Delhi Assembly polls in the offing

Having managed an “impressive” victory in politically and economically important Maharashtra and having disgraced into silence the outgoing chief minister Mr Eknath Shinde, leader of the breakaway faction of Shiv Sena, resulting in his forfeiting the claim over chief minister’s post again, BJP seems all geared up to capture the territory of Delhi, up till now forbidden .

Yes, ‘Ab Delhi ki Baari’. That seems to be the dictum of BJP’s poll strategists as it is almost quarter of a century that the saffron party has been unable to win assembly elections. The Congress is out of power in the city-state for over a decade now.

Although BJP has made a clean sweep of seven Lok Sabha seats during the last three outings, the assembly seemed far away from the mighty party led by a formidable leader Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and ably assisted by a shrewd Home Minister Mr Amit Shah who is in charge of police, and law and order in the national capital under the constitutional scheme of things. With Congress a divided and decimated house, the only stumbling block is the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supremo Mr Arvind Kejriwal.

After having taken measure of Mr Uddhav Thackeray (Shiv Sena-UBT), and tamed the mighty Maratha strongman Mr Sharad Pawar, by engineering revolt in their backyard, the BJP’s Modi-Shah duo have their task cut out. On how to handle Mr Kejriwal after having unsuccessfully tried their oft-repeated ploy of tarnishing the political rival’s image through levelling corruption charges. Certainly, the alleged excise scam that led to him being jailed and ultimately losing the chief ministership, had grabbed headlines and became a talking point in Delhi’s political circles. It could not have a desired effect as the BJP’s master brains would have liked.

Practically it is going to be a triangular contest for Delhi’s 70-member House. On paper it is BJP vs AAP vs Congress lineup. But logically, as the ground realities point out, it is going to be a direct contest between BJP (read Modi) vs AAP (read Kejriwal). Unless, although it is already too late, Congress strategically makes a dramatic turnaround. The pan-Delhi march taken out by the party surprisingly attracted neither the national leaders, nor the public. The shredded organizational set up proved to be its bane.

Notwithstanding its resourcefulness and morale boosting victory in the last Lok Sabha elections wherein it retained all the seven seats, the BJP on organizational front is certainly not formidably inclined. It is the direct result of the lack of credible leadership with old proven hands such as former Union Minister Dr Harshvardhan having been unceremoniously sidelined and none among the new comers groomed properly to lead the party to an electoral victory. Nevertheless, the Modi factor, religious polarization and awful resource richness, still makes BJP a strong contender.

One thing is crystal clear that the I.N.D.I.A, opposition combine, has already fallen on its face in Delhi. With Congress having declared its intention to go solo, and lately Mr Kejriwal declaring that the AAP will have no truck with the grand old party, it is clear that the BJP is placed against a divided opposition. Still, a worrying factor for them will be as how to corner the Kejriwal effect in Delhi.

Delhi is Mr Kejriwal’s mainstay and his political karmabhoomi. As much he might portray himself as a national leader and an alternative to the BJP and Congress, his electoral forays in many of the states, barring Punjab, have in no way vindicated this claim of his. That makes Delhi his political lifeline. He will be in the reckoning for a role at the national level if AAP wins Delhi assembly elections again. A loss will mean a total loss of face for Mr Kejriwal and putting a question mark on his future.

That is why the significance of Delhi. With AAP having already usurped the entire support-base of the Congress and the party doing practically nothing to put its house in order, it has become imperative for the BJP to dislodge Mr Kejriwal in order to prove its pan-India dominance. Going by the historic perspective winning Delhi is central to affixing a stamp of authority in governing the country.

Will the BJP be able to break the jinx this time around? Will it be able to meet Mr Kejriwal’s challenge? Will Mr Kejriwal be able to hold his sway once again? Or will Congress manage a turnaround?

This is going, as the indicators are, to be a contest between a high-octane machinery of the BJP-RSS combine and a more grounded organizational network of Mr Kejriwal. The only baffling note at this point in time is that how and where will the Congress find itself in this contest.

What irks the most is that the assembly election seems to be heading in a now familiar direction. As is glaringly evident Delhi is facing plethora of issues related to development, environment and day-to-day survival. These should have become the central theme of all the three political parties and offering a more scientific plan to meet these challenges. Unfortunately, nothing of the sort seems to be happening.

The onus lies more on BJP, which not only rules the Centre but partly Delhi also, and AAP. The BJP cannot squarely blame the AAP government for Delhi’s mess. After all, a proactive Lt Governor as the representative of the Union Government has been breathing down the AAP government’s neck. Both the parties are equally responsible, in some measures more BJP than AAP, in bringing an administrative stalemate. The obduracy and tactlessness of Mr Kejriwal is also a big contributor to bring Delhi to a standstill.

Strangely, the two political rivals seemed to be working on the same wavelength. Both have a penchant to blow any and every issue out of proportion and hog the headlines by blaming the other. The last five years in Delhi’s governance have been lost in this fight of one-upmanship partially concluding into Mr Kejriwal finding himself behind the bar only to be bailed out by the court after months of incarceration.

It is expected of all the three contesting parties to come out with a new, modern and workable governance model. This model should not be based on doling out freebies, the governments discharging their social responsibilities as part of the welfare state is a different issue altogether, but giving a vision on how to retrieve Delhi’s glory and truly making a metropolitan city worth living.

Arresting air pollution and protecting Yamuna still seem to be a pipe-dream. Leave aside other serious problems being faced by the Delhiites. It will be the judgement day for the people also without getting entrapped into emotional waves.