Deciphering high voter turn out in Kashmir

High voter turn out in the just concluded polling in Kashmir for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has expectedly, not surprised the local observers and residents. The mood among the voters indicated two main reasons for high turn out. One, to show solidarity with those politicians and parties who opposed the 5^th August, 2019 changes; second, to express their desire to have an elected government in the erstwhile state, at the earliest. In fact none of the contesting candidates or parties spoke in favour of 5^th August, 2019 changes, including those who are reportedly favoured by the ruling dispensation at the centre in preference to the older parties who are often referred to as dynastic.

Coming back to voter turn out, it is necessary to point out here to the uninitiated that parliamentary elections in Kashmir, unlike assembly elections, have never generated that much interest and consequently polling percentages have always been generally lower and this was so even before the onset of militancy in 1990. Unprecedented low polling percentages were witnessed in Kashmir valley in the parliamentary elections held during peak militancy years, 1990 to 2000. But, let it not be forgotten that assembly elections in Kashmir held after 1977 have always witnessed high voter turn out and sometimes higher than many other states in the country. So, people of Kashmir have always kept their tryst with democracy at the state level.

It is incorrect to think that high voter turn out in 2024 indicates either endorsement of August 2019 changes or is an outcome of these changes. It is inconceivable that people of any state in the country would want to celebrate demotion from special status and from state to UT with enthusiastic voting and higher poll percentage ?

In a sense the people of Kashmir in general have, through their vote, endorsed the stand of the local political parties and leaders to strive for the restoration of their legitimate constitutional rights including statehood. For this to materialize, these parties need to determine how they can collaborate to achieve these objectives. Because a fragmented vote for parties with similar political  objectives could well lead to a rag tag coalition of political upstarts and defectors which would inflict more damage to the body politic in Jammu and Kashmir. Therefore pre-election collaboration and alliances are necessary to obtain a decisive mandate for full realization of the political aspirations of the people  within the constitutional framework.

The recent assurances given by the PM in his election speeches these last two months regarding  commitment of the central government to restore statehood to Jammu and Kashmir and holding of assembly elections, are welcome and keenly awaited. Holding of elections to the UT assembly without prior restoration of statehood will not only disappoint large sections of population but may also give rise to further doubts about the intentions of the central government and to that extent fuel uncertainty. The elections to the UT assembly without statehood may also not encourage the best of talent and serious minded persons from among locals to come forward and contest. For a large territory and strategically important Jammu and Kashmir, continued uncertainty is clearly a minus in any situation. And then the fact of two power centres in a UT set up, one at Delhi and another at the local level, raises issues of coordination and possible confrontation as has been seen in Delhi where two opposing political parties are governing at the central and UT level. Jammu and Kashmir is too serious a business to be left to tug of war like political and administrative arrangement.

As Deccan Herald’s senior correspondent from Srinagar, Zulfiqar Majid wrote in his column on 26^th   May after the last phase of voting in Jammu and Kashmir that ‘ after the successful culmination of parliament polls, as people yearn for assembly elections, the new slogans have not just changed the course of an election, they have ignited a new hope, a belief that change was possible through peaceful means.’ This observation of a senior journalist who has seen it all through last over two decades shows that the people of Jammu and Kashmir need to be adequately empowered to bring about that change they are yearning for.

June 2024 marks the beginning of seventh year of direct central rule since June 2018, nearly as long as Jammu and Kashmir itself witnessed from January 1990 to October, 1996, if first six months of Governor’s rule under the then J&K Constitution in both spells are also added. The challenges as of now are many, as they were then, and only an empowered state assembly and government will be able to handle and face as were faced then in the post 1996 period. It was the strength and patience shown by the political, administrative and security leadership in the then state that most challenges were faced and handled successfully and armed militancy gradually overcome and reduced to almost present levels by 2018. As Dr Farooq Abdullah who led the first duly elected government in the state after 1996 and led bravely, rightly counter questioned Shekhar Gupta, Editor in chief of the Print magazine, in a very recent interview some days back; ‘they say that after abrogation we Kashmiris have become Indians. Are you telling me that we weren’t before.’

Shekhar Gupta who has covered Jammu and Kashmir extensively during his career as a journalist has talked about 3 de-hyphenations that have happened in Kashmir over the last six years of direct central rule, namely de-hyphenation of youth from radicalism, de-hyphenation with Pakistan and security agencies success in de-hyphenating weapons and people. Everyone may not agree with everything he has written or with his conclusions, but his analysis bears the stamp of a veteran journalist, an old hand on Kashmir. First two de-hyphenations are psychological and depend on how much trust is reposed in the people of Jammu and Kashmir and to what extent they are empowered. It follows that these two de-hyphenations will be best achieved through an adequately empowered elected state government and assembly. The third de-hyphenation is in the realm of security and experience with elected governments post 1996 has shown that these governments have hardly ever interfered with the job of security forces viz  elimination of armed militancy and that is how the situation was got retrieved from the chaos of early nineties to a largely peaceful situation barring the Amarnath land row linked disturbances of 2008 and stone pelting phases in 2009, 2010 and 2016 which in retrospect could have been handled differently, both politically as well as administratively.

In conclusion, it will be best for all stakeholders, the most important being the people of Jammu and Kashmir, if assembly elections are held only after restoration of full statehood. Such a course of action, expectedly, will be welcomed by most people in the erstwhile state.

( Khurshid Ahmed Ganai is a retired IAS officer of the erstwhile J&K cadre and a former Advisor to the Governor )