Change in strategy?

Some things have remained unchanged and some have started undergoing slow changes as the Jammu and Kashmir assembly election is completing its second phase on September 25.

What has not changed and will not change in third phase also is the efforts by major political parties in Kashmir to get votes against the Central Government’ decision to abrogate the Article 370 and bifurcate the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories. In Jammu, BJP’s efforts to get votes for abrogation of Article 370 have also remained unchanged.

What has changed during the two phases of assembly elections is the approach of National Conference and PDP to some extent. The two parties have intensified offensive against each other. At the same time they have diluted largely the political attacks against Apni Party, Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and Awami Ittihad Party (AIP) feeling that these new competitors have largely lost their steam and can be utilised if the need arises.

If the reports are to be believed then there are some behind the scene activities going on by some major political parties to woo the smaller parties, which till recently were being described as proxies of BJP, so that there is some kind of understanding during and after election.

Recently the sudden entry of Er Rashid into the poll arena had taken both NC and PDP by surprise and made them nervous. His fiery statements against the leadership of the two parties had made them uncomfortable. But Er Rashid did not campaign much in the central Kashmir constituencies, going to polls in the second phase. Both the NC and PDP feel that the Rashid factor is over at least for now. It may have some impact again in the third phase when north Kashmir assembly constituencies will go to polls on October 1. The AIP Chief had defeated the National Conference (NC) Vice President Omar Abdullah in the parliament polls, held some months back, from Baramulla.

Both the Congress-NC alliance and PDP are making separate claims regarding an edge in the first phase of elections in the south Kashmir constituencies on September 18. As per the indications in political circles no party has been able to completely sweep the polls there. PDP leaders say that the election results will prove that people have not written them off and that their party has been able to recover much of the lost ground and able to pose challenge to NC- Congress alliance.

But can the PDP be able to make some inroads again in the constituencies of central Kashmir during the polling on September 25? Central Kashmir is usually considered as a stronghold of NC . However, PDP in past had won several seats there including in the Srinagar city. Will NC allow the PDP to get some seats in central Kashmir in this election or not will be known on the result day.

NC has high stakes in every phase of the assembly polls but in second phase the stakes are even higher. NC Vice President and former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is contesting from two seats, Ganderbal and Budgam. His victory is very important not only for him but his party also. More so because of his defeat in Baramulla parliamentary constituency. He is the only former Chief Minister of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir who is contesting the 2024 assembly polls.

His father and NC President Dr Farooq Abdullah, PDP President Mehbooba Mufti and Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) Chairman Ghulam Nabi Azad had decided not to fight the polls. Besides Omar, other senior leaders of NC, Abdul Rahim Rather, Ali Mohammed Sagar, and Mubarak Gul are in the fray for second phase. So are J&K BJP’s President Ravinder Raina, PDP’s Ghulam Nabi Lone Hanjoora, Apni Party President Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari and Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress Committee (JKPCC) President Tariq Hamid Karra. NC has left the Central Shalteng seat for Karra but party’s former MLA and senior leader Irfan Shah is also contesting from there as an independent candidate.

Senior Congress leader and leader of opposition (LoP) in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi addressed an election rally at Shalteng on September 23. While Dr Farooq Abdullah was present at Rahul’s rally at Surankot assembly constituency in Jammu on same day but no senior NC leader attended the Shalteng rally with him. Interestingly, Choudhary Mohammad Akram, the son of former JKPCC Chief, Choudhary Mohammad Aslam, is contesting from Kalakot as an independent candidate. Having started his political career with Congress, Akram had joined NC some months back with a hope to get mandate. But during the seat sharing arrangement, NC left the seat for Congress, which fielded Choudhary Shahnawaz from there. Addressing the rally at Kalakot Dr Farooq Abdullah had appealed Akram to withdraw in favour of Choudhary Shahnawaz but he ignored the plea.

So far Rahul has addressed rallies in four constituencies for Congress candidates. In the three constituencies his party candidates are facing serious problems because of the infighting within the alliance on distribution of mandates.

BJP is also facing similar problem in some constituencies in Jammu. The party has fielded its candidates in several constituencies in Valley with a hope to open the account this time. The Kashmir based parties believe that they have no threat from BJP in Kashmir. According to them attempts at various levels to weaken the NC and PDP by providing alternate parties could not succeed and the experiment failed miserably. Some political leaders say that it will be a hung assembly this time as no party will be able to get the absolute majority. That can lead to formation of a coalition government. Recently Omar Abdullah ruled out a hung assembly saying the NC- Congress alliance will get clear majority.” Some BJP leaders are talking about a hung assembly as they want continuation of governor’s rule in Jammu and Kashmir,” he said. 

Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir