Daunting task ahead for Kejriwal
Although born out of anti-corruption movement launched by the now defunct India Against Corruption (IAC), the new kid on the block in India politics, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is faced with a serious leadership crisis.
It has happened, though circumstantial, sooner than expected. Surprisingly, the backdrop is based on allegations of corruption.
Like other political parties, barring BJP, the monolithic and a personality-based structure of the party could prove its nemesis.
After feared arrest of its supremo, who?
It is another matter that Mr Arvind Kejriwal has for the time being warded off the Enforcement Directorate’s (ED) summons with counter-questions.
In turn he has tried to set a counter-narrative by rushing to campaign for AAP candidates in Madhya Pradesh rather than the ED headquarters.
The danger of leadership crisis has risen as the ED closes on into AAP supremo and Delhi chief minister Mr Kejriwal.
Summoned in the Delhi Excise policy with charges of corruption and resultant money trail already leading to arrest of its top leaders, the party will be left rudderless in case of his arrest.
Will ED send Mr Kejriwal behind the bars? The AAP, sensing trouble, has already begun efforts to make a hero out of their leader and charged BJP with “plotting” to get their leader arrested as “Prime Minister Mr Naredran Modi is scared of losing the coming state assembly elections”.
This is a weak-kneed attempt by the AAP strategists to create sympathy and portray Mr Kejriwal as a front-ranking challengers to Mr Modi particularly in the elections to Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.
The party is contesting seats here and there in these states where it has practically little or no base. Surely, it might have some strong stray strong pockets.
The question of a “scared” Mr Modi plotting Mr Kejriwal’s arrest sensing defeat is incomprehensible. Fact of the matter is that by raising this bogey the AAP has been preparing for a scenario without Mr Kejriwal.
Nevertheless, Delhi minister Ms Atishi Marlene launched a broadside against Mr Modi. “Modi ji is so scared of Mr Kejriwal that he is conspiring and misusing ED and CBI to get him arrested.
The BJP and Prime Minister want to crush the AAP, that is why all AAP leaders are being arrested and sent to jail one by one in false and fabricated cases,” she alleged.
As a matter of fact, the AAP is in the throes of serious leadership crisis. With Delhi Deputy chief minister Mr Manish Sisodia and health minister Mr Satyendra Jain along with Rajya Sabha MP Mr Sanjay Singh already behind the bars and facing the CBI-ED onslaught, question arises who will be the Delhi chief minister in case of ED arresting him? More importantly whom will Mr Kejriwal trust to be the “care-taker” of the Chief Minister’s chair in his absence.
Or, in case of arrest will he run the show from inside the jail.
The AAP during a decade of its existence had meteoric political rise with fabulous electoral victories in Delhi followed by Punjab, it adapted to the prevailing trend of personality based monolithic structure even more quickly.
On the face of it is Mr Kejriwal and none else as he has not allowed any other leader to grow so as to challenge his leadership. Many of his promising and illustrious colleagues have already been shown the door out of the party.
Will a comparatively lighter-weight leader be able to run affairs of the Delhi government? This question becomes more relevant given Mr Kejriwal’s continuous run-in with Lt Governor and the Centre as Delhi is a state with assembly but with limited powers.
It is also a fact that Mr Kejriwal’s high-handed approach has not endeared him with the opposition combine I.N.D.I.A leaders particularly Congress as the party leaders and rank and file both in Delhi and Punjab are arraigned against AAP and have been vociferous against any electoral understanding with the party in these states.
On top of that Mr Kejriwal has overzealously fielded candidates in the states facing assembly elections posing a direct challenge to the Congress before he unsuccessfully tried to work out a non-Congress opposition front.
Under the circumstances Mr Kejriwal can least expect a formidable backing from the I.N.D.I.A partners though some leaders in their independent capacity might throw their weight behind him. Sensing such a scenario the AAP leaders have adopted a two-pronged strategy- play a victim card portraying Mr Kejriwal as a fall-guy of BJP’s manipulations and thereby generate public sympathy.
Secondly, try and enlist support of the opposition alliance on the same basis.
On the second front effort has already begun to send a message across to the I.N.D.I.A combine leaders and enlist their support.
More so through creating a scare. Or else, how could Mrs Atishi’s another statement be explained. “Every leader in the I.N.D.I.A Alliance will be caught in its (BJP’s) web. After Mr Kejriwal, Jharkhand chief minister Mr Hemant Soren will go to jail because the BJP lost to him in the state bi-election.
Then Bihar deputy chief minister Mr Tejashwi Yadav, Kerajal chief minister Mr Pinarayi Vijayan, and Tamil Nadu chief minister Mr M K Stalin will go to jail,” she averred.
In the absence of Mr Kejriwal it will be a daunting task for his colleagues to sustain AAP as an organization and ensure stability of governments in Punjab and more importantly in Delhi.
Being foundation of the AAP’s politics, Delhi is much more crucial for him and his party. Any instability in Delhi will directly affect Punjab where a novice and inexperienced chief minister Mr Bhagwant Mann is in the saddle.
The only saving grace is the overwhelming majority the party has in the two assemblies but a formidable challenge to ensure unity and cohesiveness.
Trickier for Mr Kejriwal will be to choose his successor in Delhi.
Most of the prospective candidates, with some being his cabinet colleagues, even being bright were forced to bask under his shadow as is the wont in political parties born out of personality cult.
Will it be Ms Atishi, the brightest face of AAP in Delhi with a good track-record as a minister and Mr Kejriwal’s most trusted one, or her cabinet colleague Mr Gopal Rai, with a trade union background and known to be intemperate, or someone from the organisation with a low profile?
Notwithstanding the merit or demerits of the excise policy case as there are charges and counter-charges galore and the matter is not only under investigation but also before the Supreme Court, Mr Kejriwal is faced with the biggest challenge of his short political career.
Coming before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, these developments can incapacitate him in playing a major role either in the elections or play a dominant role in the opposition alliance.
An intelligent politician but overridden with ambitions, he will be facing test of his life. Will he manage to come out unscathed? Will he be able to keep AAP governments in Delhi and Punjab intact? And will he able to keep his high ambitions to play a stellar role in national politics in the backdrop for a while?
