Decade after Disaster: 11 years on, Kashmir still awaits flood defences promised after 2014 deluge

Srinagar, Sep 5: Eleven years have passed since the devastating floods of 2014 submerged Srinagar and large parts of the Valley, yet Kashmir remains as vulnerable to inundation as it was then.

Despite tall claims and detailed plans, the much-hyped flood mitigation project for the Jhelum and its tributaries has made little progress, with only around Rs 600 crore spent against an estimated requirement of Rs 5800 crore.

The 2014 deluge, one of the worst in the region’s history, forced the government to announce a comprehensive plan aimed at increasing the carrying capacity of the Jhelum and strengthening its flood spill channels.

According to officials, the project was conceived in two phases.

Phase I, worth Rs 399 crore, was approved in 2015-16 under the Prime Minister’s Development Programme.

“It focused on urgent dredging of the Jhelum, clearing bottlenecks and strengthening embankments. Though declared complete, it still awaits third-party evaluation of its effectiveness,” officials said.

The official records show that Phase I works did help raise the safe discharge capacity of the Jhelum, though only modestly.

At Sangam in Anantnag, capacity increased from 43,000 cusecs in 2014 to 52,000 cusecs after the works.

At Padshahi Bagh in Srinagar, it improved from 31,800 to 41,000 cusecs, while at Ram Munshi Bagh (through Srinagar city), the capacity rose from 27,000 to 32,000 cusecs.

The flood spill channel at Padshahi Bagh, which earlier could take only 4000 cusecs, was enhanced to 8700 cusecs, and at its outlet in Ningli (Baramulla), the figure rose from 20,000 to 22,700 cusecs.

At Sopore, the river’s carrying capacity went up from 31,000 to 35,000 cusecs.

These values, based on Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements during flood events of 2022 and 2023, demonstrate some gains but fall short of the requirements needed to avert another disaster.

“Phase I provided some breathing space, but it was never enough to protect Srinagar in the event of another 2014-type flood,” official sources said. “The city continues to remain highly vulnerable, especially as Phase II has barely taken off.”

The real challenge has always been Phase II, prepared at an estimated cost of Rs 5411 crore.

Based on mathematical modelling of the Jhelum carried out by the Central Water and Power Research Station in Pune, the plan was submitted to the Union Ministry of Jal Shakti in 2019.

On the recommendations of the Central Water Commission (CWC), the plan was split into two parts. Part A, costing Rs 1623 crore, was approved in December 2019 and included under the Flood Management Border Area Programme with a 90:10 Centre-UT funding ratio.

The Centre released the first installment of Rs 114 crore in 2022, but so far, expenditure has remained limited to about Rs 159 crore, including Rs 29 crore spent on constructing hydraulic regulators at Hokersar wetland.

Part B of Phase II, the larger component worth Rs 3788 crore, is yet to take off as the funding source has not been identified.

This leaves nearly two-thirds of the overall plan still stuck at the planning stage.

“Unless funding for Part B is tied up soon, the entire purpose of the flood mitigation plan will stand defeated,” a senior engineer of the Jal Shakti Department said. “Every year we push this project further down the line, the risks grow larger.”

Environmentalists warn that rapid urbanisation on floodplains, shrinking wetlands, and silt accumulation in the Jhelum have further reduced Kashmir’s resilience.

They argue that climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme rainfall events, while preparedness remains stuck on paper.

“Eleven years have gone by, and the government has failed to build lasting flood defences. The expenditure of Rs 600 crore against an estimated Rs 5800 crore is too little, too slow. If another deluge strikes, the devastation could be worse than 2014,” officials said.