Changing weather, unchanging politics

Weather conditions in Kashmir are changing again with the change of the season. However, the political scenario continues to remain unchanged. It is same as it was earlier. The political parties continue to try their level best to strengthen themselves by reaching out to more and more people to get their support and votes in elections. But elections are nowhere in sight except for the Lok Sabha polls, which are likely to be held across the country in April- May next year.

It is often being said that weather and politics in Kashmir are unpredictable. This is being said despite the fact that most weather related forecast prove correct now because of the significant progress in the field of science and technology. But, there is no scope for reliable political predictions at present in view of the stalemate at political front and suspense around the timing of holding the elections.
Whether summer, autumn, winter or spring season, the political scene remained the same this year and is likely to remain so for at least half of the next year also. The changing seasons and changing weather conditions are not going to have an impact on the politics in the near future.

Interestingly, the increasing dependence of people on weather predictions had made a non- political figure, Sonam Lotus, a household name in Kashmir. Being head of the local meteorological department for a very long time, Lotus was recently transferred to Ladakh. The people would usually trust his forecast more than the promises made by the politicians. Fully aware about the popularity of Lotus among the masses, the political leaders would not mind this since he was from an entirely different field. However, the most political leaders at this time are minding the stalemate in J&K politics. They do not want to watch the happenings from the sidelines. The leaders wish to act as key players by contesting polls and getting the political power.

That is the reason that despite the stalemate, the leaders, their party workers and supporters are active. They do not want to remain unprepared for polls whenever held. Party meetings and public rallies are being held across J&K. Most parties are extensively reaching out to the people. They remained busy throughout this year and will have to be so even during coming weeks and winter months also. The political parties are presently making preparations particularly for the Lok Sabha polls. The change in weather and the subsequent cold is not affecting their activities. While the weather conditions will change further in coming weeks and months due to winter, the political activities will likely continue. While the snowfall and freezing cold affects the normal life in Kashmir, the political parties will have to go in a de-freezing mode as far as their activities are concerned in view of the Lok Sabha polls. Getting some share among the five parliamentary seats in J&K is the wish of the parties and their leaders. Both- the National Conference (NC) and the BJP would try to repeat their 2019 polls performance.

In 2019, NC had won all the three seats in Kashmir, while BJP the two seats in Jammu. The Ladakh seat, which was part of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir at that time, had gone to BJP. For the two parties, repeating the 2019 performance or improving it further will not be that easy in view of effective presence of other parties and leaders in the fray this time. NC will surely face challenges from rival parties in Kashmir and BJP primarily from Congress in Jammu. It is to be seen whether NC and Congress would go for a seat sharing arrangement or not. If that happens and NC contests from three seats in Kashmir and Congress from two seats in Jammu even then the NC will have to neutralise the growing influence of PDP, Apni Party, People’s Conference and Democratic Progressive Azad Party ( DPAP) in Kashmir during the polls. BJP is not seeming that comfortable right now in Jammu because of some recent developments and emerging local issues. The party may face a challenge from Congress in election time. To avert such a situation, the BJP will have to take some corrective measures and get back to 2019 like position.

So far as the Ladakh seat is concerned, the recent result of Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC)- Kargil polls have given confidence to NC- Congress combine to take BJP head on there. But will the two parties be able to consolidate their votes and prevent division of votes which ultimately helped BJP to win in past?
Throughout this year, the political parties in J&K remained busy consolidating themselves and attracting the attention of the people. Series of party workers’ meetings, public meetings and rallies were held.

After the Lok Sabha results , the parties will accordingly review their strategies and wait and gear up for the future polls like that of panchayat, ULB and assembly whenever held. Much will also depend upon the election results of five Lok Sabha seats in J&K, one in Ladakh and also the the poll verdict at national level. Fully understanding the importance of Lok Sabha polls particularly after J&K was bifurcated into two union territories, the parties would go into the elections more seriously this time. Subsequently, the selection of candidates by the parties will also be of big interest for political circles.

PDP president Mehbooba Mufti and NC vice president Omar Abdullah have been saying that they would not contest assembly polls with J&K as union territory. Will they then contest the Lok Sabha polls? Will NC president Dr Farooq Abdullah contest this time also? Will Apni Party President Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari, DPAP chairman Ghulam Nabi Azad and People’s Conference head Sajad Gani Lone also join the parliament electoral fray? Who among the Congress will contest? Will BJP like to repeat union minister Dr Jitendra Singh and Jugal Kishore this time also? As of now no political leader has openly revealed his or her intentions to contest the parliament polls. If top senior leaders decide to contest, the parliament polls can generate more interest this time.

Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir.