COP 29: A Turning Point for Climate Action?
The 29th UN Climate Conference (COP 29) is scheduled to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024. The convention will gather around 50,000 delegates, including global leaders, scientists, and climate experts, to address the urgent issue of climate change. The COP is a flagship event in global climate dialogue, held under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The UN Climate Conference began in 1995 in Berlin, Germany, with the Kyoto Protocol (1997) paving the way for broader observer engagement of members as Parties. This framework was further solidified by the Paris Agreement (2015), which continues to define COP’s guiding principles. The outcome of the COP is an agreement agreed by consensus of the parties. New policies and developments have reshaped the conference in response to emerging complexities and the necessary commitments to address critical global climate targets like net-zero emissions, biodiversity protection, climate finance, and resilience to climate-related disasters.
COP 29 follows the first Global Stocktake, held last year in UAE at COP 28—a Paris Agreement mandate requiring a five-year assessment of global progress toward the 1.5°C warming threshold. Currently, Earth is projected to warm by 2.6 to 3.1°C by the end of the century, underscoring the urgency outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which calls for a 43% decrease in global GHG emissions to prevent irreversible damage.
Among the major highlights of COP 29 will be the New Collective Quantified Goals (NCQG) framework represents a landmark shift toward standardized, ambitious climate finance objectives. The stakeholders will negotiate to refine these goals with focus on sustainable finance methods and accountability measures within global financial institutions. The NCQG calls for core public grant funding—an estimated $1 trillion annually—to be directed toward developing countries based on evolving needs. This funding must be balanced across mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage to prevent the current disproportionate allocation that favours mitigation.
Additionally, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are expected to play a pivotal role. These country-specific climate action plans—submitted under the Paris Agreement—aim to cap global warming below 2°C, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C.
The NCQGs and NDCs are set to be negotiated in perspective of climate finance, the central goal of COP 29. This year’s edition is also dubbed as the ‘Finance COP’ for the same reason. The transition of low-income nations into carbon-neutral economies requires funding from developed countries. Securing financing for climate action is arguably the final frontier in combating climate change, as substantial progress has already been made in mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage.
In recent years, private funding has largely failed to deliver effective climate action. Similarly, multilateral banks have struggled, as they typically offer loans instead of grants, which poorer, climate-vulnerable nations view as burdensome rather than empowering. Currently, 69% of all climate finance is in the form of loans.
Earlier COPs have introduced innovative strategies for mitigation and global policy advancement. However, critics often cite partial or inadequate implementation of decisions and the lack of commitment from major polluters like the USA, China, India, Russia and Japan which together produce more than 50% of global carbon emissions.
Some nations, like Papua New Guinea, have already boycotted COP 29, calling the ten-day conference a mere “talkfest.” Leaders like Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Emmanuel Macron, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, Olaf Scholz, Lula da Silva have opted not to attend among many others. The absence of leaders in the COP 29 is a matter of significant concern.
Another issue of note is that while the countries and corporations, especially the major polluting ones, prioritize Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which focus on emissions they directly control or that result from purchased energy, Scope 3 emissions are frequently overlooked. Critics argue that efforts to reduce Scope 3 emissions lack transparency, with some companies and countries outsourcing emissions to mask overall impact rather than truly decreasing their carbon footprint.
Azerbaijan, as the host country, has also faced criticism due to its controversial record on human rights, press freedom, and climate action. Several human rights organizations have called for reconsideration of the host country, given Azerbaijan’s reliance on fossil fuels, which account for half of its economy and the bulk of its export revenue. The state-owned SOCAR—Azerbaijan's primary oil and gas company—is a major source of government revenue.
As a matter of fact, Azerbaijan itself faces significant climate challenges like rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall risk intensifying droughts, impacting agriculture and water supplies. Notably, the Caspian Sea levels have been affected significantly and studies estimate that the sea levels could drop by 9 to 18 meters by the end of 21st Century losing an area equivalent to the size of Portugal.
As the Baku convention progresses, the world will be looking for decisive commitments, especially in climate finance, adaptive measures, and emissions transparency. Despite the criticisms, COP remains a vital opportunity for all stakeholders to reach consensus and transform pledges into impactful solutions for a sustainable future.
Sheikh Muzamil Hussain, Urban & Regional Planner and an alumnus of CEPT Ahmedabad.
