BJP maintains highest vote share across J&K; NC 2nd

Jammu, Oct 9: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), though has not been successful in achieving its Mission 50 plus or even securing 35 seats on its own yet has undoubtedly established itself as a formidable force in J&K, surging ahead of all parties, in terms of vote share.

The party, in the 2024 assembly election, while improving its seat tally to 29 – its best-ever performance in J&K’s electoral history, has also achieved another distinction by procuring the highest vote share of 25.64 percent.

The party has managed to maintain its supremacy over all other parties – regional as well as national political parties since 2014. While it is far ahead of its traditional rival Congress on this account also, it has even surpassed the National Conference (NC), which is way ahead of it (BJP), in terms of seat tally. BJP bagged 29 seats while NC secured 42 seats with a vote share of 23.43 percent.

As the BJP has not been able to make successful inroads in the Kashmir region, its surging vote share in the Jammu region is a reason behind its distinction (highest vote share).

However, micro-analysis of its performance in Kashmir shows that its vote share in Kashmir too is improving, though not dramatically, yet slowly and steadily. No wonder, the party finished as runner-up in the Gurez assembly segment of Kashmir division during these assembly elections.

Closely following the BJP, NC too has been able to better its vote share. However, their bête noire Congress (in the case of BJP) and PDP (in the case of NC) have suffered a setback in terms of vote share as well.

Congress’ vote share has taken a steep plunge when compared to its performance even during Lok Sabha elections.

Congress bagged an 11.97 percent vote share in the 2024 assembly elections while PDP secured a vote share of 8.87 percent. AAP, which has scored its maiden victory in J&K springing a surprise for all, managed a vote share of 0.52 percent in 2024 assembly polls. Intriguingly others (including independents) have a vote share of 24.83 percent, closely behind BJP and slightly ahead of NC.

Interestingly, NOTA (1.48 percent) has captured even better vote share than many of prominent national and regional political parties viz., BSP (0.96 percent); CPI(M) (0.59 percent); JD(U) (0.13 percent); JKNPPB (0.13 percent) and JKNPPI (1.16 percent).

During the Lok Sabha polls of 2024 also, BJP scored the highest vote share in J&K - 24.36 percent; ahead of NC (22.30 percent) and Congress (19.38 percent). PDP bagged 8.48 percent while NOTA accounted for 0.67 percent vote share.

Both Congress and PDP could not maintain even the vote share they gained during the Lok Sabha polls of 2024.

In the 2014 assembly elections, BJP gained a vote share of 22.98 percent; JKPDP 22.67 percent; NC 20.77 percent; Congress 18.01 percent; JKNPP 1.99 percent BSP 1.41 percent and CPM 0.50 percent.

During the 2024 assembly elections, notwithstanding the loss of the prestigious Nowshera seat, BJP, on the whole, managed to hold its supremacy in the Jammu region, where it emerged as the single largest party.

On the other hand, Congress stalwarts including former ministers Chowdhary Lal Singh, Tara Chand, Raman Bhalla, Mula Ram, Yogesh Sawhney, Vikar Rasool Wani, and Manohar Lal faced drubbing at the hustings.

Devender Rana of BJP achieved a distinction in scoring victory from the Nagrota assembly segment of Jammu district with the highest margin - 30,472 votes, across J&K. Rana polled 48,113 votes to beat his nearest rival Joginder Singh of National Conference, who bagged 17,641 votes. Engaged in a friendly contest here, Congress candidate Balbir Singh finished third.

Another BJP candidate and former minister Surjit Singh Slathia also earned a big victory with a margin of 30309 votes- the third highest across J&K. He trounced independent Ravinder Kumar, who bagged 12873 votes.

In Kishtwar, BJP’s lone woman candidate Shagun Parihar, who was described by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his campaigning as “BJP’s face” in its “fight against terror”, too registered a win, though with a slender margin of 521 votes over her nearest opponent NC candidate and former minister Sajjad Ahmed Kichloo. Shagun bagged 29053 votes.

Notably, besides Shagun, only two women candidates, both from the National Conference, managed to win across J&K. They both (Shamim Firdous from Habba Kadal and Sakeena Masood from D H Pora) were from Kashmir.

In another neck-and-neck engaging contest, former minister and BJP’s senior leader Sunil Sharma defeated J&K National Conference’s Pooja Thakur by a margin of 1546 votes from the Padder Nageseni assembly segment of Kishtwar district.

Sunil Sharma bagged 16543 votes out of 33796 total votes polled, thus registering 50.41 percent votes against Pooja, who got 15490 votes (45.83 percent).

From the Inderwal segment, an independent and a congress rebel Payare Lal Sharma got 14195 votes and defeated former minister and senior Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) leader G M Saroori, who contested as an independent with a margin of 643 votes. Congress candidate Mohd Zafarullah and BJP candidate Tariq Hussain Keen finished third and fourth respectively.

Out of Jammu district’s 11 assembly segments, BJP secured the win on ten while from Chhamb, one independent candidate Satish Sharma, a Congress rebel, polled 33985 votes to defeat its (BJP) candidate Rajeev Sharma with a margin of 6929 votes. Here former Deputy Chief Minister Tara Chand, who contested as Congress candidate, finished third with 5979 votes.

From Akhnoor (SC), BJP’s Mohan Lal defeated Congress candidate Ashok Kumar with a big margin of 24,679 votes. Mohan Lal procured 49927 votes.

From Bahu, Vikram Randhawa of BJP bagged 40385 votes to gain an edge over nearest rival Congress candidate Taranjit Singh Tony, who secured 29134 votes. From Jammu North, former minister and BJP candidate Sham Lal Sharma also scored an impressive victory over his NC rival, also a former minister, Ajay Kumar Sadhotra, with a margin of 27363 votes. Sham Lal bagged 47219 votes.

From R S Pura-Jammu South, former minister and Congress candidate Raman Bhalla faced defeat at the hands of BJP candidate Narinder Singh Raina by 1966 votes.

From Kathua district’s six seats, BJP secured five seats while one seat was won by an independent Rameshwar Singh, defeating BJP candidate Jeewan Lal with a margin of 2048 votes.

From Basohli's seat in Kathua district, former minister and Congress Chowdhary Lal Singh faced drubbing. BJP candidate Darshan Kumar defeated him with a margin of 16034 votes.

In Samba and Udhampur districts, BJP made a clean sweep, by registering a win in all three and four assembly segments respectively. In Chenani, BJP’s Balwant Singh Mankotia defeated former minister and Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party (India) candidate Harshdev Singh with a margin of 15611 votes.

In the Rajouri district, BJP bagged one seat, NC two seats and Congress one while one seat was bagged by an independent. In Poonch district, NC got two seats while one seat was bagged by an independent candidate.

In Reasi district, the BJP got two seats while one seat was bagged by NC; in Doda district, the BJP got two seats however from the Doda assembly segment, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidate Mehraj Malik sprang a surprise by defeating BJP candidate Gajay Singh Rana with a margin of 4538 votes. In Ramban district, both seats were bagged by NC.

While the party has managed to win all seven reserved seats for Scheduled Castes in the Jammu region; its hopes to win even a single seat reserved for Scheduled Tribes, out of nine, have failed to materialise. It had contested all six ST seats in the Jammu region and lost all of them.

Intriguingly, BJP’s dominance over the Jammu region, almost across the Hindu belt, has seen a new situation unfolding.

Out of 43 seats in the Jammu region, the Congress-NC combine won only eight seats (seven by NC and one by Congress).

Out of them, only two - Surinder Chowdhary (from the Nowshera segment) and Ajay Singh Raju (from the Ramban segment), come from the Hindu community. Both belong to NC. This scenario, demonstrating the wide gulf between Kashmir and Jammu region reaffirmed by public mandate, will be reflected in the J&K cabinet as well.

No wonder, NC leadership has understood it and that is why, it is talking about the “need to bridge this gulf by giving a sense of ownership to the Jammu region.”