Dry spell in J&K, a wake up call!

Prolonged dry spell amid rising temperatures in Jammu and Kashmir is a matter of serious environmental concern. Erratic weather patterns have started to affect ecological balance and hit food, energy, and water security in the eco-fragile Himalayan region.

It is almost a drought-like situation especially in Kashmir which is yet to receive major snowfall or rains amid the 40-day harshest winter period, Chillai Kalan.

Gulmarg, a world class ski resort in north Kashmir’s Baramulla district is bearing the brunt of the ongoing dry spell. The resort, used to bustle with skiing activities and record tourist flow during the period, wears a deserted look these days in the absence of snowfall.

It is surprising that Srinagar is warmer than Delhi, Chandigarh, Amritsar and Ludhiana these days. On January 13, Srinagar recorded a maximum temperature of 15 degrees Celsius. This is the sixth-highest recorded temperature in over a century. The summer capital had recorded 15.1 degrees Celsius on January 23, 2003, 15.5 degrees Celsius on January 9, 1976, 15.7 degrees Celsius on January 31, 2001, 15.8 degrees Celsius on January 25, 2010, and 17.2 degrees Celsius on January 23, 1902 respectively.

Similarly, on January 14, 2024, Jammu city recorded 2.5 degree celsius which was the lowest temperature since 2017. Kashmir’s lifeline, Jhelum river, recorded lowest ever water level. The gauge reading at Sangam was minus 0.75 feet while Asham 0.86 feet.

These are clear indicators of climate change in J&K. There has been a massive shift in weather patterns. Though there is influence of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the climate of J&K, but climate change coupled with rising pollution is one of the

major culprits for low precipitation in winter.

It is after seven years that Kashmir is again experiencing snowless winter. Environmentalists have warned that the snowfall deficit and higher temperatures this winter could increase the incidence of cryosphere-related hazards like permafrost degradation triggered slope failures, early snow melt and glacier degeneration.

Last year in March and April, Kashmir received incessant spells of rain and suddenly in June, there was dry spell amid scorching temperatures. There has been over 80 percent rainfall deficit recorded in Kashmir particularly in Srinagar in August last year with a Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) value of -1.73. Now from last over a month, there has been a 100 percent rainfall deficit.

We have seen how dense fog cover in J&K in the recent past has severely affected normal life. Experts blame rising air pollution levels for the phenomena. Srinagar is the largest contributor of smog, smoke, and other human-caused aerosols in Kashmir. The current PM2.5 concentration in Srinagar is far above the recommended limit given by the WHO 24-hour air quality guidelines value. The Air Quality Index (AQI) has been hovering around the poor category which is considered to be detrimental to health.

J&K and Ladakh house some of the largest glaciers in the Hindu Kush region. Kolahoi, the largest glacier of Kashmir’s Jhelum Basin, is retreating rapidly due to a spurt in temperature triggered by global warming and extreme pollution. Thajiwas, Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, and glaciers around Harmukh are melting fast.

Snowfall in Chillai Kalan between December 21 and January 29, is considered to be of immense importance for regulating glacier health and stream flows and the region's water security.

If the dry spell prolongs, it will be disastrous. Already J&K’s projected future climate change, snowfall depletion and streamflow changes are expected to significantly impact the timely availability of water for various uses including hydropower projects, irrigation, flood vulnerability and sharing of the Indus waters.

Studies have projected that the Kashmir valley will experience more frequent and prolonged droughts in the future. The results show that the region will experience more frequent and prolonged dry spells from the mid to end of the 21st century making it a new norm during 2051-2099 due to the climate change. But we are still in slumber!

Who is responsible for the ongoing environmental catastrophe in J&K? It is we. We have been leaving no stone unturned to damage our fragile environment. Haphazard development by the government in eco-fragile areas is taking a serious toll on our environment. Unscrupulous people are not far behind in vandalising wetlands, karewas, mountains, water bodies and forests.

It is astonishing that we are yet to realise how we are responsible for damaging our natural assets. We take pride in felling trees, encroaching upon water bodies, undertaking constructions in wetlands and setting factories in eco-fragile areas. But we don’t realise that damage done to the environment is irreparable. No amount can compensate for loss to nature. We can set up artificial lakes and not recreate natural ones! Now the tentacles of climate change have started to directly affect our lives.

There is a need to wake up and do introspection. We have to care for our nature as we do for our family, our loved ones. We are dependent on nature for survival. We don’t have time for repentance, but there is a need to do our bit to save our existing water bodies, forests and wetlands. We have to act as custodians of nature. This planet belongs to other species too and we don't have authority to destroy their habitat.

It is now our never situation for us. Otherwise, time is not far away when we will crave for a drop of drinking water and a fresh whiff of air!

Author is Executive Editor, Greater Kashmir