by implementing sponge-city models, expanding urban wetlands, and redesigning infrastructure to accommodate storm surges. In contrast, Kashmir has moved in the opposite direction—sacrificing natural buffers for short-term gains.

Strategic recommendations

The immediate interventions that may help in flood management includes urgent desiltation and removal of encroachments from Hokersar, Narkara, Bemina, and other wetlands is critical. We should consider creation of more wetlands (artificial) wherever possible in the floodplains of Kashmir. Please spare these wetlands and paddy lands and don’t allow any construction (private or government) in these buffer zones. They are the time tested sponges of the flood spills.

Additionally declare the upper catchment areas no-construction zones. Integrate more floodgates, culverts, and water bypass channels along the railway and ring road lines to relieve reverse damming. One of the intervention that may prove helpful and long lasting is to strengthen the embankments of the river Jhelum—with a 3 meter high, 1 meter wide and 2 meter deep concrete wall (wall of defense) from Sangam Anantnag point up to Sumbal Bandipora. Another intervention includes to perform seasonal dredging of river Jhelum and all of its tributaries to enhance their carrying capacities. Finally, use elevated villages for emergency shelters, stockpiling, and as communication outposts during floods.

Conclusion

Kashmir is heading toward a future where floods will be more frequent, more unpredictable, and more devastating. The 2014 event was not a once-in-a-century anomaly but an early signal of systemic vulnerability. With altered landscapes, weakened ecological buffers, and flawed infrastructure, the next flood may not just paralyze Srinagar but engulf large parts of Pulwama and Budgam as well.

The science is clear, the warnings are documented, and the solutions are known. What remains to be seen is whether we act in time or await another disaster to remind us of nature’s supremacy over neglect.

Author is Assistant Professor Higher Education Department J&K and Editor, American Journal of Water Science & Engineering