From Gaza to Tehran

The long-feared spark turning into an inferno in West Asia is no longer speculative or imaginary. It is a sad reality. What began as a tragic and brutal attack by Hamas on Israel one year ago has full-grown into a wider regional conflict, pulling in multiple actors, from Hamas in Gaza, Hizbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen to Shite militants in Syria, Iraq and, most alarmingly now direct confrontation of Israel with Iran. What is now at stake is not only the survival of nations, and their people but also the geopolitical balance in one of the world’s most volatile regions that shadows over the global oil market and the rising risk of direct involvement by major powers like the United States and the United Kingdom suggests that the conflict in West Asia could echo across the globe.

From Gaza to Tehran

It has been exactly a year since Hamas launched its attack on Israel, killing 1,200 Israelis and taking around 300 local Israelis as hostages. The retaliation was swift and brutal by Israelis, reducing much of Gaza to rubble. In the beginning, the world criticised and condemned Hamas for their brutal action, however, as Israelis continued their attack, displacing millions of civilians including women, children, and disabled from their homes, around 41,000 plus Palestinians were killed in one year of conflict, hundreds of thousands of homes, commercial buildings, hospitals destroyed, the anger against the Israelis continued to grow.

There were series of protests in the best of the universities of the United States and Europe in support of the suffering Palestinian civilians. The voice for the Palestinian State grew louder as the massive displacement created humanitarian crises, not only within Gaza but also spilling over into neighbouring areas like Golan Heights, West Bank and surrounding countries like Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and even Yemen. Yet, Gaza was only the beginning some negotiations and a ceasefire would have ended it. Analysts suggest US President Biden as well as the United Nations failed to bring peace as was expected by the global leaders and the multilateral international organisations.

With Hizbollah and the Houthis striking Israel’s allies across the sea lanes in support of the Palestinians, the situation escalated, culminating in Israel’s recent ground offensive into Lebanon. Aimed at dismantling Hizbollah, Israel’s campaign has begun finishing Lebanese infrastructure, killing over a thousand people and displacing many more. This was followed by a series of airstrikes that executed Hizbollah’s leadership, including the assassination of its chief, Hassan Nasrallah. This act appeared to be the tipping point or turning point drawing Iran, Hizbollah’s primary supporter, directly into the fray.

Iran, for its part, retaliated. Within hours of Nasrallah's death, Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli military targets, marking the largest such strike in its history. Israeli missile defence systems intercepted most of these projectiles, but some did land, damaging homes, airport strips and causing further escalation of conflict. This moment has shifted the dynamics of the war, transitioning from proxy warfare to direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, making many of the regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE to rethink their stand and equally US and UK who have openly come forward in supporting the Israel with military and hardware support.  Russia and China continue to closely monitor the happenings.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has voiced support for Lebanon during this "critical stage," following an extraordinary meeting in Doha, Qatar last week. The council called for the full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which demands an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and allows only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeeping forces to operate south of the Litani River. The GCC also urged all parties to exercise restraint and called on the international community to maintain stability in the region.

With Iran now fully engaged in the conflict, the question on everyone’s mind is whether other powers in the region will be drawn in to attack Iran. The Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, had so far remained on the sidelines, issuing calls for restraint and ceasefires. However, the closer the conflict moves to their borders, particularly with the Houthis in Yemen already actively involved, their neutrality may become untenable because of their country’s population and borders.

The prospect of a wider war also brings into question the position of international powers, more importantly, the United States and the United Kingdom, both of whom have been providing Israel with material support. The Biden administration has thus far avoided direct military involvement but has deployed ships, aircraft, and standby troops to the region as a show of force, support, and deterrence. Whether the US will be dragged into direct military action against Iran remains to be seen, but the rhetoric from Washington has grown increasingly hawkish.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has warned that the recent Iranian missile strikes were ineffective only because of the close coordination between Israeli and American military forces and that any future escalation would come with "severe consequences" for Iran.

Oil and the Global Economy

The impact on global energy markets. The price of oil went up by 5 to 7% after US President Joe Biden said the US and Israel were talking about possibly striking Iran's oil industry. Iran is the world's seventh-largest oil producer, sending about half of its oil to other countries, mostly to China.

Since Iran launched a missile attack on Israel last week, the price of Brent crude oil, a key type of oil, has increased by 10%, reaching $78 per barrel. The energy markets and it transport is directly affected as the graph of the conflict ascends.

West Asia is the epicentre of the global oil industry, and any smallest disruption in the region sends oil prices skyrocketing. Iranian oil as well as other West Asian countries production and export routes are particularly vulnerable. One will not be surprised if in the coming days, see oil production facilities, pipelines, or shipping lanes targeted, either directly or through proxy attacks. The last major disruption to oil markets took place during the Gulf War of the early 1990s that sent prices rocketing up and destabilised global economies. A similar scenario could play out again, with much of the world still recovering from the economic aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising inflationary pressures.

The big question now is how Israel will proceed. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed that Iran will “pay dearly” for its missile attack, and there are growing indications that Israel may be eyeing direct strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israeli intelligence has long suspected that Iran is enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels, and any strike on those facilities would likely provoke a broader conflict that could engulf the region into a long-drawn war.

Military analysts according to media reports are divided on how far Israel is willing to go. Netanyahu’s government has consistently warned that it would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, and some within the Israeli security establishment believe this is the moment to act. Others, however, caution that such an attack could be the final push that leads Iran to accelerate its nuclear ambitions, turning the current conflict into proliferation of nuclear arms race in West Asia.

The US administration and President Biden while firmly backing Israel’s right to defend itself, has urged Israel to act with restraint, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear facilities.  Direct strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure could tip the conflict into uncontrollable chaos, with consequences that would resonate well beyond West Asia.

European countries, meanwhile, find themselves in a difficult position. While they support Israel’s right to self-defence, but are critical of the scale of destruction in Gaza and have called for humanitarian pauses in the fighting. However, with European economies already under pressure from high energy prices, any disruption to oil supplies from West Asia would be disastrous. For now, they are treading cautiously, aware that the conflict could draw in NATO allies and destabilise the region further.

As Israel and Iran trade blows, and as Hizbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis continue their campaigns, the war in West Asia is inching closer to an all-out regional conflict. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah was a pivotal moment, but it may only be the beginning. The chance of a full-scale war involving Israel, Iran, and their respective allies looms large, and the potential for miscalculation remains high. Nuclear facilities, ballistic missiles, use of technology through pagers, walkie-talkies, and proxy wars are now all in the precipitating mix, a volatile brew that could take years to cool down.

The world watches and waits. Israel, Iran, and the broader region are at a crossroads, with no end in sight, the road ahead looks long and dangerous.