Frequent cloudbursts, flash floods in J&K must set alarm bells ringing

Jammu and Kashmir has been witnessing erratic weather patterns for the last several years. From dry and warm winters to drought and flood-like situations, J&K is facing the brunt of climate change and vandalisation of forests, water bodies and wetlands.

Due to its topography, J&K is a multi-hazard region prone to natural disasters like earthquakes, floods, landslides, avalanches, high velocity winds, and snowstorms. Most parts of J&K fall under the high seismic Zones IV and V making it highly vulnerable to earthquakes.

The recent flash floods in several areas of Kashmir including Kangan, Pulwama and Bandipora triggered by cloudbursts must set alarm bells ringing. After witnessing a prolonged heatwave, there has been a sudden change in weather. Flash floods triggered by cloudbursts can spell doom.

The situation is serious due to increasing frequency of cloudbursts and flash floods. Such climatic situations are sudden and leave less time to react. The horrific memories of devastating floods on September 7, 2014 are still fresh in our memories. We must recount how a series of cloudbursts in south Kashmir triggered massive floods in Kashmir!

However, despite the passing of nearly a decade, we have not learnt lessons. We leave no stone unturned to damage our fragile eco-system by encroaching upon and polluting our water bodies, axing trees in forests and vandalising our mountains and karewas.

We shouldn’t forget how our glaciers are fast retreating mainly to pollution and activities in fragile areas. Melting of glaciers has created glacial lakes in mountain ranges of Kashmir. There is a high risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) due to rising temperatures. The problem will assume horrendous dimensions in case cloudbursts occur near glacial lakes. The Glacial Lake Outburst Floods can be devastating for downstream populations due to sudden outburst of glacial lakes which are dammed by loose moraine material.

The glacial lake outbursts can be catastrophic – destroying downstream infrastructure, resulting in fatalities and affecting livelihoods of mountain communities. Rapidly melting glaciers erode land and fill up space creating glacial lakes. Prevailing warming scenario over the Himalaya especially in Jammu and Kashmir makes communities and infrastructure more vulnerable to cryosphere-related hazards that were previously not experienced in the past.

In Kashmir, below-normal snowfall winters in the last few years accompanied by high winter temperatures and summer heat waves contributed significantly to high glacier melting.

As per studies, there are 180 proglacial lakes in the northwestern Himalayan regions of J&K and Ladakh which are exposed to GLOF risk. Two proglacial lakes upstream of Vishaw in south Kashmir’s Kulgam district are susceptible to GLOFs that are likely to affect Asthal village downstream. Downstream areas in Kashmir are more vulnerable owing to high population and greater area under infrastructure.

Besides glacial lakes, there are thousands of ice-cliffs and permafrost on unstable steep slopes in the Indus Basin of which Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh regions are part of. As per experts, cryosphere-related hazard cascades cannot be ruled out as these regions fall in highest earthquake risk zones.

Besides there is always the risk of cloudbursts which can trigger flash floods in these glacial lakes. Studies indicate that 65% of the ice mass in High Mountain Asia could disappear by the end of the century—increasing the risks associated with GLOFs.

Government must devise a comprehensive mechanism to monitor the glacial lakes by satellite-based studies and assess risk associated with the bursting of these dammed lakes.
Early Warning Systems (EWS) must be installed to warn people in vulnerable areas to move to safer locations. There should be disaster management plans for every vulnerable area. Streams can be diverted away from human habitations or concrete walls can be constructed to prevent overflowing of water in case of flash floods.

There is also a need to protect our hydropower projects downstream by undertaking reinforcements to withstand disastrous surges of water and debris in case of flash floods particularly in the Chenab valley where several hydropower projects are housed.

We must remember that in the Kedarnath area in Uttarakhand, an estimated 5700 people, mostly pilgrims, died on June 16, 2013, due to heavy rains, cloudburst, and outburst from Chorabari Lake. On February 7, 2021, a part of the Nanda Devi Glacier broke off at Joshimath in Uttarakhand’s Chamoli district, killing at least seven people and leaving around 150 missing and feared dead. On July 30, more than 400 people perished in the deadly landslide triggered by cloudburst at Wayanad district in Kerala.

Living in a hazard prone area, we have to be ready for any eventuality arising from natural disasters. There is no need to panic but people in areas vulnerable to flash floods should be educated about mitigation plans. We have to bear in mind that we cannot prevent cloudbursts, flash floods or other natural calamities.

All we can do is just take mitigation measures to minimise damage and prevent loss of lives. Above all, we shouldn’t cause further damage to our fragile environment! This is important for our survival

Author is Executive Editor, Greater Kashmir