BJP's mission for absolute majority

After a series of high level meetings in New Delhi and Jammu recently, BJP has formally set a target to get absolute majority in assembly elections,  form its government and have its own chief minister for the first time in Jammu and Kashmir. Necessary directions were given to party cadres in this direction. But can the target or mission be actually achieved by the BJP and how easy or how difficult the task will be for the party? This all can  become clear in coming times.

Since 2002, no political party has got absolute majority in J&K assembly elections and subsequently the coalition governments were formed. Political analysts say that in view of the recent parliamentary poll results and the present political scenario, it seems that no party can get absolute majority in 2024 assembly polls also and a coalition government has to be there again. But then there is nothing wrong for the political parties in trying to get the majority and making impossible possible. However, amid their attempts the electoral verdict lies with the people.

In 2014 , BJP had almost swept the assembly polls in Jammu. This enabled the party to be part of a coalition government (with PDP) for the first time in the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir. However, the coalition government was short circuited as BJP pulled out later.

After the August 5, 2019 decisions by the central government, the electoral politics map was drastically changed in Jammu and Kashmir. The delimitation exercise added six more assembly seats to Jammu and one to Kashmir. Two members from Kashmiri migrants will now be nominated by Lieutenant Governor for assembly with voting rights  and one from displaced persons of Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK). Some  opposition parties said that they are not against such nominations but  opposed the move on the grounds that the Lieutenant Governor must not himself nominate them. According to the parties, the nominations must be made by the Lieutenant Governor on the recommendation of an elected government. For the first time nine assembly constituencies have been kept reserved for scheduled tribes. Seven constituencies have been reserved for scheduled castes. The west Pakistan refugees will also get voting rights in assembly polls for the first time. Earlier, they could vote only  in parliamentary polls. The  boundaries of several assembly and parliamentary constituencies were redrawn. Rival political parties have been alleging that some of these measures are aimed at helping the BJP electorally. But BJP refuted the charges saying all the measures were required.

Amid these moves, the big question remains whether  BJP can repeat its 2014 assembly elections performance in Jammu this time also or  not. Repeating the performance is the first major  step for the BJP to form its  government in J&K. If one goes by the statements of senior BJP leaders then their party will do better in assembly polls. They in this connection refer to the victory of their  candidates for the third consecutive time from Udhampur and Jammu in recent parliamentary polls. They say BJP got highest vote share in J&K even as it had not fielded any candidate in the three parliamentary constituencies in Kashmir. The party had supported like minded parties, who performed poorly, in Valley.  Political analysts say that the victory margin of BJP candidates in Jammu and Udhampur seats was lesser than what it was in 2019 and 2014. Secondly, there was also increase in the vote share of Congress.  A section among the BJP leadership is not happy with it and wants to arrest the trend before it creates serious problems in assembly polls. The party intends to go for an extensive public outreach programme to inform the masses at the grassroots level about the achievements of BJP government in the country particularly in Jammu made during the last 10 years. The rival parties particularly Congress will try to corner BJP on some important issues being faced by the people in Jammu. Issues like growing unemployment among educated youth,  corruption in some  recruitment processes and their subsequent cancellations, power crisis, inflation and alleged losses to Jammu trade due to ending of durbar move practice  will be highlighted by Congress during assembly polls as it did during parliamentary elections. It is to be seen how BJP is able to handle this criticism more particularly when such issues do take centre stage in assembly polls. Congress's lack of interest to strengthen its party structure or cadres after BJP decimated it in 2014 can help the latter in assembly polls. Congress did not strengthen itself the way it should have during last 10 years.

Besides sweeping polls in Jammu, winning seats in Kashmir is also very important for BJP if it has to get a majority in assembly elections and form its own government. Going by the recent parliamentary elections, the BJP is yet to make its significant presence felt in Kashmir. The party did not contest the Lok Sabha polls and said it will wait for "winning the hearts of the people first." The dismal performance of its like minded parties was not also an encouraging sign for it. If the scenario remained like this then  getting majority by the BJP looks impossible. The party necessarily needs some seats in Kashmir even if it does a complete sweep in Jammu.

If BJP repeats its 2014 performance in Jammu and fails to break any ice in Kashmir, it will be left with no option but to form a  coalition government with Kashmir based parties. If the like minded parties are able to get the seats then forming a coalition government will not be a difficult task for BJP. But if that did not happen then NC or PDP can be the other options for BJP. But can BJP form the government with these parties when it is always accusing them of promoting dynastic politics and having done bad to J&K  by their wrong policies in past.

Political analysts say that no Kashmir based traditional party will get absolute majority in the elections. For  getting majority the parties need good number of seats both in Kashmir and Jammu. But that looks unlikely. Whether NC forms an electoral alliance with Congress or not, but it would expect Congress to do well in Jammu for forming a coalition government with it. If this does not happen then BJP is the only choice left for NC for forming a coalition government. Can NC join hands with BJP after assembly polls even when Article 370 has been revoked and J&K bifurcated into two union territories?  But then political parties are known for sometimes doing things contrary to what they say during elections. This has happened in the past but cannot necessarily happen every time.

Will the government formation get delayed for long or will not occur at all after assembly elections in case of the parties' failure to form a coalition government following a fractured mandate? If that happens then the scenario will not be different at that time (despite holding of assembly polls) from what it is today.