BJP's recent spectacular win and coming parliamentary polls in J&K

The recent impressive victory in the assembly polls in three states came at a very right time for the BJP. This happened only four months before the crucial Lok Sabha (Parliamentary) elections. After the recent election result, a more confident BJP leadership has sent a loud and clear message to the people across the country that their party is coming to power for the third consecutive time in 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The parties in the divided opposition camp too on their part are analysing the BJP victory and its impact on the parliamentary polls. The political parties in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh too are busy discussing such an impact. The immediate effect can be on the whatever political gains, made by Congress in the districts of Jammu and the union territory of Ladakh during last few years. It is to be seen whether the party is able to neutralise the effect and move forward. The BJP leaders in Jammu have started telling the people that they have won the semi- final ( assembly polls) and would win the final ( parliamentary elections) as well in 2024.

There were reports of BJP losing its grip in Jammu and that opposition more particularly Congress getting an edge. The opposition was blaming the BJP " for not working for the interests of the people of Jammu." BJP leadership had denied such reports and allegations saying they are very much in control in Jammu and doing their best to serve the people there. The leaders also keep on referring to peace and development during BJP rule in J&K. They blame Congress for misleading the people for its vested interests.

In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP in Jammu had won both the seats- Jammu and Udhampur . The party hopes to repeat the performance in 2024 also. BJP has now started eyeing on the newly crafted (during delimitation exercise) seat of Anantnag- Poonch in view of the scheduled tribe status to be granted to Paharis and others. Anantnag was a separate constituency in 2014 having south Kashmir districts.

Poonch was part of Jammu constituency at that time. During delimitation several parts of Anantnag Lok Sabha seat were merged with Srinagar and that of Srinagar with Baramulla and that of Baramulla with Srinagar. At the moment the National Conference (NC) leadership says it can win all the three seats - Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag-Poonch and is in no mood to leave any seat for any other party in Kashmir.

NC had bagged all the three seats in Valley in 2019 polls. On the other hand PDP has a feeling that it can win atleast the Anantnag - Poonch seat. Both the parties say they have no fear of BJP in the three seats or the fear of the impact of the recent assembly polls results in the three states. According to them this is because BJP has not been able to consolidate its position in Kashmir to the extent that it can pose a challenge to them atleast in Lok Sabha polls. However, Apni Party and People's Conference are optimistic about their good performance saying they can give surprise in parliamentary polls. BJP leadership views that they are confident of doing well in Kashmir also as they have been able to connect with the masses extensively for last several years. They say the people are happy with the development work and welfare schemes by BJP government.

So far as the Ladakh is concerned it is to be seen how the new BJP wave is going to affect the parliament polls there. Some months back the NC- Congress combine had won the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council ( LAHDC)- Kargil polls. The parties are intending to field a joint candidate against the BJP for Lok Sabha polls. Now since the central government has resumed talks with the Ladakh leadership to discuss latter's demands, it too can affect the parliamentary polls in the cold desert. If the talks make some forward movement this can help the BJP.

Unlike most other national and regional parties, BJP takes all elections including parliament and assembly more seriously. The party leaves no stone unturned in devising an effective strategy and its right execution at the election time. From the top leadership to a worker , every body gets involved. Their efforts get later reflected in the poll results too as was evident from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The victory of Congress in Telengana got almost eclipsed with its defeat in the three states in Hindi belt. By going all alone in the polls, an over- confident Congress had to suffer miserably.

Division of votes among the opposition parties, which are otherwise allies in Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A), in a number of constituencies proved costly for Congress. The premier national opposition party had refused to leave seats for the allies particularly for former UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party in Madhya Pradesh. Congress was very much confident of winning assembly polls in one or two states in the Hindi belt. The victory would have given it the required confidence to take on BJP in Lok Sabha polls and to have a good share in the seat arrangement among I.N.D.I.A allies.

But this did not happen. The poll debacle is going to affect the Congress' s future strategy for Lok Sabha elections. It is to be also seen whether the seat sharing arrangement among I.N.D.I.A will actually materialise now or not. And if it materialises who will be part of such an arrangement. With the defeat Congress has returned to a weak wicket now. During the next four months it has to take important and effective measures to be in some kind of race , otherwise it will be a one sided affair.

Political analysts say Congress is no match to the successful election campaigning of BJP led by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself and his connectivity with the voters. BJP leadership is able to communicate its policies and achievements well to the masses at the ground level. The leaders lose no chance to hit at the weakness of the opposition including the careless and irresponsible social media posts by some of the Congress leaders from time to time.

These posts at times extensively damage Congress's own electoral interests. Barring assembly polls in few states for last several years, the Congress seemed directionless and clueless. Amid the confusion and free for all show, created by it , the party failed in electoral politics on most occasions. After the latest poll results the command of Congress over the I.N.D.I.A allies has got further weakened.