Can Azad's DPAP create Tulip Garden like impact in J&K politics?

By establishing his “dream project”, the Asia’s largest Tulip Garden in Srinagar 16 years back,  Ghulam Nabi Azad as chief minister gave a new look and boost to tourism sector in Jammu and Kashmir.

Now, after launching his own party,  Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP),  one year back, can he be able to create a Tulip Garden like impact in J&K politics also? An answer to the question at this time can be too early, but he and his party will have to go a long way and do a lot of ground work if they really want  to create the impact.

Judging a party just in a year’s time after its formation can be unfair to the party. Its participation in any election could have provided some kind of idea but DPAP is yet to go through the litmus test of polls. A political party takes years and sometimes decades for  getting built brick by brick by its leaders and supporters.

That way DPAP also needs time to grow and get itself established. But at the same time it is very much obvious that the fear and panic, which had gripped several other parties at the time of the formation of DPAP last year,  is gone and is nowhere in sight.

Given the stature of  Azad due to  his over five decades long political career and services in national  politics and in Jammu and Kashmir also, the panic among other parties was natural. At that time the  parties feared that its leaders and other cadres may leave to join Azad. Infact it did happen to some extent.

Congress was badly hit and some other parties too were affected. The welcome rally in Jammu last year saw a number of  leaders joining Azad and more leaders showing their willingness to join.

This led to reaction in J&K from some parties, who alleged that Azad’s re-entry into J&K politics had the blessing of BJP leadership, which wants division of votes among the non- BJP parties in elections. Azad and his supporters dismissed these allegations.

At that time National Conference president Dr Farooq Abdullah welcomed his re-arrival in J&K politics and PDP President Mehbooba Mufti defended Azad for launching his party saying every leader has a right to form a party.

Amid this debate,  the panic and fear among the political parties started going after some time. Even a number of senior leaders incuding Peerzada Mohammad Sayeed and Tara Chand left Azad to rejoin Congress. This was a kind of setback for Azad and his party. After this development, the process of other senior leaders joining DPAP came almost to a halt.

During the  recent rally in Srinagar on the first anniversary of foundation day of DPAP barring Taj Mohi-u-Din and G M Saroori no other senior leaders were seen. Rest were several young leaders.

It indicates that  Azad and his supporters have to cover lot of ground to make the party as a strong political force. While Azad thanked his supporters for supporting him and standing by him during last one year of formation of DPAP, he also appealed the people to support his party for solving their economic and social issues.

He claimed that he has a roadmap for the solution of the problems and can implement and execute it if his party is voted to power. Azad said serving the people has always been his aim and priority and that the sentiment will continue with him even if his party does not get the required support from the people.  DPAP chairman said that the people are aware about the “unprecedented pace of development” during his two and a half years tenure as chief minister. He said the development work done during the two and a half years was equivalent to the work usually being done in 15 years. Azad promised to redouble the pace of development if DPAP forms the government.

In his speech Azad also expressed concern over the delay in holding the assembly polls. While almost  all parties publicly demand holding of assembly polls, but political analysts view that newly launched parties or the parties, who suffered due to  exit of  its senior leaders, are not fully prepared to join the electoral battle. BJP is being blamed by rival parties for delay in the polls, but some other parties too wish more time to consolidate further their position. However,  they are not publically making such a demand or giving such feelers.

But then all parties know that whenever assembly polls are held there are very bleak chances of a single party getting absolute majority to form the government. The next government like the governments since 2002 can be a coalition government. Two parties , BJP and National Conference have been claiming of getting majority and forming the next government on their own. Even Congress and a few others have started making similar claims now. Every party would try to get maximum number of seats to become relevant in coalition government formation and to have more bargaining power subsequently.

Going by the developments in past, any party can become any other party’s coalition partner without bothering what they used to tell the people against each other before or during elections. Some parties were coalition partners in governments in J&K or at the  centre in the past and they can be so in future as well as per their convenience. But till elections they will continue to act like “sworn political rivals ” to get maximum votes and seats from their respective vote banks. And when the need arises they will forget everything to join hands to form the new government as if they were made for each other. This is politics, where there is said to be no permanent friends or enemies. Political friends and enemies keep on changing as per time and convenience.

Political observers believe that Azad has to devote more time in J&K for DPAP if he has to make his party as a strong force on the electoral map. Lot of ground work and introducing DPAP among the people on large scale and popularising the party is very much needed by him. Like some other parties, there is a shortage in DPAP of the political leaders, who can be fielded as candidates and who can win polls.

The emerging new crop of politicians in every party have their own problems and working style. They are more visible on social media than on the ground, where they can work , get support of people and their votes. Hundreds,  thousands or sometimes lakhs of followers on their social media accounts will prove insufficient for them for winning elections. The poll results in other states are proving it day in and day out that elections are not won through social media.

Social media can be a tool in modern times to get directly connected to a section of people in a bid to influence  them , but,  ultimately it is the common voters on the ground whose thinking and verdict matters in elections.

It has been observed that a vast majority among them is immune to social media influences. Electoral politics is not about impressing people intellectually or building  narratives through social media only but it is about connecting to the people in real and establishing a strong rapport with them.

Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir