Election Year: 2 hits & 2 misses

Jammu, Dec 31: By all standards and means, 2024 in J&K was an election year, interspersed by a slight surge in terror activities; spread to more districts in the Jammu region; electoral suspense; unadulterated politicking and all its ingredients.

Year, that finally recorded “two hits and two misses” on the electoral account, intriguingly, ended actually at the same crossroads where it began.

2024 had made a grand entry amid the buzz of conducting parliamentary polls besides much-awaited elections to J&K Assembly and of course the polls to Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) and Panchayats, whose terms had ended in 2023.

While the year registered two major “hits” in the successful conduct of parliamentary and J&K Assembly elections; two “misses” were on account of ULB and Panchayat elections, which continued to remain elusive in 2024.

Elusive ULB, Panchayat Polls

Elections to ULBs and Panchayats were scheduled to be held in October-November in 2023 yet were delayed as reservation percentage to be granted to Other Backward Classes (OBCs) could not be determined. These elections are directly linked to the submission of a report determining percentage by the OBC Commission, whose term is expiring on December 31, 2024 (unless it gets another extension).

‘We the People’ Prevail

Though the conduct of General Elections-2024 (LS polls) was a certainty, an element of suspense continued to persist on account of their clubbing with assembly elections, which were to be held before the September 30 deadline. The electoral cut-off date (September 30) was fixed by the Supreme Court in its verdict on Article 370 abrogation cases in December 2023.

Air was finally cleared by the Election Commission of India as LS polls were held in April-May and Assembly elections were conducted in three phases from September 18 to October 1.

While overwhelming peaceful public participation remained the brightest spot of both LS and assembly elections; high-octane campaigning and results had all conceivable dramatic elements.

Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikander

Election year saw two major mainstream forces in J&K politics ‘diminishing into the dark’ and they were, undoubtedly, Congress and PDP.

Badly bruised not just by opponents but by allies as well (in Ladakh), Congress emerged as a ‘spent force’ in Parliamentary polls. Assembly elections actually removed even a facade, if there was any, left by parliamentary polls.

The defeat of PDP President and former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti in LS polls was a major setback for the party. PDP’s losing streak continued in assembly polls too when it could win only three seats, all from Kashmir.

BJP and National Conference emerged as “Sikander”, both bagging two seats, each in LS polls in J&K. However, there was an element of shock for NC. Both the party and its Vice President Omar Abdullah had their “moment of awakening” in his (Omar’s) stunning defeat by AIP candidate Engineer Abdul Rashid in Baramulla.

It finally helped NC in the assembly polls as not only Omar won from both Ganderbal and Budgam segments but the party also bagged 42 seats out of 90, on its own.

NC bagged 35 seats from Kashmir and seven from Jammu, thus establishing its presence in both regions. Its seven Jammu seats also included the Nowshera segment where its nominee Surinder Choudhary made J&K BJP President (now former J&K BJP president) Ravinder Raina eat a humble pie.

Out of its total tally of six in assembly polls, Congress bagged five seats from the Kashmir region and only one seat from the Jammu region.

With the help of independents (including NC and Congress rebels) and pre-poll allies, Omar comfortably took over the reins of J&K as the Chief Minister, for the second time (though this time, CM of the Union Territory of J&K). Surinder Choudhary was made Deputy Chief Minister for obvious reasons. Cabinet saw a sagacious and delicate Kashmir-Jammu balance.

Congress, despite being a pre-poll ally, though, did not join the government.

Never twain shall meet...?

Like parliamentary polls, the assembly poll also delivered a fractured mandate and yet again demonstrated – ‘...Never the twain shall meet..’ as both Kashmir and Jammu divisions voted differently.

If NC conquered Kashmir; BJP won Jammu plains establishing its dominance beyond any doubt, bagging 29 seats (out of 43 and all from Jammu region) – its highest-ever tally in J&K’s electoral history. Not only this, the party enviously scored the highest ever voting percentage.

Its ‘Mission 50 plus’ or even securing 35 seats on its own failed yet it procured a vote share of 25.64 percent, well ahead of NC’s vote share of 23.43 percent.

‘Lotus’ did not bloom in Kashmir but the party saw growth sprouts emerging there too.

Congress’ Crisis

By the end of 2024, Congress, trying to reconcile with its defeat, is engaged in an exercise to figure out an 'invisible Hand’, behind its crushing defeat.

Mistakenly everyone declared that Azad and his party faded into oblivion, as results in LS and assembly polls demonstrated.

But did anyone notice that they did not go into oblivion before accomplishing their job, ensuring the drubbing of Congress, at least in Jammu plains- once its (Congress’) stronghold?

Though Congress described “(lack of) statehood” as a hitch to its joining the J&K government, the Chief Minister opened the “lid” in his recent interview with a news agency. “In the present (UT) setup, we could offer only one seat to them,” CM Omar had stated.

Resolutions & Black Hole

Immediately after the government formation on October 16, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah-led cabinet passed a unanimous resolution urging the Centre to “restore J&K statehood in its original form.”

The Cabinet also authorised the CM to take up the matter with the Prime Minister and the Government of India. Following this resolution, CM visited the union capital twice, first in October and then again in December. Both times he exuded optimism, post-meetings.

2024 saw passage of another resolution in the J&K Legislative Assembly, in its maiden session in Srinagar in November, on “special status and constitutional guarantees.”

Hopes in political corridors persist that they (resolutions) will not be consumed by ‘Black Hole.’

Developments Post Govt Formation

Maiden 5-day J&K assembly session in November in Srinagar had all elements of drama, politicking and action – all over resolution on “Special status.”

Controversies lingered over issues related to five nominated members (now sub-judice issue); dual power structure, statehood and ‘missing holidays’ in the 2025 J&K calendar.

Political opponents discovered traces of dramatic elements in NC MP’s protest outside the Chief Minister’s residence in Srinagar recently, along with ‘Open Merit’ candidates seeking rationalisation of reservation policy.

A cabinet sub-committee is already in place to address the concerns of aggrieved candidates on this issue.

Among the few firsts witnessed this year, West Pakistani refugees, Valmikis and Gorkhas voted for the first time in J&K assembly elections during the last seven decades or so. Paharis got 10 percent reservation while the OBC list was expanded with the addition of 15 more castes.

Terrorism Persisting Challenge

Terrorism continued to be a challenge during the year as J&K witnessed killings of migrant workers in the Kashmir region and Village Defence Guards (VDGs) in the Jammu region.

As a most disturbing aspect, 2024 saw terrorism spreading its tentacles to new districts of Kathua, Udhampur and Reasi besides Doda, Kishtwar, Ramban, Rajouri and Poonch in the Jammu region. Terror incidents devoured 58 lives in 2024, including 28 security personnel. Over 70 terrorists were also killed.