Decks cleared for Shehbaz Sharif

The results of the 2024 general elections in Pakistan is a saga scripted by the super powerful army to ensure the success of Nawaz Sharif’s party PML-N. It is identical to the previous elections held in 2018 to enthrone Imran Khan. Owing to the supremacy of army none will question the “selection” of Shehbaz in this country.

Unexpected drama unfolds: Amidst the volatile and uncertain political scenario, in a surprise move, three-time PM, Nawaz Sharif has nominated his younger brother, Shehbaz Sharif for the post of PM. It will enable him to rule by “proxy” and confirm the post of chief minister of Punjab for his daughter, Maryam Nawaz. Experts say that Nawaz has tried to kill two birds with one stone thereby keeping the scope of Pakistan Peoples Party to join the government’ as Bilawal Bhutto chairman of the party has declared to support the PML-N government from outside. Bilawal may bargain with PML-N to nominate his father, Asif Ali Zardari for the post of president which may lead to change of equations. Two, it will pave the way for rehabilitation of his daughter Maryam and PML-N Information Secretary as CM of the most important province, Punjab.

Optimism about Ex PM: Nawaz will be in the driver’s seat and he may make concerted efforts to improve the relations with neighbours including India which was mentioned by him in victory speech. A cursory look at Indian PM, Narender Modi’s attempts to have cordial relations with Pakistan shows that he had attempted to normalise the relations when he made a sudden trip to Lahore on Dec 25, 2015 and wished happy birthday to Pakistan Ex PM Nawaz who turned 66. Prior to it, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had visited Pakistan in 2004 who will be credited for bringing a thaw in relations with Islamabad. India may resume talks if Pakistan shows sincerity and comes out of Kashmir phobia. Army’s ISI wing will have to shed its policy to support terrorists indulging in violence in Kashmir. Nawaz is expected to come out of Kashmir phobia and focus on economic issues which can act as guiding principles to his brother, Shehbaz.

IMF Preconditions: It will be the most difficult task for the new government to implement the harsh preconditions of the IMF which had released USD 710 million as second tranche of a USD 3 billion loan to the cash-strapped country to stabilise its debt-ridden economy. It was during the previous regime of Shebhaz that IMF had saved Pakistan from economic collapse as Pakistan’s reserves stood at $7.8 billion on Nov. 18, 2023; barely enough to cover imports for a month. The people are reeling under inflation which has touched the level of 30% and prices of essential commodities are beyond the capacity of consumers. The floods had caused losses of billions and thousands of lives were lost hence Shehbaz will have to take care of rehabilitation task which is in disarray. The floods had caused tremendous losses of USD 3.3 trillion in June-October, 2022 besides killing 1839 people which must be uppermost in the priorities of the new government as victims are still craving for relief and rehabilitation task.

China’s debt policy and BRI: China has come to the rescue of Pakistan several times but cost has been beyond the imagination of this poor country. China’s debt policy has entrapped Pakistan which has procured a heavy loan and the Chinese investment has risen $65 billion in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) by 2022. China had already acquired control of Gwadar Port on 16 May 2013 which may be retained in lieu of lease guarantee in future. Originally valued at $46 billion, the value of China Pakistan Economic Corridor had been worth $62 billion as of 2020. India and US are opposed to BRI hence Shehbaz will have to tread cautiously to keep China in check to save his country from debt trap policy.

No level playing field: It is a paradox and none will doubt that present elections in Pakistan were a reflection of unequal playing field especially when Imran Khan, a strong contender and popular leader was eliminated from the electoral process under a well-planned conspiracy. Imran’s loyalists say that the army played predominant role in giving the PM chair to Nawaz Sharif on the plate who has preferred to rule by proxy. Imran was disqualified and convicted in several cases to put him in jail which made his party, PTI, as rudderless. The election commission snatched its symbol of Bat to put it in a disadvantageous position.

Analysts opine that Pakistan is poised for another spell of pain, mess and chaos as Imran’s supporters have won in big numbers who are bound to create problems for Shahbaz government. They may continue their tirade against the army and demand release of their leader from jail. India should not expect some tangible result from such an unstable and fragile government though Ex PM Nawaz and army are on the same page hence there are chances of change in dynamics in diplomacy but let us wait and watch.

(Writer is political analyst and having six-year experience of foreign posting in a neighbouring country)