Escalation in Ukraine-Russia fuels nuclear tensions as Putin updates Russia’s Doctrine

New Delhi, Nov 19: As Ukraine has started using U.S.-supplied long range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets inside Russian territory, a new flashpoint has reached in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. BBC reported that five missiles were shot down and one damaged, with its fragments causing a fire at a military facility in the region, the ministry said.

Washington’s green light for such operations has marked an escalation and tensions, drawing sharp condemnation from Moscow.

In reaction, Russian President Vladimir Putin has apzroved sweeping changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine, expanding the scenarios under which Moscow could deploy its arsenal.

The missile strikes targeted Russia’s Bryansk region, close to the Ukrainian border, early Tuesday morning. According to Russia’s defence ministry, five missiles were intercepted, while one caused a fire at a military facility after fragments hit the ground as reported by BBC.

Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, accused the U.S. of directly fuelling the conflict. “That ATACMS was used repeatedly overnight against Bryansk Region is, of course, a signal that they [the U.S.] want escalation,” Lavrov said during a press conference at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro as quoted by BBC. He claimed that the missiles were operated by American military experts, framing the attacks as evidence of “Western war against Russia.”

Nuclear Threshold Redefined

Amid the heightened tensions, Putin signed off on an updated nuclear doctrine that risks a nuclear response. The doctrine now considers an attack by a non-nuclear state, if supported by a nuclear power, as a direct assault on Russia. According to state news agency Tass, this could include conventional missile strikes, drone attacks, or threats to Russian sovereignty, even if executed by a coalition member.

The update also broadens the scope of potential adversaries, categorising aggression from any member of a coalition as an attack by the entire group. This shift, coinciding with the 1,000th day of Russia’s war in Ukraine, signals a more aggressive posture.

“The new doctrine reflects the current geopolitical realities,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, urging foreign governments to “deeply analyse” the implications of the changes as reported by AP news agency.

The move has triggered widespread concern about the growing risk of nuclear conflict. Putin’s threats of nuclear retaliation, described by Kyiv as “nuclear sabre-rattling,” have been frequent throughout the war, aiming to deter Western nations from supporting Ukraine.

However, Lavrov sought to downplay fears of an imminent nuclear war, stating at the G20 summit that Russia remains committed to nuclear disarmament in the long term. “We strongly favour doing everything to not allow nuclear war to happen,” he said.

Yet experts warn that the updated doctrine raises the stakes significantly. The Associated Press reported that the Kremlin’s changes were made “in a timely manner” to align with the escalating conflict, while the BBC highlighted that the developments follow Washington’s controversial decision to permit Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles.

The growing entanglement of the U.S. and NATO allies in Ukraine has fuelled fears of a broader conflict. Analysts have noted that the Bryansk missile strikes, coupled with Moscow’s nuclear brinkmanship, could push the war into a more dangerous phase.

Russia’s warning of “appropriate and tangible” retaliation highlights the peril of miscalculation. The threat of nuclear war looms larger, forcing the world to grapple with the chilling prospect of escalation in one of the most volatile conflicts of the 21st century. It has already affected the stock markets and highlights an increasingly fragile global security environment, where the margin for error grows thinner with each provocation.