Explaining Relationships
Vikram Misri is the first person with roots in the Kashmir valley to be Foreign Secretary, the highest professional position in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), after Triloki Nath Kaul who served in this position from November 1968 to December 1972. At the recently held Raisina Dialogue, Misri spoke during a session entitled “The Big Picture: The World in Fifty Minutes”. He was obviously asked a number of questions on the emerging world order and India’s position within it. He tackled these well, as media reports of the event show. One press report mentions “In a thought-provoking moment, Misri was asked to evaluate the most difficult geopolitical relationships among the US-Russia, US-China, and US-EU dynamics.
The foreign secretary, deftly avoiding a multiple-choice-style answer, provided a nuanced perspective. “You’re really naming a lot of countries, aren’t you? You know, I answered multiple-choice questions 37 years ago, but I did that because that was a condition precedent to getting this job. Since then, all the time that I have been in the diplomatic service, I’ve learned not to answer multiple-choice questions,” Misri remarked, drawing laughter from the audience.
While it would not be appropriate for a serving diplomat, especially a secretary —and the Foreign Secretary is first among equals among the secretaries—to evaluate what is the most difficult relationship in contemporary affairs, a retired diplomat, like this writer, has the luxury of going into different relationships and trends in contemporary world order. US President Donald Trump’s seeming approaches to world issues, including his country’s relationships with its traditional allies and adversaries, have thrown global political and economic equations into turmoil. He is exhibiting the instincts and practices of a real-estate magnet in handling his country’s domestic affairs and he is showing scant regard for diplomatic conventions which undergird inter-state relations. This has thrown up enormous dust and confusion on the nature of relations between blocs of states leading to basic questions about the relationships which have existed so far. It is difficult to see and perhaps even imprudent to attempt to discern what is actually taking place leave alone what will come when the dust settles. But let this writer take such a risk.
In addition to the three relationships about which Misri was asked there is a fourth which merits a prognosis too. This is that of EU and China. Hence, the question is which of the four—US-China, US-Russia, US-EU and EU-China is the most consequential for the world and how significant are the others. Naturally, these relationships are not mutually exclusive but are interlocking in many ways. They are also dynamic. And , all of them are taking place amidst the swift fundamental changes in science and technology perhaps ever seen in human history.
There is no doubt that the most important contemporary global relationship is that of US and China. Yes, the Ukraine war has upturned European security and it is important to end the conflict. It now seems that Trump may be able to get a pause in the fighting provided Ukraine and US’s NATO partners are willing to accept de-facto territorial compromises and not augment Ukraine’s fighting ability. That will change Russia’s equations with US giving the latter greater space to engage Moscow in more cooperative terms. That will also impact how EU will perceive how it needs to go forward in a collective manner but that is a process which will be difficult to achieve. However, all these aspects will not erode the importance of the US-China relationship.
The rise of China is doubtless the most significant development of the first quarter of this century. It is ironic that the West led by the US contributed too it. It had not anticipated that its policies would lead to China mounting such a swift and comprehensive challenge to the West’s, especially US pre-eminence. But that has happened and under President Xi Jinping China is no longer willing to hide its power and wealth but is flaunting it impress the world that its time has come and the future belongs to it. What has stunned the US most is not the manufacturing ability that China has acquired but its progress in cutting edge science and technology. Till almost the end of first decade of this century China was nowhere on the scene in these areas but now its prowess in digital science and technology is recognised in many crucial areas. These naturally impact economic areas but are also leading to China acquiring power projection capabilities. Trump seems determined to make it very difficult for China to move forward in S&T areas as it has been doing hitherto. The question however remains to what extent will he be able to do so. This because China has acquired indigenous capabilities in S&T and in tooling too.
In geo-political terms the main arena for China-US contestation will be the Indo-Pacific. The region is watching the situation between the two states closely. While China is conducting itself in predictable ways, Indo-Pacific states cannot be certain if Trump will fall into the temptation of doing a deal with China. After all he advertises himself as the master of the deal and hence doubts about US staying power in the US-China contestation is only natural.
A few words about the other relationships. EU will have to learn to make adjustments to Trump and he will have to climb down from his rigid positions because eventually the Transatlantic relationship is of great consequence to both. The US-Russia will do more with each other in economy and also make adjustments in defence but there will be limits to this as also in the development of China-EU ties.
