Congress reconsidering alliance after NC’s Rajya Sabha seat snub

Srinagar, Oct 18: Congress is considering withdrawing from its alliance with the National Conference (NC) in Jammu and Kashmir, following the NC’s decision not to provide Congress with a “safe” J&K Rajya Sabha seat, for which elections are scheduled for October 24.

Senior Vice President of the Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress Committee (JKPCC), Ghulam Nabi Monga, told Greater Kashmir that everyone from New Delhi to Srinagar was unhappy with the way the NC ignored Congress in Rajya Sabha seat sharing.

“We will have to think over the alliance with NC, and we will have to sit over it,” Monga said.

He said that the JKPCC has sent a letter about this development to the Congress high command in New Delhi.

“It may take a while, but discussions are being held,” the senior Congress leader said.

Monga said that there is resentment among the Congress high command against the NC’s decision of Rajya Sabha “safe seat snub”.

He said that this decision of the NC had not gone well with anyone from All India Congress Committee (AICC) President Mallikarjun Kharge to General Secretaries, from Parliamentary Chair of the Congress Sonia Gandhi to senior Congress leader and Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha (LOP) Rahul Gandhi.

According to Congress insiders, the party’s high command is particularly miffed at NC President and three-time chief minister Farooq Abdullah for reneging on his promise of a “safe seat” to the Congress.

In the final seat-sharing arrangement, the NC kept the three “safest slots” for itself and offered the fourth, ostensibly marginal, seat to Congress, a move Congress leaders now regard as a betrayal of alliance norms.

The Congress insiders said that contesting the fourth seat would have amounted to political suicide, with the math heavily favouring the BJP, and the possibility of cross-voting could further complicate matters.

In response, the JKPCC formally declined to contest that seat, stating unanimously that the fourth slot was “unsafe” and asking the NC to revisit the allocation.

Rather than accommodating Congress, the NC doubled down, announcing it would contest all four Rajya Sabha seats itself.

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah defended the move, saying, “We believed the Congress had a better chance on the fourth seat. They thought otherwise. So be it.”

The fallout has reached the highest echelons of the Congress party.

The party high command, reportedly stung by what they view as a “broken promise”, is aggrieved.

Congress insiders said that Sonia Gandhi, in particular, has taken offence to this.

The Congress insiders said that even veteran leader Jairam Ramesh, who otherwise has very good relations with the Abdullahs, has also expressed his displeasure over the “safe seat snub”.

They said that the Congress was considering pulling out of the alliance with the NC despite Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and Rahul Gandhi being close friends.

The Congress insiders said that while Rahul Gandhi had also expressed his resentment at NC’s snub, he personally might not be in support of the pullout and would want to give a chance to the NC to keep the BJP out.

“However, he would accept the decision of the Congress high command,” they said.

The Congress insiders said that the Congress high command, in general, and Sonia Gandhi in particular, want to pull out of the alliance.

However, a withdrawal from NC does not automatically imply a pivot to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) or other regional players.

“This doesn’t mean that Sonia Gandhi is cosying up to PDP President and former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti,” the Congress insiders said.

The Congress calculus appears less about forging new alliances and more about preserving dignity, leverage, and future electoral prospects.

Meanwhile, according to Congress insiders, at the local level, resentment is also coalescing around Tariq Hameed Karra, the JKPCC President, for his “failure” in handling the alliance with NC.

They said that from top to bottom, everyone in the JKPCC was against the incumbent JKPCC president due to his way of working and “failure to deliver goods”.

“Karra Sahab is stuck in his double-currency and self-rule times while things have changed drastically in the region,” a top JKPCC leader said. “He is not beneficial for the Congress and was the reason that despite Congress being in a good situation in J&K before the 2024 polls due to Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’, fared badly.”

He said that Karra “parachuted” outsiders like Irfan Hafeez Lone and Nizamuddin Bhat on safe seats of Congress and was instrumental in elbowing out winning leaders from Banihal and Sopore like Viqar Rasool and Abdul Rashid without holding consultation with anyone in JKPCC.

Karra was one of the founding members of the PDP along with Mufti Muhammad Sayeed, Mehbooba Mufti, Muzaffar Hussain Baig, and Ghulam Hassan Mir.

He held important portfolios, including finance, during the PDP-Congress alliance government, and in an upset, defeated Farooq Abdullah to be elected as the Member of Parliament in 2014.

The sources said that the Congress is going to hold discussions on the offer of the NC to contest on the Nagrota seat and leave the Budgam seat for them.

“Discussions are being held on whether to go for seat sharing with the NC in the by-elections too,” Monga said.

Meanwhile, sources said that many leaders from smaller parties may also defect to Congress in the ensuing days, as the local political arithmetic evolves.

Currently, the NC has sufficient numbers to last even if Congress withdraws.

It has 41 members in the 88-member assembly (with two vacancies) and relies on allied independents and friendly small parties.

Yet, withdrawal by Congress, even though a small ally with only six members, would be politically costly.

It could embolden the opposition, increase chinks in coalition cohesion, and render governance more precarious.

For the Congress, the risk is greater than one Rajya Sabha seat.

If the party continues to be seen as a junior, spineless ally, particularly in a region as politically delicate as J&K, it risks losing credibility among its core constituency and future coalitions across India.

For NC, withholding a “safe seat”, ostensibly its biggest partner’s sole significant bargaining tool, could diminish its moral standing in coalition politics.

And for the BJP, this spat is a gift.

A divided opposition alliance benefits the party strategically, both in New Delhi and in local politics.

The next moves to watch would be whether Congress formally withdraws support and when that move is communicated.