Four days that shook the sub continent
The genesis of the present India-Pakistan conflict that threatened to go up on the escalatory ladder mercifully ended on 10th May. But it was the unfortunate day of 22nd April when 26 innocent men, identified by their religion, were killed heartlessly by militants in front of their spouses, in the holiday meadow of Baisaran, 4 kms from Pahalgam. There were no security men from Police or Army in the vicinity, or on the trekking route from Pahalgam up to the meadow. A police post supposed to have been there till last year had also been removed. These two assailants are supposed to have come from Pakistan after being trained and armed, and disappeared from the meadow as quickly as they came in. Intelligence reports around this time had predicted an attack on soft targets like tourists.
Things had been going on so well in Kashmir valley for the last few years with a boom in tourism, and peace prevailing. According to official figures, in the year 2024 a record number of 2.35 crore tourists visited J&K; numbers were likely to increase this year but for this tragedy. The people of the valley in a state of state of shock came out on the roads with candle light marches expressing anguish over this terror attack. Friday prayers were preceded by a two minute mourning for those who lost their precious lives.
Obviously, this meticulously planned killing of tourists could not have been done without the involvement and facilitation of the well-oiled terrorist machinery in our neighboring country. Normalcy in Kashmir, elections in the UT with a large turnout, and open declarations of end of terrorism in the valley would not have been taken kindly by Pakistan. Kashmir being their Jugular vein as narrated by their General Asim Munir a few days before the Baisaran incident was not just a coincidence.
In the aftermath of the Baisaran incident, no serious questions have been asked regarding the total intelligence and security failure and no heads have rolled. Instead, a rhetoric started from our side while the opposite side asked for a proof of their involvement. Like in the past they offered a meaningless joint enquiry, or involvement of a neutral country, categorically refused by India.
In order to satisfy the anger of the country where almost all the states had been affected by these killings, measures like putting the Indus water treaty of 1960 in abeyance and several other diplomatic measures were taken. Knowing that these measures alone won’t be sufficient to satisfy the intense passions of the country, in a well-planned scoop, precise bombing of the 9 sites, reportedly the launching places of the terrorists, were destroyed by our missiles. Some would believe, that these places must be emptied of the masterminds who would have been taken to safer havens. There would always remain a debate whether it was the terrorists hiding in these places or civilians living there. Also about the numbers of those killed, people in either side would keep debating.
Whatever has happened has happened for now. Those who lost lives at Pahalgam will not return, their families will live with the scars. More people lost lives as the military clash ensued. All this is now behind us. Times ahead would tell us how much did the military operation reduce the chances of terror attacks in our part of J&K. But an important task which needs to be accomplished is to neutralize any terrorists, who according to our agencies are still in the UT.
The retaliations from Pakistan was expected. Both sides fought against each other bitterly claiming to have inflicted serious damages till a cease fire was declared on the evening of the 10th May. From the side of Pakistan, these four days witnessed some events which go against all the principles of war. Shelling civilian targets across the LOC, not even sparing religious places; even stooping so low like risking the civilian aircrafts while drones were being used from both sides and not closing their civilian airports. The worst was the violation of the ceasefire within hours by shelling cities near the international border and along the LoC. This resulted in immense scare among the public, as people were once again out on the roads. This happened in Srinagar, Jammu. Ferozepur, Amritsar and bordering cities of Rajasthan like Jaisalmer.
It is reliably learnt that the Trump administration, which earlier had decided not to intervene, had to broker peace when it was revealed to them by the Indian national security advisor and the foreign minister regarding their desperate measure of using the nuclear option.
Hopefully the purported meeting of the DGMO’s on 12th afternoon should result in silencing of the guns and the much-needed normal life gets resumed in all the bordering states of India. Another important agenda point at this meeting from their side, seems to be restoration of the Indus Water Treaty which has been put in abeyance, thus the resumption of water supply. The cessation of Chenab water flow to Pakistan primarily affects the Punjab province. This is because the Chenab River is a vital source of irrigation water for the region’s agricultural sector, particularly for crops like wheat, cotton, and rice.
Wars are never a solution to any issue and we have had a bad experience of this since the inception of Pakistan in 1947. The first one was in 1947-48 with raiders backed by their troops entering Kashmir. This was followed by the war in 1965 starting in Chhamb and Akhnur sectors which spread to the Punjab border. The conflict ended with a ceasefire declared following international intervention and the subsequent signing of the Tashkent Declaration. This was followed by the war of 1971 which resulted in formation of Bangladesh. Finally, the just concluded 4 day war will be remembered for long as a war fought using the missiles and drones. There have been other notable but limited conflicts between the two countries like the one in 1999 in Kargil, and the September 2016 Uri encounter.
It is now hoped that peace prevails between these two neighbouring countries and things normalise, and a much-needed dialogue continues to solve the issues; wars only lead to destruction.
Prof Upendra Kaul, Founder Director Gauri Kaul Foundation
