Capricious voters keep BJP on tenterhooks in Jammu

Jammu, Sep 27: Do electoral sound-bites, generally taken as mere rhetoric, carry weight in a political conundrum like J&K? Or do they serve as a real marker to the upcoming developments?

The answer probably lies in a flashback to high-octane campaigning of Lok Sabha polls. Not all sound-bites, but some do have a haunting impact – it has proved.

Taking a cue from it, during the assembly election 2024, everything else is unpredictable but a reiteration that the route to (political) power in J&K will flow through Jammu (division) this time - is predicted to be a real pointer to the post-election scenario.

Inkling is real.

However, it is not because almost all Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders, including the party’s topmost star campaigners Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Union Home Minister Amit Shah, have reiterated it as a “politically correct” sound-bite for the electorate of their stronghold – Jammu.

Reiteration is resonating because of an amalgamation of several factors presently dominating the scenario in J&K.

Witnessing the “more the merrier” (may not be merrier for political key players) spectacle, the Kashmir division is as usual unpredictable. But its unpredictability is on predictable lines.

However intriguingly, this time, it is Jammu, which with its unusual

capriciousness, is creating unease among major political stakeholders.

There is increasing trepidation, among them, more so as they are anticipating a clear mandate from Jammu, unlike the presumably fractured mandate from Kashmir because of “too many cooks there.”

It’s not that the entire Jammu region is not witnessing multi-cornered contests. In some specific constituencies, independents (mostly rebels) or some other political party too may spring a surprise, to the bewilderment of key players - the BJP, Congress and National Conference (NC) or for that matter Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and J&K Apni Party too hold the key to success in a couple of segments.

Yet in the majority of assembly segments, in Rajouri, Poonch and Reasi districts – which went to polls in phase II on September 25 and in Jammu, Samba, Kathua and Udhampur districts, scheduled to go to polls in the third phase on October 1, BJP and Congress are key contenders.

Interestingly even in eight assembly segments of three districts viz., Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban of Chenab valley, which went to polls in the first phase on September 18, it is by and large, Congress-NC combine (friendly-contests including) versus BJP.

However, locked in pitched battles across the Jammu region, the BJP and Congress-NC combine are finding it tricky to gauge the electors’ mood swing.

Even if they are engaged in triangular or multi-cornered contests at some places, stakes are higher for these traditional rivals (BJP and Congress), hence both are leaving nothing to chance in this keenly-fought election.

Borrowing an expression (though a selective portion) of the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister, the “J&K assembly election 2024 is of great significance”, however not just for J&K and the entire country (as they say) but for BJP as well. Stakes are very high for it (BJP) as it claims credit for “Naya Jammu and Kashmir”, post Article 370. Now after ten years, it is time to “face music.”

Will it be soothing or (ear) piercing?

At least the party’s edgy behaviour suggests that even its, presumably, stronghold is not resonating: “All is well.” No wonder, the party is using every trick in its kitty, using all resources at its command to woo the electorate; retain steadfast political constituencies, cajole the disgruntled lot and win over new segments and electors, wherever possible.

It has roped in its entire star (campaigners’) power to bring a blitzkrieg effect to its campaign and achieve its “Mission 50.” The party (BJP) knows well that it will not be a cakewalk. A lot of “ifs” and “buts” are staring at it in contempt.

On the other hand, Congress is presuming rather sniffing an opportunity to gain an edge against its political bete-noire BJP to en-cash upon an “undercurrent on account of anti-incumbency sweeping across Jammu region.”

But is it an easy target to achieve? Certainly, No!

In the last ten years, much water has flown down Tawi (Ravi and Chenab also).

It has not been so simple to defeat the BJP and reclaim “its lost space” at least in the Jammu region in the changed scenario, where it (the BJP) is the main opponent almost everywhere. Both Congress and NC know it pretty well.

Another hard reality, in the changed scenario after delimitation, is - one who manages to procure the lion’s share from Jammu region’s 43 constituencies, will have a smoother run in the corridors of power - post (assembly) election. Comprehending this knotty situation fully well, Congress has entered into an alliance with the National Conference to tilt the scales in its favour. Alliance, on the face of it, is a win-win situation for both.

But will it work for Congress in Jammu?

The question is complicated to answer.

Congress is fighting this election in its resurgent Avtar. But has this resurgence percolated down to the grassroots? Will it (Congress) be able to get NC vote share transferred to its kitty, notwithstanding a display of “perfect sync and camaraderie at the topmost level”?

As the noises over NC’s promises to “restore Article 370 and 35-A, scrapping of Public Safety Act, release of terror accused and stone-pelters and above all, pledge to reconsider reservation” in its manifesto are going shriller and dominating the campaigning of political opponents, Congress’ stratagem of achieving “complete rout of BJP from its bastion” has suffered a kind of setback.

The perception that these (NC) promises will hurt Congress prospects in Hindu-dominated assembly segments of Jammu is gaining currency.

Pakistan Defence Minister’s statement endorsing the “Congress-NC agenda” has come as another development, which is creating suspicion in the minds of the electorate in these assembly segments, which generally see a “polarised voting pattern.”

Yet the party is confident of taking these “minor setbacks” in its stride. “See Congress had a clear edge over BJP in Jammu region, given a strong sentiment of anti-incumbency against it (BJP). The NC manifesto made it a bit uncomfortable. But the party leadership has managed it well, convincing the masses that Congress has its separate agenda and that both the parties will form a Common Minimum Programme (CMP) after coming to power. Our AICC president in his recent presser in Jammu also made it clear that Congress would stand by its agenda,” a senior Congress leader said while dismissing the “perception of alliance with NC hurting party’s (Congress’) prospects.”

BJP, though, is upbeat over these developments yet is finding itself too, on a sticky wicket as at several places it is facing a “BJP versus BJP” scenario.

Political analysts, however, assert that the vocal sentiment of the electorate is in the minority.

“Silent majority is a matter of predicament for both Congress and BJP. Anti-incumbency undercurrent is also very strong. Even if Congress faces some backlash on account of its alliance with NC, it is not going to benefit the BJP much. Because BJP’s major concern revolves around its internal dimensions. Overconfidence in taking voters for granted in the Jammu region will prove damaging for both Congress and BJP. And (silent) voters are not giving a solid cue,” they opine.

In this almost straight BJP-Congress contest in Jammu in phase - III, the latter’s alliance partner (NC) has discovered an area of concern, which demonstrated its “misgivings as well as anxiety.”

Just sample this and nothing else needs to elaborate: Brooding over Congress’ “low-key campaigning” in Jammu, NC Vice President and former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on September 25 had a suggestion for his (alliance) buddy and the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi as he (Omar) said, “I hope after Rahul wraps up his campaigning in one or two seats in Kashmir, he turns his attention to Jammu. The Congress’ actions in Kashmir are not what matters the most. It’s what happens in Jammu that counts. Ultimately, what the Congress does in Kashmir is not that important but what the Congress does in Jammu is important.”

“Unfortunately, the Congress has not done as much in the plains of Jammu as the NC, which is in a pre-poll alliance with it (Congress), expects it to do. The lion’s share of the seats that the alliance gave in Jammu was to the Congress party and yet the Congress’ campaign in Jammu is yet to begin. ....it’s worrying that the Congress has yet to make its presence felt in Jammu,” Omar raised alarm.

And the Gandhis got the message!

A fresh itinerary was issued and Rahul was scheduled to address two rallies on September 27 in Jammu. This, however, could not happen and his visit was to be cancelled due to inclement weather conditions.

As per schedule, Rahul’s visit was to be followed by that of his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Priyanka is also scheduled to address two rallies on September 28. Same day the Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address his mega Jammu rally at M A Stadium.

Now, if weather permits, Congress is busy chalking out another schedule for Rahul and AICC President Mallikarjun Kharge on September 29 to wind up its campaign to match BJP’s electioneering blitzkrieg.

Is it not another marker that Jammu is showing the potential of creating political tremors?

Just wait and watch!