Congress loses momentum again?

When towards the end of December 2022, Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra trundled into Jammu region, thousands of people rallied around him, as did people in Kashmir Valley when he later reached here. It reinvigorated the party’s rank and file in the union territory boosted further by the return of leaders who earlier had joined the former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad’s newly floated Democratic Azad Party. So, the Congress was expected to pull off a decent performance as and when the elections were held. But it didn’t happen. Congress lost the two of the five parliamentary seats it contested from early this year, and it won just six seats in the just concluded Assembly election - only one of them from Jammu.

What happened? There are no easy answers to this question.  The yatra had certainly generated some goodwill, and things looked potentially good for the party. But nothing worked out as expected, despite the situation being apparently conducive for the party’s good showing in the election. What changed? Some reasons cited for the unexpected turn of events are the bad selection of the candidates and the lackluster campaigning. The latter reason holds more merit. Both Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi didn’t make Jammu a focus of their campaign. This was in stark contrast to what the BJP did. The prime minister Narendra Modi attended a few rallies in Jammu and the one in Kashmir Valley where the BJP least expected to win any seat. Home minister Amit Shah also attended several rallies in Jammu. Leaving no stone unturned, the BJP also brought Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath Yogi to campaign in the region.  This put the BJP back in the driving seat. The turnaround was spectacular considering the BJP had endured an ugly bout of infighting at the start of the campaign.

That said, despite some signs of goodwill for the Congress since Rahul’s yatra, the BJP was very much in the reckoning in Jammu. True, the region has witnessed some degree of anxiety about the post-Article 370 state of affairs and for more or less similar reasons as in Kashmir: loss of jobs, land and identity. But while the BJP may have faltered in terms of providing employment to the youth or safeguarding land and identity, it has ensured Jammu’s political empowerment relative to Kashmir. Fresh delimitation saw Jammu getting six more Assembly seats and Kashmir just one, bringing, more or less, a parity in the electoral weight of the two regions. Jammuites haven’t forgotten this and they repaid the BJP by giving it 29 seats in the elections.

If not for the counter consolidation in favour of the NC that took place in Kashmir, the saffron party was well poised to form the new J&K government in alliance with the smaller parties and independents from Kashmir. NC's terrific performance in the Valley put paid to these hopes. But who knows such a prospect may still turn into a reality down the line. Even without power, the BJP’s role in the new assembly will be influential, more so, as the party rules at the centre and the Lieutenant Governor,  its representative, has the final word on all important aspects of governance.

How does the Congress’ dismal showing in J&K impact it? Although, part of a coalition with the NC, its fewer seats have diminished its importance in the alliance. So much so that the NC can very well do without the Congress. With four independents joining it, the NC has a full majority on its own. Perhaps, in an acknowledgement of its insignificance in the new Assembly, the Congress has for now sat out the Omar Abdullah-led cabinet.

However, the poor performance in J&K isn’t only of Congress’ worries. It also lost in Haryana where all opinion polls and the election analysts expected it to win by a landslide. The post-poll commentary blames the party for not being proactive in its fight against the BJP. This was obvious from its conduct in the two simultaneous exercises. The losses in J&K and Haryana where it appeared poised to do well haven’t helped the image of a party that in the parliamentary polls had come up from behind to restrain the BJP juggernaut, if not stop it. It is now like the Congress has to start again from a scratch. And that too just before the all-important state elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

While Congress’ failure to build on its parliamentary election performance has threatened to reverse its national revival, the BJP has bounced back from its setback. It won Haryana comfortably and came close to forming the government in J&K - that is, if the NC tally had stayed at around 30. One can infer from this that the saffron party’s setback in the general elections was overstated. Upcoming state elections will thus be crucial for both the BJP, and the opposition INDIA bloc led by the Congress. A win for one side will hurl the politics of the country in either direction in this high-stakes see-saw battle.

By: Ahmad Rizwan