Climate Crisis in Srinagar: The Case of Shrinking Canopy

Kashmir Valley is witnessing record breaking extreme temperatures with mercury constantly soaring above 35°C. According to data released by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the average temperature for June 2025 was 4–5°C above the average. Dry spells have elongated, precipitation patters have become conspicuously erratic. These extremes are, however, not isolated events; they reflect the gradual influence of climate change.

According to the World Meteorological Organization’s 2024 State of the Climate report, heat waves have become 2.4 times more frequent since the 1980s. Himalayan regions have been among the worst hit. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its Sixth Assessment Report (2021), identifies the Himalayas as a climate flash point, where warming rates exceed the global average by 0.3–0.7°C, making the region especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Kashmir Valley, with Srinagar at its heart, stands among the most affected areas.

Srinagar’s vulnerability stems from multiple interconnected factors. The city’s valley geography traps heat and pollutants, limiting air circulation and reducing nighttime cooling, as observed in a study published by SKAUST in 2019. Between 2000 and 2020, Srinagar’s population grew by nearly 30% between 2000 and 2020, fuelling rapid construction, extensive road widening, and an accelerated loss of green spaces. These changes have gone unattended by civic authorities, reflecting gross neglect of environmental concerns.

Srinagar lags significantly in terms of urban green cover, with only about 8% of its area under greenery. In contrast, cities such as Gandhinagar, Chandigarh, and Mysore boast green covers ranging from 20% to 50%.

As per the author’s opinion, there are five major key drivers of this effect – (a) Gradual deforestation in and around Srinagar, (b) Lack of mitigation plans, (c) Urban heat island effect, (d) neglect of environmental considerations in urban design, and (e) lack of civic sense.

From the linear vantage point of this aberration, deforestation is indeed the elephant in the room. A study of ‘Spatiotemporal analysis of Urban expansion and vegetation change in Srinagar City’ published in Journal of Environmental Geography (2023) found Srinagar’s vegetation cover shrank from 43.9 km² to 26.2 km² between 2000 and 2020, marking a calamitous 40% loss. At the same time, the dense forests reduced by 62%, from 1.02 km² to 0.38 km². On average, 17 hectares of green cover were lost every month during these two decades.

These losses are going unchecked and are only accelerating year by year. Trees play a vital role in carbon sequestration, which means they absorb and store carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere, helping to slow climate change. Research shows that when tree cover decreases by 10%, deaths from extreme heat can increase by 1.5%.

In the face of these disastrous changes, which should have triggered visionary measures, mitigation efforts have focused more on ceremonial plantation. As per the India State of Forest Report (2025), 34,691 hectares were afforested in J&K in FY 2024–25. Counterintuitively, the loss of mature dwarfs these numbers. A 2022 study named ‘Evaluating Afforestation Outcomes in the Western Himalayas’ published in Indian Forester found only 50% of saplings survive their first year in Himalayan afforestation, with survival dropping below 30% during prolonged dry spells.

From perspective of built environment, Urban heat island is another phenomenon which has further exacerbated Srinagar’s heat. Generally, the cities have around 12-15% of the area covered by roads and hard paved surfaces. It is observed that urban heat island effect can put the temperature of urban areas 3–5 °C more in comparison to sub-urbs. Further temperature recorded under tree canopies can be 8–9°C lower than open area even its just 10-20 m away.

Lack of nature-centric urban design compounds the crisis. For example, the iconic Chinar population has declined sharply. Around 28,500 Chinars were geo-tagged in January 2025, down from estimates of 42,000–50,000 in the 1990s. New infrastructure projects and road expansion projects are done at the cost of green assets, with no effort made to compensate or transplant felled trees. While statutory plans such as the Srinagar Master Plan 2035 articulate a vision and offer recommendations, the mechanisms for their effective enforcement remain unclear.

Last but not least, public awareness of the importance of preserving mature trees remains low. Many residents and local groups do not protest or demand accountability when old trees are cut for road widening or construction. This passive acceptance allows tree loss to continue unchecked, weakening the city’s natural defence against heat.

As an immediate action point, the onus should be on individual action of the people. Relying on government or external agencies is too much of a variable. Instead, to buttress Srinagar’s climate defences, we can start with simple steps - To plant trees in our homes and common areas. We can work on creating green zones in every neighbourhood and setting up community watering teams to help young trees survive their first years.

If the state agencies emerge from their complacency, they can follow the suit and make roads, public spaces green. New infrastructure must follow “design with nature” ideas, making sure existing big trees are protected at all costs. Chopping down should be a last resort. It’s important to remember that just planting new saplings doesn’t make up for mature trees lost, because it takes decades for young trees to function as mature trees.

To conclude, the timeless words of the patron saint of Kashmir, Sheikh Nooruddin Reshi (d. 1438): “Food will last only as long as the forests last.”

Sheikh Muzamil Hussain is an Urban and Regional Planner and alumnus of CEPT Ahmedabad