El Nino vs Chillai Kalan: Is little Spanish boy taking down Kashmir’s old man

Srinagar, Jan 11: El Nino, a climate pattern causing unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean may be responsible for the unusual dry weather during the Chillai Kalan, the ongoing 40-day winter spell in Kashmir.

According to weather experts here, El Nino is having a major impact on weather patterns in Kashmir and cold desert Ladakh.

Director Meteorological Department (MeT), Kashmir, Mukhtar Ahmad said that the El Nino effect always results in deficit snowfall and rainfall in the regions it impacts.

“This year we have one of the strongest El Ninos,” he said.

Ahmad said that due to this year’s El Nino, Western Disturbances leading from the global atmospheric circulation are without moisture, resulting in dry weather.

However, the El Nino effect resulting in an extended period of dry weather in Kashmir during the Chillai Kalan is not something new.

“The weather in Kashmiri was also impacted by the El Nino effect in December 2018, January 2015, December 2014, January 1998, December 1992, January 1993, December 1986, and January 1987,” Ahmad said.

El Nino was first noticed by fishermen along the Peruvian coast when they observed an unusual increase in water temperature.

Although there are no documented records of what they called this phenomenon, it was Spanish immigrants who referred to it as El Nino, which translates to “the little boy” in Spanish.

When written with capital letters, El Nino means the “Christ Child” and the word was chosen because the phenomenon frequently occurred around Christmas time.

Normally, El Nino lasts nine to 12 months, but sometimes can even last for years.

On average, El Nino events occur every two to seven years but do not occur regularly.

The impact of El Nino on Kashmir is such that people visiting Gulmarg, the famed ski resort of Kashmir, are getting the shock of their lives at witnessing the entire Gulmarg bowl without snow.

Former chief minister and National Conference Vice President Omar Abdullah was one such Kashmiri.

“I’ve never seen Gulmarg so dry in the winter. To put this into perspective here are a couple of photographs from previous years, both taken on the 6th of Jan. If we don’t get snow soon the summer is going to be miserable. Not to mention skiers like me who can’t wait to get on the slopes but there’s nothing to ski on,” he posted on the microblogging website X.

The pictures of green Gulmarg that used to be draped in white during December and January are also getting viral on social media platforms and led to a debate about the impact of climate change on the region.

Sonam Lotus, who heads the Meteorological Center in Leh, said, “This is one of the strongest El Ninos.”

He said whenever El Ninos happen, these impact the weather activity of such places.

“There is a strong relation between El Ninos and Monsoons in India and whenever there is an El Nino effect, India receives less rainfall even during Monsoons,” Lotus said.

Concerned over the protracted dry spell in Kashmir, Anjuman Auqaf Jamia Masjid termed the drought-like situation as “extremely alarming” and called for offering the special ‘Salat al-Istisqa’ prayers on Friday, seeking an end to the prolonged dry spell in Kashmir.

A professor of agricultural economics at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences, Kashmir (SKUAST-K), Sajad Hassan Baba said if the dry spell continues, it would not only impact the economy, tourism, power generation, irrigation, and agriculture but be alarming for biodiversity too.

“The absence of moisture can cause bacterial diseases and affect fish breeding season,” he said. “It will similarly affect plants including apples on which Kashmir’s economy is dependent as plants, despite being living beings, cannot anticipate changing weather patterns.”

He warned that agricultural productivity could be hit which would impact the marginal workers including agricultural labourers.

In the silent battle between El Nino and Chillai Kalan, it seems like the little Spanish boy is challenging Kashmir’s old man.

But will it be able to take it down completely or would the Chillai Kalan make a late comeback only time would tell.

For the time being the impact of El Nino is resonating strongly as it is not just a meteorological event in Kashmir.

It is a reminder that nature’s whims can have profound consequences on daily lives, and calls for reflecting on the broader challenges posed by climate change in Kashmir.