Fear of escalating violence in West Asia after assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh

New Delhi, July 31: The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has heightened fears of escalated violence across West Asia or the Middle East. Haniyeh was reportedly killed in an airstrike at around 2:00 local time while staying in Tehran.

The Saudi Arabian news agency reported that a guided missile targeting his private residence in Tehran was used in the attack. Hamas has blamed Israel for the strike, though Israel has yet to respond. However, Israel has previously vowed to eliminate Hamas's leadership.

Haniyeh's death followed shortly after Israel claimed responsibility for the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander, Fouad Shukr, in Beirut.

The rapid succession of these targeted killings has raised concerns about further regional conflict. Both Haniyeh and Shukr were prominent figures in Iran-backed militant groups, and their deaths have escalated tensions significantly.

The killing of two top leaders of Hamas in separate attacks iin two different countries is going to massively affect the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Haniyeh was a key interlocutor in the Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations, which itself will be a significant blow to Hamas,

Haniyeh, originally from Gaza and a long-standing member of Hamas, was in Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran's president. His life was marked by several incarcerations and a brief expulsion by Israel, as well as an assassination attempt in 2003. In 2017, he was elected head of Hamas’s political bureau and played a crucial role in negotiations over ceasefires in Gaza.

Strong Reactions

Haniyeh's death has been met with strong reactions from Iranian officials, with Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanani expressing that Haniyeh's blood "will never be wasted" and will strengthen the bond between Iran and Palestine.

Qatar's foreign ministry condemned the attack as a "heinous crime, a dangerous escalation, and a flagrant violation of international and humanitarian law." The ministry warned that "this assassination and Israel's reckless behaviour in continuously targeting civilians will lead the region into chaos and undermine the chances for peace." Israel has not yet responded to these allegations.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued a statement asserting that Tehran will defend its territorial integrity and dignity. "Today, dear Iran is mourning its sharer of sorrows and joys, the constant and proud companion of the path of resistance, the brave leader of the Palestinian resistance, the martyr of al-Quds, Haj Ismail Haniyeh. Yesterday I raised his victorious hand and today I have to bury him on my shoulders," Pezeshkian said. He emphasized that the bond between Iran and Palestine would be stronger and that the path of resistance would be followed more vigorously.

China Condemns Haniyeh’s Assassination

Lin Jian, the spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, condemned the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, expressing Beijing's deep concern that the incident may lead to further instability in the region. Lin emphasized the need for a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible.

China, historically sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, hosted a meeting between rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah in Beijing earlier this month. At that meeting, the two sides signed an agreement to form a national unity government in post-war Gaza.

Similarly, Malaysia condemned all acts of violence, including targeted assassinations, and urged all peace-loving nations to join in denouncing such actions. The Malaysian Foreign Ministry stated that Haniyeh’s assassination underscores the urgent need for de-escalation and reinforces the necessity for all parties to engage in constructive dialogue and pursue peaceful resolutions.

The recent Israeli strike in Beirut that killed Fouad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, further complicates the situation. The Israeli military described Shukr as a mastermind behind a recent rocket attack on Majdal Shams, which killed 12 children and teenagers. The strike was part of an "intelligence-based elimination" strategy, targeting Shukr due to his involvement in the Golan Heights attack. Hezbollah has not confirmed Shukr's death but has denied any role in the Majdal Shams incident.

The potential for broader conflict looms as Hezbollah, equipped with an estimated 150,000 missiles and rockets, may retaliate. Until now, violence between Israel and Hezbollah has been largely contained to the Lebanon-Israel border, but these recent developments raise the spectre of a wider conflict involving other Iranian-supported groups.

Both Israel and Hezbollah have indicated a reluctance to engage in all-out war, which could have catastrophic consequences for the region. However, the cycle of retaliation could easily spiral out of control.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has expressed a preference for a diplomatic resolution, while Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the strike as a violation of international law.

The White House has echoed calls for restraint, emphasizing the desire to avoid a wider war. The IDF's lack of new shelter instructions for Israelis suggests they do not expect an immediate or significant Hezbollah response. Nonetheless, the potential for a broader conflict involving Iran looms large.

Amid these tensions, countries like India have advised their citizens to avoid travelling to Lebanon, and several airlines have cancelled flights.

Meanwhile, in Gaza, the IDF reported killing over 150 militants last week and destroying significant militant infrastructure. The Gaza Health Ministry reported over 39,400 Palestinian fatalities and nearly 91,000 injuries since the conflict began.

The killings of Haniyeh and Shukr, coupled with the volatile situation in Gaza and along the Lebanon-Israel border, have significantly heightened the risk of an escalated conflict in West Asia or the Middle East, with potential implications for regional and global security.