Challenges Ahead

The presence of leaders from the neighbourhood and the Indian Ocean region at the inauguration of Narendra Modi's third term as Prime Minister highlights the significance New Delhi accords to these countries. Notable attendees included Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The swearing-in ceremony also witnessed the participation of Bhutan Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay, Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, Seychelles Vice-President Ahmed Afif, and Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu. The inclusion of President Muizzu is being interpreted as a good diplomatic move especially when both nations are currently having strained ties.

It may be recalled that Modi invited leaders from the eight member states of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to his swearing-in ceremony in 2014. For his 2019 inauguration, the guests included leaders from the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), along with Mauritius and Kyrgyzstan.

Modi’s 3^rd term

Late Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru's Indian National Congress achieved a remarkable victory, securing 44.7% of the vote and winning 361 out of 494 seats in 1962. In contrast, the BJP, under Narendra Modi, won 238 seats out of 543, with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) collectively securing 294 seats. Unlike the BJP, which relies on coalition partners like the TDP and others, the Congress under Nehru stood strong on its own without such alliances. This scenario isn't unique to India. In Britain, leaders like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair also managed to secure three terms. However, managing a coalition government with a thin majority presents its own challenges. The reduced strength can increase the bargaining power of smaller coalition partners, complicating governance and policy implementation.

Challenges before new government

Modi will face the biggest challenge of his political career to manage the coalition partners as Telugu Desam Party headed by Chander Babu Naidu and chief minister Nitish Kumar have emerged as 'King Makers' who may extract the chosen pound flesh from centre. BJP with its reduced strength will be on the crutches of TDP and JD (U) hence they will be enhanced bargaining power. Hence Modi will be under obligation to change style of functioning. Experts say that Modi is known for conducting surprises so he may pass this litmus test to ensure survival of a fragile coalition which is not based on ideology. 2nd, BJP never gave weightage to its partners during ten year stint and even election was focussed on the brand Modi guarantees. Now the show in parliament will be different after newly elected MPs take oath as I.N.D.I.A partners will have a strong strength of 234 to counter the shouting brigade of BJP which had their sway during ten years. Ruling party will have to chalk out a strategy to ensure smooth running of Lok Sabha which was not required when BJP and allies ruled the roost. 3rd, Opposition exploited Agniveer Scheme to the hilt which may warrant review especially when several retired generals have experienced their apprehension about their long term utility to army. It is being argued that retired Agniveers may not be technically competent and efficient to handle modern weapons and it would be a huge risk to utilise their services during the eventuality of war. New government must discuss it with opposition and retired army generals to amend its parameters. 4th, in view of big setbacks in these polls, economists say that the Modi government may fall on the idea of considering more freebies which may unsettle the economy, hence there will be a need to desist from such temptation.

Congress party’s ascendence

Congress party’s decision to go alone in Punjab and West Bengal paid rich dividends as Aam Aadmi Party and Trinamool Congress directly affected the performance of saffron party. Congress won six seats in Uttar Pradesh and its revival will rejuvenate the party cadres which have been witnessing continuous slide in the fortunes of the Grand Old Party. Akshilesh Yadav is a ‘Super Hero’ of the entire game plan of alliance in UP as he undertook social engineering by giving preference to Non Yadvav candidates and allotted 17 tickets to Dalits and 5 only to Yadavs. It was a domain of BJP’s Amit Shah which was executed to perfection by Akhilesh, chief of Samajwadi party that helped Congress also.

The duo comprising Akhilesh-Rahul emerged as victorious though BJP had always ridiculed it quoting their earlier failed sojourn during assembly polls in 2018. BJP tried to neutralise the anti-incumbency factor through Ram temple issue but in vain as its two time winner from Faizabad Lallu Singh, a product of communal violence, lost to SP’s Avadhdesh Prasad who polled 48.6%. Ram temple falls in Faizabad district. Yogi’s ‘Bulldozer Raj’ has been responsible for alienating Muslims.

In final assessment, Modi will govern the nation for next five years with a weakened position of his party and leadership but he has shown resolve to carry on economic reforms to make India as a world power. In this backdrop, the opposition is expected to play a constructive role which will be in the interest of people of the country.

(Writer is political analyst having six year experience of foreign posting and senior journalist based in Shimla)