BJP's poll strategy to remain unchanged
Despite the recent important statements made by National Conference (NC) President Dr Farooq Abdullah, the strategy of BJP regarding parliamentary and assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir is to remain unchanged. This also became evident from the speech of Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a public rally in Jammu. He stated that Jammu and Kashmir suffered immensely in past due to the rule of a few families, who preferred development of their members over the development of the people. The Prime Minister said that it was a matter of satisfaction for him that Jammu and Kashmir is getting freedom from the dynastic politics. Referring to the abrogation of Article 370, he reiterated his appeal to the people of the country to give 370 seats to BJP and 400 plus seats to National Democratic Alliance (NDA), headed by BJP, in coming parliamentary polls to maintain the tempo of development.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP’s strategy is to win again the Jammu and Udhampur Lok sabha seats and also bag the Anantnag-Rajouri-Poonch seat. For assembly polls also the BJP wants to get as much seats as possible to reach near the absolute majority figure and have its own Chief Minister for the first time in J&K. Political observers say that BJP will have to get the support of other parties also for forming the government. Till recently it was being believed in political circles that the saffron party may try to seek the support of smaller parties from Kashmir.
However, the recent statements of Dr Farooq Abdullah did cause some ripples in the political circles. Some rival parties alleged that NC has “behind the scene understanding with the BJP.” But such charges were vehemently denied by the NC leadership. During a media interaction and later in a conversation with a national television news channel, the NC President stated that his party will contest the parliamentary and assembly polls on its own and that it will not form a pre- poll alliance with any party. Asked if there is a possibility of NC joining again the BJP led NDA in future, he said,” As of now there is no such situation. Regarding future nothing can be said since political parties keep all their options open. We together have to strengthen this country and carry it forward.”
Dr Farooq Abdullah blamed the opposition’s Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance ( I.N.D.I.A) for not resolving the seat sharing issue and forcing allies like NC to announce to go solo in the polls.
NC President’s latest move has both, the advantages and the disadvantages for his party and its leadership. Since the advantages are there, that is why he made such important statements just before the crucial elections. And the disadvantage also, and that is why the NC Vice President Omar Abdullah had to immediately do the “damage control exercise to clarify things.”
Obvious advantage number one of Dr Farooq Abdullah’s statements: Reduction of pressure, if any, on NC to disassociate itself from Congress and not to form any pre-poll alliance. Second advantage: To send a message to the all concerned quarters in J&K that they can no longer write-off NC in the power game and that party is ready to strike a chord with the BJP. Third advantage: To disturb other parties,who were intending or were assured to have some kind of tie- up with the BJP in government formation after assembly polls.
Disadvantage: The public support for NC during elections can get negatively affected. This because the party had taken a very tough stand against BJP publicly after the abrogation of Article 370. Other rival parties can try to get the benefit out of the “changing stance” of NC.
So far as BJP is concerned it is happy with the new development because the party does not want opposition to get united in elections. It is unlikely that BJP would go soft towards NC at this crucial time of elections. Being soft can affect BJP’s own interests not only in Jammu region but at national level also. The saffron party has been blaming NC , PDP and Congress for all ills in J&K . Right now the BJP will continue its focus to go into parliamentary polls with full strength and later in the assembly polls also. The intense attack by it against NC, PDP and Congress for “promoting dynastic politics and corruption” and blaming the three parties for all the ills in J&K will continue till the assembly polls are held and results declared. Then it will be interesting to watch what moves the BJP will make for government formation. Will it prefer smaller parties, if those are in a position to strike a deal or the NC will be given preference? There are some who were saying that the Apni Party and People’s Conference can get good number of seats which the PDP used to get in past. This is because the two parties particularly Apni Party has the leaders, who have won polls in the past and some of them have the chances of winning again this time. PDP is said to have recovered a lot of its lost ground but is facing shortage of powerful candidates. National Conference has the potential to deliver effectively since it is the premier political party and has no shortage of senior and junior leaders. The only question is how the party will be able to mange on electoral front the effects of the friendly gestures of Dr Farooq Abdullah towards NDA for future.
Right now Omar Abdullah says that NC is still a part of I.N.D.I.A bloc and that talks can be held with Congress regarding seat sharing for Jammu, Udhampur and Ladakh seats. He has ruled out going back to NDA. Omar knows that even if his party may later think about joining NDA but talking about it now at the election time can be politically damaging. If one goes by his statement, then NC will contest from Srinagar, Baramulla, and Anantnag-Rajouri-Poonch seats. According to him, his party is ready to talk to Congress about seat sharing for Jammu, Udhampur and Ladakh parliamentary constituencies. In such a scenario there is no room to adjust the PDP, which has also intensified its poll related preparations and held meetings. PDP has said it will shortly announce its candidates.
While PDP has not yet officially commented on what Dr Farooq Abdullah recently said, but Chairman of Democratic Progressive Azad Party DPAP Ghulam Nabi Azad has come openly against the NC saying the party is power hungry and is ready to go with BJP even after the revocation of Article 370. He reminded NC of its previous association with the BJP. Azad has stated that while his party will field candidates in all the five parliamentary constituencies in J&K, he may not himself contest.
It is not only Azad who criticised National Conference after Dr Farooq’s statement, even a senior BJP leader Devendra Singh Rana revealed how keen NC is to have a strategic tie up with his party since 2014 assembly polls. Rana, a former NC leader and ex-political advisor to Omar Abdullah said, “NC wanted to form government with BJP in 2014 and later when there was a gap in government formation after the death of the then chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed. Even NC wanted to have a strategic tie up with BJP before and after the abrogation of Article 370. Every time NC’s offers were rejected,” he said. Rana said he does not know how the BJP will respond now to such offers by NC.
J&K BJP President Ravinder Raina said that it is upto his party high command to take a decision if NC wants to join NDA in future.
Author is senior editor Greater Kashmir
