Deep Dive into Numbers: PDP wins, NC crumbles, Jibran surprises

Srinagar, Nov 14: Budgam just hit a reset.

The 2025 Budgam bypoll cracked old loyalties, shrank giants, and unleashed unexpected contenders.

The results on Friday delivered more than a changed MLA.

It rewired Kashmir politics, exposing a tectonic shift beneath the region’s political landscape.

The results show that this is the ruling National Conference (NC)’s steepest decline in the assembly constituency it held for decades.

In absolute terms, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah-led NC emerged the biggest vote-loser.

From the 2024 assembly election’s 36,010 votes, the party collapsed to 17,089 votes in the 2025 bye-poll, a loss of 18,912 votes.

This plunge indicates NC’s weakening hold over both the traditional supporters and floating voters, reflecting dissatisfaction or a shift toward emerging political alternatives.

The results also proved that Budgam, traditionally seen as an assembly constituency where Shia voters emerge as game changers, should no longer be stereotyped, as the Sunni segment votes emerged to be the game changers this time.

Of the total 63,099 votes polled, around 26,000 votes were polled from Shia-dominated pockets, while around 37,000 votes were polled from Sunni-dominated pockets.

The most startling trend visible from Sunni-dominated pockets was that the NC secured around 5500 votes from these areas, while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) got around 7000, and others, including the independents, got around 25,000 votes.

This means two-thirds of Sunni votes went to candidates other than NC and PDP, confirming a major realignment of the political mood.

The Shia vote, too, appears less consolidated than expected.

The voting patterns also proved wrong all narratives about the Shia-Sunni divide and alignments peddled by certain political parties, as voters choose beyond labels.

Three independent candidates – Jibran Dar with 7152 votes (11.33 percent of total votes), Nazir Ahmad Khan with 3089 (4.9 percent of total votes), and Muntazir Mohuiddin with 3030 votes (4.8 percent of the total votes) secured more votes than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Aga Syed Mohsin Mosvi, who secured 2619 votes (4.15 percent of the total votes) proving the assertion that “BJP is making inroads in Kashmir” after the abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35-A is far from reality.

The anti-incumbency factor did not completely turn the tide in favour of PDP candidate Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, who secured 21,576 votes, just 4051 more than 2024 assembly elections, when he polled 17,525 votes.

However, Syed Aga Ruhullah seemed to have played a major role in swinging the elections with Chief Minister Omar Abdullah playing “spoilsport” for his party, launching “personal attacks” on Ruhullah, who, on the contrary, displayed grace, challenging the party leadership on issues of political importance, always shying away from indulging in a personal confrontation match with the CM.

Jibran Dar, who finished third, securing 7152 votes, almost three times that of the BJP and more than double the votes of Nazir Ahmad Khan, a veteran from the region, emerged as a surprise package.

This illustrates that the day-to-day issues the new-generation politicians are engaging the voters on can also create an impact among the masses, even in a place like Kashmir, where every voter eats, drinks, and sleeps politics.

Jibran had only secured 598 votes from his home constituency of Chanapora in the 2024 assembly elections, but came up with a 7152-volt shock for the traditional political parties.

Noise on social media, creating an impact on the election results, also turned out to be a misnomer, with Muhammad Shafi Shah, who portrays himself on social media as ‘Babar Sher’, securing just 213 votes, fewer than even 544 NOTA votes.