Decoding Rajya Sabha polls

The Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir held on October 24 and the outcome have left many questions unanswered. Most of political observers are trying to decipher the names of four MLAs who voted for BJP, and why. That is an important question, but more important is what will be the direction that state politics will take in future. The October 24 RS elections have laid a foundation for the shape J&K politics will take in next few months.

Omar Abdullah has emerged a clear winner. He strategized the victory of National Conference candidates on three seats, though he aimed at the fourth one too. The choice of candidates – Choudhary Mohammad Ramzan, a senior and seasoned leader of the party from north Kashmir, Sajjad Kichloo from Chenab Valley and Shammi Oberoi, a loyalist of the party and confidant of Chief Minister representing the Sikh community – made it clear that many permutations and combinations were figured at party level. The fourth candidate, Imran Nabi Dar, was a last minute choice after Congress refused to contest the fourth and unsafe seat. Omar gave a meaning to his words,“so be It”, after Congress distanced itself from the contest.

Congress, however, stood vindicated because that seat indeed proved to be unsafe. Its vote and support to the NC candidates in the RS elections should not be taken as natural and voluntary. There were political compulsions. This support has to be analyzed in view of the coming Bihar Assembly polls, where Congress is in alliance with RJD. The party is locked in a big battle with BJP.

The outcome will determine the future of Congress-NC alliance which already has run into rough weather. Two sides distrust each other, putting it mildly. The support of Congress, at the moment, provides strategic and political stability to the NC government. That is not to the liking of BJP as the saffron party wants Congress to lose everything everywhere. It must have been happy that Congress did not get a chance to enter Rajya Sabha. But Congress, too, should have weighed that how with just six MLAs, it could ask for seat number one and two

Before dwelling on the messaging of the RS polls, something big is amiss. For no other reason but for his experience, articulation and stature, Farooq Abdullah should have been there. He has been in the parliament – Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha several times since 1980. He knows the parliament, its procedures and he is held in high esteem by all political parties. The political observers can easily recall, like it was yesterday, when BJP’s Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee introduced him in an authoritative tone to the US President Bill Clinton as “leader of Kashmir” in 2000.

Farooq’s own version is that, he wants to look after the things back home in J&K. “Let the young men take charge now – it’s his common refrain. His son and chief minister Omar Abdullah, also Vice President of the party , quipped: “Kis ki majaal hai ki Farooq Sahaib election ladna chahte aur koi inkar karta”, and he added with a clear emphasis: “He is the most respected leader in J&K, and one of the most respected at the national level.”

Even if Farooq Abdullah had declined to contest, he should have been persuaded to enter the Parliament yet again. He is the best known face of Kashmir at the national and international level. Farooq is heard as voice of Kashmir, voice of Indian Muslims and as a leader who is direct heir to Sheikh Abdullah’s legacy. Not that the volume and effectiveness of his voice would diminish, but making a point in the Parliament of the largest democracy in the world is something different and profound.

Well, at the end of the day it is his and party’s decision.

For Omar Abdullah, in particular, these elections have delivered some of the positive messages - amidst all the windmills of rumours that the NC MLAs were unhappy and looking at the prospects of shifting loyalties. Those rumours stand quelled. That is number one. Number two, he has demonstrated his leadership within the party where he can guide the political course of the state of affairs. Third, he has sent a message that not only NC flock is together but they are determined to face the challenges ahead.

Here, however, is a note of caution. The way four MLAs voted for BJP should be a matter of concern for him. Omar has called their voting for BJP as “betrayal”. This, in itself is acknowledgement that the MLAs had other intentions, while they might have voted for the NC candidates in first three seats. Why did they change their mind for the fourth seat. A point that Omar Abdullah needs to acknowledge is that given the arithmetic NC could have won three seats very easily. The three seats commensurate with the number of NC MLAs that was a given.

Naming and shaming those who cross-voted or invalidated their votes is not bad politics, it is realism. Otherwise, the illusions tend to shatter with bigger realities. That is what politics is.

In the budget session of the Assembly in 1984, Farooq Abdullah moved a resolution seeking confidence vote, and he was granted. Within months the whole game changed. On July 2, 1984, his government was dismissed as 14 MLAs, including two nominated women members, had shifted sides.

The immediate aim of BJP to secure four more votes than its real strength in the House might have been to win fourth seat, but its portents cannot be ignored. BJP, for all practical reasons, is not reconciled to the National Conference ruling Jammu and Kashmir. This brand of BJP is aggressive and assertive.

Sat Sharma who won RS seat first claimed that he had approached all MLAs for their vote and support and it is as a result of that he got “conscience votes” and won.” Today, it is conscience of four, tomorrow it can be of many more, this statement is portentous.

Omar has a task at hand, to assert his assertiveness after the elections and strike a balance between what he stands for as leader of J&K, having its own peculiar demands. He should recall and work on his grandfather Sheikh Abdullah’s relevant mantra: “No matter who rules Delhi, J&K, because of its geography, needs to maintain very cordial relations.” This is the most significant message of the RS elections.