Driest year

Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its lowest precipitation in over five decades in 2024, with rainfall plunging to just 870.9 mm—29% below the annual average of 1232.3 mm. This surpasses the previous 50-year low of 1974, raising serious concerns about water scarcity and its impact on agriculture, hydropower, and daily life in J&K. 2024, according to the independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif, was the fifth consecutive year of below-average rainfall.

This has impacted the water flow in Jhelum, vital for irrigation and drinking water. The river  is flowing at historically low levels, with Sangam point at -0.75 feet and Munshi Bagh in Srinagar at 3.73 feet. As a result,  key crops like rice, saffron, and apples, heavily reliant on rainfall, have witnessed reduced yields.  This threatens the livelihoods of thousands of farmers but also the overall food security. What is more, climate experts have warned that the erratic climatic patterns suggest the trend of declining precipitation and rising temperatures will persist.

Although climate change is a global phenomenon, the growing precipitation deficit in J&K  signals the troubling shift in weather is sneaking ever so closer to the Valley. Data reveals that in the past 28 years alone, nine winters have passed more or less snowless - three of them in the last decade - a frequency that has created a deep sense of alarm. Snow is critical for the Valley as it helps in the glacier formation which in turn charges up its water bodies through summer. So the recurring dry winters signal trouble. More so, at a time when the Valley’s major glaciers have shown marked signs of depletion in recent decades.

Summers, in turn, too have turned out to be drier and hotter than usual. In recent years, heatwaves have become the norm, aggravating the precipitation deficit. Thankfully, the ongoing winter has been good. Snow has not just fallen on higher reaches but has also blessed plains. This is good news for the year ahead. Here’s hoping that the upcoming spring and summer also pass normally with a healthy blend of wet and dry weather. That said, addressing the broader challenges of climate change and water management requires sustained efforts and long-term planning to secure the region's future.