Fog of political uncertainty continued to envelope J&K in 2023

The dense fog of political uncertainty continued to envelope Jammu and Kashmir in 2023 also. Except for the recent expected Supreme Court verdict  upholding the abrogation of Article 370 after four years, this year was politically same like that of other previous  years.

There was no end to the long wait by political parties for an assembly election. The polls did not happen even as the parties and their leaders kept themselves busy throughout the year holding party and public meetings in length and breadth of Jammu and Kashmir.

The Supreme Court direction to Election Commission of India ( ECI) to hold the assembly elections by September 30, next year has generated some kind of hope  among the parties of the fog of uncertainty getting finally cleared and polls taking place within the fixed timeline.

However, some parties are demanding holding of assembly polls simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls in April - May 2024. But, there is hardly any possibility of such a demand being met.

Amid the political uncertainty the parties intensified their political offensives against rivals in 2023 with an aim to take maximium mileage at the election time. Such activities will get further momentum next year in the parliamentary polls and assembly elections.

The major political parties, who have been in power in the past,  know that next assembly polls are different from the elections contested in past. First- The elections will be held  with Jammu and Kashmir having a status of a union territory and not that of  a state.

This is happening for the first time.  Second- the delimitation exercise has changed the electoral map of a number of constituencies. Several constituencies were kept reserved. Three MLAs with voting rights will be nominated by the Lieutenant Governor.

And then  some more parties surfaced in the political front. Political circles feel that with participation of more parties there will be more division of votes among non- BJP parties in Kashmir and parts of Chenab Valley and Pir Panchal region. Such a scenario can damage the interests of National Conference, PDP and Congress to some extent.

An unsure BJP hopes that its vote bank in its stronghold, Jammu, is very much intact and that it votes same way in next election as it did in 2014 assembly polls. The unprecedented victory in Jammu last time had helped the BJP  to come to power for the first time in J&K, though through a coalition government with the PDP. Some reports indicate that for last couple of years, BJP as a political party is not having that good time in Jammu.

That is because of the increasing day-to-day problems of the people there. Like the common people of Kashmir or elsewhere, a sizeable section among the masses in Jammu too are struggling in their lives amid growing unemployment among educated youth, inflation and private sector not growing  that way or not doing business on expected lines and job opportunities shrinking in private sector.  The effects of Covid time on business is still affecting traders.

While the stopping of 149 year old Darbar Move practice is said to have helped the government to save Rs 200 crore annually,  some political parties allege that people in Jammu are not happy with the step as their business has been affected .The parties are promising to restore the Darbar Move once they are voted to  power.

Congress is trying to take advantage of  whatever people's resentment and unsettle BJP.  Local BJP leaders on their part are trying to bride the gap with the common people through listening to their grievances and getting  those redressed.

The gap had occurred due to the disconnect between the leaders and the people. Reports say while some BJP leaders are having some say in power corridors, some others are not being taken that seriously.

There is a perception in political circles that the vote to BJP in 2014 polls was actually vote to the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and not to the local leaders and same will hold true about the next assembly polls. This kind of scenario is worrying Congress. Otherwise, the party feels it can manage the local BJP leadership in next elections.

Kashmir based political parties believe that despite being engaged in hectic political activities in Kashmir also, BJP cannot create an impact in polls here. On the other hand BJP is optimistic about their hardwork in Kashmir bearing some fruits. Whether BJP creates any problem or not for rival  parties, Kashmir is going to witness tight contests. That is why the political parties kept on doing activities on extensive level throughout 2023.

The parties do not want to leave any space for rival parties.  They do not wish to leave the space even in panchayat , urban local bodies , block development council and district development council polls from now onwards. NC and  PDP admit that not contesting the panchayat and urban local bodies ( ULBs) polls last time was a mistake and the space was "unnecessarily gifted to those  who are politically non- existent."

Both NC and PDP are being criticised by BJP for raising a hue and cry over delay in assembly polls this time when the two parties had  boycotted the panchayat and ULBs polls last time. While PDP, NC and BJP are engaged in war of words,

Congress is trying to create its own roadmap for the elections. The roadmap unveiled recently is based on a narrative that among all the major political parties active in J&K only Congress cannot go with the BJP. So a vote to Congress is a vote against BJP, while a vote to any other party can be an indirect vote to BJP as these parties can be part of the coalition government with central  ruling party. Secondly, the Congress has raised the issue of land and job rights for the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

The local  leadership of Congress is trying to get support from their central leadership on the issue and has begun holding meetings and talks with it. The leadership says that senior leader Rahul Gandhi during his Bharat Jodo Yatra in J&K in January this year had managed to establish a direct contact with the youth here. It was during the yatra that Rahul was told by them for safeguarding their rights on land and jobs, they said. "If Congress comes to power in centre, we will definitely safeguard the rights," said JKPCC Chief Vikar Rasool Wani.

Even the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) led by Ghulam Nabi Azad has started making a similar demand. According to DPAP the present laws are weak and cannot safeguard   the rights of the people on land and jobs and that there is need for stronger laws.

The party says if voted to power, they will get the laws made. Amid these promises, claims and allegations and counter allegations by the political parties against each other, the 2023 is coming to an end with the political uncertainty, which is likely to come to an end next year by holding of assembly polls.

Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir.