COP 28: Facing the greatest challenge to humankind

The Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) generally, but not necessarily, meet annually to take stock of the efficacy of their efforts to counter what is the greatest challenge to humankind: anthropogenic climate change. As I write these lines COP 28 is on in Dubai. It began on November 30 and is set to conclude on December 12. COP 28 is significant because it is the first meeting where a stocktaking exercise being undertaken to assess global progress in keeping to the goals prescribed in the Paris Agreement.

The Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 during COP 21. It was binding on all countries which are part of the UNFCCC. It was of great importance because a decision was taken that all countries would commit themselves to national goals which they would have to fulfil. At the same time, it was decided that in no case should global temperatures go beyond 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and that all efforts should be made to confine them within 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Extreme climate events over the past few years, all over the world, are making it abundantly clear that even a rise of 1.5 C degrees is dangerous for humankind. Indeed, every year is becoming hotter than the previous one and climatologists are warning that this year—2023—witnessed some days when the global temperature had exceeded the 1.5-degree C threshold. All in all, the planet is in climate emergency but the seriousness which should be shown by the world’s leading countries is absent in dealing with the current dangers which will only multiply manifold in the coming years.

The absence of US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping from COP 28 is itself indicative of the lack of real seriousness of these two countries regarding climate change. Why? In an article in July this year the New York Times noted that China produces 12 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide annually while the US carbon dioxide annual emission is 5.9 billion metric tonnes. Thus, while cumulatively China is the largest emitter of green-house gases the US with its lower population emits per capita far more green-house gases then China. Both have to do far more to transform their economies towards sustainable production and cooperate technologically so that humanity’s climate change challenge can be met. This is, however, unlikely because China and the US and its allies are determined to contain the rise of an aggressive China which seems determined to supplant the US as the world’s pre-eminent power. Ironically, China still proclaims that it is a developing country and therefore has the liberty to use more fossil fuels to meet its developmental challenges.

The fact is that global efforts to combat climate change are not an environmental issue alone. They are inextricably linked with global power politics. Indeed, as this writer has pointed out in these columns in the past, the advanced countries have broken all pledges that they made over the past three decades to assume historical responsibility in contributing to climate change. This meant that they had to share green technology with the developing countries to adapt and mitigate the impact of climate change. In addition, they had to transfer financial resources for this purpose. They have done neither. Instead, increasingly they have wanted that their historical responsibility be overlooked and that the burden for combating climate change should be shouldered equally, if not more, by the developing world even if that means that they remained mired in poverty.

The fact also is that even though the digital age shows the promise that non-renewable sources of energy will increasingly be able to lead the world away from fossil fuels—which are mainly responsible for green house gases--- that day will not come anytime soon. This means that the advanced world must show the way of changed life styles but that it is not willing to do. And, its life styles are so glitteringly attractive to the developing world that it unwilling to adhere to its traditions which were based on eschewing unnecessary consumption.

A change in global life styles which are currently based on unabashed consumption is also needed because of the vast increase in global populations over the past seven decades. In 1951 the world population stood at 2.5 billion. Today it has crossed 8 billion. Clearly, the planet at the current stage of technology does not have the resources to sustain the life styles of the advanced countries. Yet, it is difficult to tell the poor countries that they should just watch the abundance of the advanced world but not aspire to these themselves. From time to time the advanced world indicates that it is conscious that it must make changes in its extravagant consumption-based living but there has not been any translation of its words on the ground.

Finally, it is ironical, in a way, that COP 28 is taking place in Dubai. This writer was posted in the Indian Mission to the UAE from 1979 to 1982. By then the Arab Peninsular countries had started to become transformed because of their hydrocarbon reserves. Their exploitation had begun and brought unimagined wealth to these states. More importantly, they permitted the desalination of water which was essential to sustain a growing expatriate population which was essential to making them into modern places. The Gulf countries’ present wealth and prestige is based on the very resource which is mainly responsible for anthropogenic climate change—fossil fuels—but they cannot be blamed for planet’s climate emergency. It is mainly the doing of the advanced world.