Budget & Statehood

Converting J&K, the most empowered state in the Union of India, to a Union Territory was an event. Its restoration as a vanilla state will be a process; a long and arduous one. Also, besides political wisdom, it will require legislative wherewithal and administrative acumen. Unlike a gordian knot, it cannot be cut but will have to be untied, untangled and unwound.

Whether promised in the Parliament, or nudged by the Supreme Court, to expect statehood to be restored soon is not being optimistic but being politically naive. Statehood is not on the cards anytime soon. Even in the current year, the Union Home Ministry tightened its grip by appointing Internal Financial Advisors with delegation of wide-ranging financial powers.

It has not been adequately highlighted that not a single national political party defended the special status of J&K nor opposed its abrogation. Even the federalist parties like AIDMK, DMK, SP, TDP, and the CPI (M) questioned only the method and manner of downgrading J&K specifically from a State to a Union Territory with Legislature. No none of any consequence has even suggested that they would examine the possibility of restoring the special constitutional position of J&K. True, most political parties including the Congress and regional parties, would support a vanilla statehood. So does the BJP, in principle.

If indeed that be so, the decision to restore statehood will be based not so much on the situation or sentiment in Valley but on the evolving politics of the country. The demand for restoration of vanilla statehood will be met only when it suits the politics of the ruling regime.

Looking at the style and success of BJP’s real politik, it should not be ignored that today it is sitting smug in J&K: occupying the opposition benches and running the state. It has the highest vote share and has one third share of the legislative assembly. It is often glossed over that even in the election of 2014, the vote share of BJP was the highest.

Any further fragmentation of the Valley votes or any more consolidation of Jammu votes which is likely on the promise of statehood, brings them within striking distance of forming a government in J&K. Despite NC having a clear and comfortable majority, the political situation is fluid. These are uncharted waters never navigated by anyone in J&K.

The ruling party, adopting a non-combative style is increasingly coming across as apologetic and being accused of genuflecting. This even though NC is the only party with depth in leadership and breadth of cadres. Its electoral ally and governance non-ally, the Congress party is generally clueless, but after being left out, is even more so.

The smaller parties and groups are having fun playing to the gallery and undermining the limited authority that the ruling party has. Admittedly, it is an integral and important part of democratic politics. Yet, in the current context it becomes counterproductive by creating a vacuum in the Valley with BJP getting positioned as the alternative even in the valley.

All these are imponderables that will unfold going forward. For now, and in the near foreseeable future, it will remain status quo. The objective should be to manoeuvre the existing system taking it closer to the status of a state. Statehood will follow. This is not to suggest that political pressure and personal relationships should not be invoked to get statehood earlier.

The downgrade to a UT is fundamentally a legislative disempowerment which has resulted in an emaciated executive authority. The curtailment of the administrative powers, barring security, which is the one most talked about, are perhaps the low hanging fruit. Some of this may be happening even now. There have been no major flash-points even as there seem to have been some turf skirmishes. So, without making it personal, the equation that needs to be changed is the systemic one: between the Union and the state to be.

It is in this context that the opportunity to present the Budget arose. Besides security matters, this document embodies the crux of the relations with the Union. What made it even more significant was the Chief Minister also being the finance minister. While it is not a model that has worked well anywhere as it gives officers much greater leeway in running the department, here it was a big plus. It lent administrative gravitas and political weight to the budget speech.

Obviously, the context was far more important than the numerical details and nomenclature of the budget. The government, as I wrote in my previous column, failed to leverage it. The wood was lost for the trees. The Budget didn’t have a political message and economic agenda that would further its cause of statehood. Nor surprisingly, the debate in the house also degenerated into the size of the Centrally Sponsored Schemes. Is the fiscal timidity strategic or is it just bureaucratic complacency? Perhaps, the latter.

As an astute reader messaged me, “it is not a potential state’s budget”. He hit the nail on the head. It is an unsure UT’s budget. The objectives reflected inertia, and the fiscal policy lacked imagination. It is more like a demand for grants of a department of the Union home ministry department which had been recently approved by the parliament.

Indeed, the objective of this budget should have been to reclaim statehood in the sphere of centre-state financial relations. The route using the J&K Reorganisation Act, 2019, was outlined in the earlier column. It can still be the basis of a dialogue. There is no downside. Yet there is a political upside. This would start the process to untangle the UT knot.

The idea is to get J&K treated as a “de facto state” in matters of federal finance even as the de jure status continues. It will be a big step forward. The ruling party would do well to proactively look for opportunities, legislative and administrative, to push the boundaries. A road map will not emerge from above, it has to evolve from below.

It will need not months but years of political relationship and negotiations to reach the reclamation point. It will require months of back room work and back breaking diligence to get statehood restored. Till then the elected government must score small victories and gains a la, “Weapons of the Weak”, to keep the morale of the masses up. People in the Valley are treading on eggshells; such is the level of insecurity.

The author is Contributing Editor Greater Kashmir