Bihar’s Political Crucible: A battle for the soul of the heartland

As a cardiologist, like any physician, I understand that health is not just about genetics or lifestyle; it is deeply affected by social and political determinants. These include poverty, education, access to clean water, sanitation, and healthcare infrastructure—all of which are shaped by the government elected in a state like Bihar. The Bihar election and its focus on governance issues like healthcare quality, educational reform, and corruption provide a case study. A cardiologist can analyse how political choices in one region (Bihar) affect the well-being of its population and use those lessons to prompt discussion and advocacy for better governance and public services in Kashmir irrespective of the fact whether statehood is restored or not in the near future.

The Bihar Assembly Elections of 2025 are not just another state poll; they represent a political crucible where national and regional dynamics clash, generational change is knocking, and the very narrative of governance is being redefined. With polling staggered across two crucial phases—November 6 and November 11—and the verdict due on November 14, the nation watches with bated breath to see if this election will mark a seismic shift or reassert traditional power equations.

The intensity of the contest is best mirrored by the unwavering political engagement of the Bihari people. This is an electorate renowned for its political awareness, and their commitment is visible in extraordinary ways. Anecdotes abound of citizens, who had migrated for work across the country, making the long journey back home specifically to cast their vote. Furthermore, in a profound reflection of civic duty, many who had travelled for the major festival of Chhath Puja are choosing to stay back, prioritizing their franchise over festivities. This deep-rooted activism underscores the belief that this election is a consequential moment for the state’s future.

The central tension of this election is a direct face-off between two formidable forces: the regional strength and youthful appeal of Tejashwi Yadav and the enduring national influence of the Modi factor. Tejashwi leading the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), has successfully harnessed the youth’s simmering anger over unemployment and migration. His campaign has been relentless, with a core promise of providing government jobs, a pledge that speaks directly to a state where over half the voters are under 40. He aims to convert the anti-incumbency sentiment against the long-serving previous regimes into a decisive mandate for change.

Against this, the Modi factor remains the anchor for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the top BJP brass have campaigned heavily, using the narrative of development and invoking the spectre of “jungle raj” to counter Tejashwi’s momentum. The NDA’s pitch rests on a blend of central welfare schemes, infrastructure development claims, and the national leader’s personal popularity, which cuts across caste lines. The key question remains: will the aspirational youth vote for Tejashwi’s job guarantee, or will the national pull of PM Modi still hold sway?

The Intricacies and Intrigues

Adding layers of intrigue to the political landscape is the presence of key influencers and unfolding developments. First, the political strategist-turned-activist Prashant Kishor is a dark horse. His “Jan Suraaj” movement is positioned as a radical alternative, challenging both the established alliances. Though not expected to win a large number of seats, his presence and campaign, which focuses on ground-level issues like education and governance, could significantly siphon votes and split the mandate in key constituencies, potentially hurting either the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan.

Second, the campaign has seen high-voltage rhetoric and unexpected twists, including revelations involving Rahul Gandhi. The Congress leader has thrown his weight behind the Mahagathbandhan, holding extensive rallies and engaging in sharp verbal exchanges with the Prime Minister. These developments have added a layer of volatility, suggesting that while the contest may feature intense ideological debates, the possibility of unscrupulous tactics and personal attacks coming into play to sway voter sentiment is very real. His commitment is also a major test for the Congress party’s ability to remain relevant in the Hindi heartland.

Beyond the personality clashes, the election is fundamentally being shaped by the revelations of the state’s groundbreaking caste census, which has triggered a profound political churning. The population share of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) has made them the most decisive factor. Alliances are desperately working to accommodate these aspirations, balancing the traditional Yadav-Muslim base of the RJD with the need to win over other major groups.

The most prominent issues defining the contest, however, are youth employment and migration. While the NDA promises investments and skill centres to boost industrial jobs, the opposition is banking on direct government job guarantees. Bihar stands at a crossroads, where its endemic issues of out-migration and underdevelopment demand structural change, making every promise and every ballot count.

The Bihar Elections of 2025 are thus a multi-layered drama: a battle of development models, a generational transfer of power, and a test of the efficacy of the national versus regional narrative. Will this be the turning point that reshapes Bihar’s political future, or will the traditional dynamics simply reassert themselves in a new form? Only the count on November 14 will deliver the final, eagerly awaited answer.

Prof Upendra Kaul, Founder Director Gauri Kaul Foundation