From Confrontation to Cooperation

The last two weeks of positive steps towards peace on the eastern borders, of building trust and confidence between India and China, have caught the international community’s attention.

Indian and Chinese forces after de-escalation and removal of their military logistics followed by patrolling exchanged Diwali sweets along the Line of Actual Control (LoAC) in five key locations, including Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim on the festival of Diwali

This gesture reflects an ease of mood at the frontiers was preceded by the completion of military disengagement from the Depsang Plains and Demchok in Ladakh, where military personnel and infrastructure were returned to their pre-April 2020 positions. As patrolling activities resume, both sides are keen to assess whether these early signals of cooperation can eventually ease further broader tensions.

Disengagement and Resumption of Patrolling

The regeneration of patrolling follows phased disengagement at the remaining flash points on the LoAC. The two concerned armies have also verified both on the ground and through aerial surveillance the completion of the removal of the forward tents and positions. Indian forces are now regaining access to areas that had been restricted for over four years due to Chinese incursions, highlighting the importance of the patrolling agreement.

On the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia at a bilateral meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping, who met after four years, emphasised the need for “mutual trust and respect,” reinforcing assurances of stability ahead. However, the military presence along the Line of Actual Control remains, with over 50,000 troops and heavy artillery forward deployed by each side in eastern Ladakh and a massive troop presence across Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim.

While India and China desire to completely de-escalate, responses from both countries will remain cautious, and slow at least for the next one or two years, before both countries may take some bold decisions. For example, the Chinese state media, such as Global Times, have expressed a tempered optimism mixed with caution. Recognising the significance of the recent agreement, a Global Times editorial pointed out the challenges ahead: “Not easy has become a defining phrase for this bilateral relationship,” acknowledging the effort and mutual scepticism involved in each step toward cooperation.

Equally, this guarded sentiment is echoed by External Affairs Minister, Dr S. Jaishankar, who emphasised last week that disengagement, while a milestone, is just the beginning. “This is an issue of disengagement and patrolling, which meant our armies had come very close to each other and now they have gone back to their bases,” he remarked, stressing that the next steps will involve complex de-escalation and border management. Both countries have deep-seated concerns, historical mistrust, and divergent regional ambitions, all of which pose hurdles to sustained cooperation.

One should also not underestimate that India-China relations are being rebuilt when the US-India relations are under strain, following Washington’s recent support for Canada in its diplomatic row with New Delhi. As one of the political analysts said “The US has long maintained a strategy of divide-and-rule in Asia, seeking to leverage frictions between India and China, the earlier we realise it the better it is.” However, India continues to maintain the balance and continues to have its own path and axis in its diplomacy and foreign policy. India also cannot completely trust Chinese forward-looking moves because of past experience.

The geopolitical balancing act will need an equilibrium, a good SWOT analysis, continuing research with changing global scenarios, and worrisome conflicts, both in Ukraine-Russia as well as West Asia. One also needs to keep consideration of India’s alignment with the US, and Russia, and the presence of China in South Asia and the region for its own stability goals.

The recent recalibration, disengagement and patrolling agreement between India and China for example could be a signal to Washington that it will not be coerced into a purely anti-China stance and India wants to walk on its own axis of foreign policy.

Even though, the renewed India-China dialogue is not new for the United States and the West. It has happened in the past. In addition, the constraints of the US-India partnership other than the India-Canada limited relationship are visible. India has showcased the differences over sanctions on Russia, relations with Iran to US role in Bangladesh and geopolitical pressures in South Asia. India therefore needs to be committed to asserting its own diplomatic path, opting for a balanced approach in Asia rather than aligning exclusively with Western or Eastern powers.

The de-escalation with China, therefore, should not be only seen as just a tactical success; it should reflect India’s strategic autonomy and should serve as a diplomatic signal to the rest of the world that India needs to maintain its own strategy in foreign policy and not necessary should be grouped with one group or another.

A Way Forward

India also needs to look beyond border issues. If economic cooperation builds upon trust, the resolution of border issues automatically will be seen through a positive lens. Hence the economic dimension of India-China relations remains quite important. Chinese Ambassador to India, Sun Weidong, in an interview as reported by the Mint recently highlighted the potential for renewed commercial cooperation, calling for an “effect of 1+1=11” in areas like electronics manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.

However, India will have to protect domestic industries and guard against over-dependence on Chinese imports. India could benefit from China’s expertise in sectors such as electronics and infrastructure while balancing economic collaboration with cautious regulatory oversight.

The ambassador also noted that China has issued over 240,000 visas to Indian professionals and businesspeople this year alone when the relationship was under strain. This speaks out that now with better relationships, the business visas are going to shoot up. This fact highlights an active commercial relationship despite political tensions. For both countries, sustained economic cooperation will be a cornerstone for future engagement, even as they navigate security concerns along the LoAC.

The India-China relationship is shaped by bilateral interactions, however, multilateral platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) provide additional avenues for cooperation and strength to the Asian countries. These forums allow both countries to address mutual concerns such as regional security, economic growth, and counterterrorism, all while defusing tensions over specific disputes.

For instance, during the recent BRICS summit, Modi and Xi engaged in discussions on economic cooperation, illustrating that shared platforms can complement direct diplomacy in bridging gaps between the two nations. If India can win China and Russia supporting India’s demand for the UNSC high table seat, it will further strengthen the relationship between the two Asian giants and automatically strengthen the joint voice for the global south.

Lessons Learnt from the Disengagement Process

India and China despite moving step forward need to remain cautious and learn from recent progress to avoid misunderstandings and unilateral actions that could derail this delicate positive motion.

We need not forget the previous episodes of ‘salami slicing’ by China, as well as incidents like the “Doklam standoff,” in no case should it be repeated. Clear communication and strict adherence to agreed protocols must be dutifully followed. Recent progress, while encouraging, should not obscure the possibility of future confrontations if either side resorts to provocation or tactical manoeuvring in disputed areas.

Additionally, the Special Representatives mechanism, and continuing dialogue at the military and civil administration level, which has been instrumental in resolving past crises, must be empowered to further facilitate ongoing dialogue on emerging issues along the LoAC. Both sides need to recognise that the disengagement at Depsang and Demchok sets a positive precedent that can serve as a foundation for addressing other sensitive areas, including regions like Yangtse and Asaphila in Arunachal Pradesh.

To sustain the recent gains in India-China will require caution, patience, and diplomatic restraint. Loose political statements need to be curbed. Both countries should be wary of any intervention that could aggravate tensions along the LoAC.

Ensuring a phased and transparent approach after de-escalation, and patrolling will still require regular consultation, consistent verification, and baby steps of the confidence-building measures to address mutual concerns. Both armies need to avoid sudden troop movements or infrastructure developments near the LAC that could lead to misinterpretations and inadvertently heighten tensions.

As both sides have resumed patrolling and working through broader issues in Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, and beyond, India and China must prioritise long-term stability. The path forward lies not in rivalry or competition but in cooperation that respects each nation’s sovereignty, national interests, and strategic autonomy.

While economic interdependence and multilateral engagement offer avenues for collaboration, their success hinges on a commitment to respect established agreements and a shared vision for a peaceful, stable Asia.

For India and China, the recent border thaw represents both an opportunity and a challenge. The coming months will require not only diplomatic finesse but also a clear-eyed recognition of the complexities of their relationship. India and China can redefine their relationship for the benefit of their own citizens and the wider region.

Author is National Editor, Greater Kashmir.