Can Jammu prove decisive?

As a school going boy, visiting to Kashmir in summer vacations during the 1980s was a very important annual event for me. It used to be a journey taking 2 nights with one night in the train and another at Kud or Batote, between the city of Jammu and Srinagar. Jammu city used to be just a transit small city with lot of ancient temples, and the people more like the rest of the North India. The spotlight for me, and many other persons travelling, used to be the valley.

The last 3 decades have seen lot of development in the Jammu area especially in the Jammu district, which has made tremendous progress. In spite of it very few people talk about it and when one talks of Jammu and Kashmir it usually means the Kashmir valley or Mata Vaishnav Devi of the Katra region in Jammu.

Likewise, the political spotlight, despite Jammu region having 43 seats of the 90 seats, is still on Kashmir. This can be observed in TV debates, newspaper articles, and the national media which keeps focussing on the political heavy weights of Kashmir, the abrogation of Article 370, the smart city of Srinagar, boom in the Kashmir bound tourism. The National Conference, PDP, the Engineer Rashid factor and most recently the independents backed by the Jamaat.

Very little is heard about the Jammu political scenario. Even the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) led union government harps on “Naya Kashmir” as their ultimate political slogan, instead of Naya Jammu and Kashmir. What one fails to understand is that the real political battle in the eagerly contested elections of the UT which is not discussed is what also happens in the Jammu region? It has 11 assembly seats in the Jammu district and 43 in the Jammu division. It thus has a very important role to play in making the next Chief Minister of the erstwhile state. Is it that it is widely believed to be a stronghold of the BJP?

The region has quietly endured significant challenges during the last decade and people there are disappointed that hardly anyone talks about them. Even the much-publicised G 20 summit of 2023 totally ignored it, and focussed on Kashmir and also took a delegation to Srinagar. We do not hear much about the public in Jammu area facing several problems and financial losses because of a new set of laws and rules which includes the Toll Plazas, the exorbitant increase in electricity prices with newly installed meters, new excise policies and suspension of an age-old Darbar move.

The Darbar move which was started by the Dogras in the times of Maharaja Ranbir Singh used to be a bi-annual rotation of the capital to Jammu in winter and Srinagar in summer. It used to give the business community of Jammu to sell their products to a Kashmiri population that traditionally have been good shoppers. The Raghunath Bazaar area used to become a business hub which has completely halted now. The new excise policies made the local wine traders suffer losses. No private or govt sector opportunities have been added. Many unemployed youths have crossed their age bar with no employment schemes coming forth. The Dogri speaking people are disillusioned that their rich language is not getting any promotion although it has been made as one of the official languages. There are no Dogri signboards to be found on the streets of Jammu and most Dogri scholars of the recent past are unemployed due to the lack of new positions in the higher education department.

Transport and truck operations has been an important means of earning livelihood and good business. It used to be the back bone of the economy of the erstwhile state. However, these days a large number of truck and commercial vehicle owners are burdened with debts without getting any relief from the administration.  During the periods of lockdown followed by the pandemic their vehicles remained idle but the taxes continued to be imposed and no relief was given for renewing their licences. They are thus very bitter.

Jammu city and its neighbouring Hindu majority areas also include Kashmiri migrants, about 65,000 in number. They have traditionally been BJP voters and used to vote in large numbers. Their votes, however, would go the candidates from their original places in the valley. A common complaint from them is that no steps have been taken to rehabilitate them in the valley after Manmohan Singh’s government brought in schemes for them.

The happenings of the last 10 years and the anti-incumbency could thus change the voting patterns and benefit the Indian National Congress (INC) candidates. Although late in their campaigning Rahul Gandhi, Omar Abdullah their partner and even the President of INC Mr Kharge and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra made last minute efforts. It should be remembered that even at the peak of Modi wave in 2014, Congress had managed to get 12 seats and it could do better.

On the other hand, Mr Narendra Modi and his team is also not leaving anything to chance with numerous rallies in the last 10 days. The party is heavily banking on the newly introduced ST reservation for the Pahari community over the issues of development and has thrown its full weight behind the elections, determined to secure a strong foothold.

The 2 phases of polling are over and as many as 40 constituencies are going to polls in the third phase today. Of the 40 constituencies, 24 coming under the Jammu division are going to be  decisive. The battle will be thus for who wins majority in the Jammu area. “Naya Kashmir” should have an important Jammu component added to it. Let us wait till the 8^th of October and see who forms the Government.

Prof Upendra Kaul, noted Cardiologist, Recipient of Padmashri and Dr B C Roy Award