Bihar: A electoral trial

The Bihar Assembly Elections-2025 will be a test case, both for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A), which for electoral purposes is baptised as ‘Mahaghatbandhan’ (greater alliance). Given the fact that Bihar as the land of political movements has been a trend setter for the rest of the country whenever there has been a political upheaval or a yearning to protest against the wrong policies of an incumbent government. Under the circumstances current round of polls in Bihar is significant.

The fact that the contest is between two alliances anchored by two national political parties, it is another matter that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Janata Dal (U), due to their local strength and proficiency in caste-politics, are the mainstay of the rival combines. The outcome hinges strongly on how the RJD and JD(U) perform but that does not take away anything from the significance of Congress, BJP and other smaller parties, in the rival camps, as they have also to perform as strong supporting actors.

The NDA and ‘Mahaghatbandhan’ initially started on an even keel with both facing familiar sets of problems including first identifying the potential allies with an eye on caste combinations followed by distribution of seats. The contrast is that while BJP lorded over as a boss over the NDA, at times overriding JD(U) supremo and chief minister Mr Nitish Kumar who seemed to be playing second fiddle, on I.N.D.I.A bloc front RJD leader and chief ministerial candidate of the combine, Mr Tejeshawi Yadav emerged as the one dictating the terms. At times, it gave an impression that the Congress leader and a mainstay of the opposition alliance’s campaign, Mr Rahul Gandhi has been pushed to the corner.

The one battle line seems to be very clear. It is Kumar versus Tejeshawi on the battleground with a corresponding Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi duel unfolding, as ever in the past, in the backdrop. It clearly reflects the local as well as national significance of the Bihar assembly elections. No doubt, the poll outcome will decide the length of Mr Kumar’s political future as he is already in the twilight of his career. It will also set course for 35-year-old RJD leader who has the advantage of age on his side.

More importantly, from the national perspective, the election has an added significance both for the BJP (Modi) and Congress (Rahul). The former which is surviving on crutches in the aftermath of failing to secure even a simple majority in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and JD(U) becoming a significant pivot for Modi government’s survival, should be looking at victory in Bihar and continuation of Mr Kumar as chief minister in the context of Modi dispensation’s survival at the Centre. In the event of I.N.D.I.A combine managing to dethrone NDA, a tricky situation will emerge for not only the Modi government but also Nitish and his JD(U) which will become vulnerable to BJP’s poaching tactics.

After overcoming initial hiccups and some self-installed roadblocks, biggest one being Congress’s reluctance in agreeing to Mr Tejeshawi as the combine’s chief ministerial candidate, the Rahul-Tejeshawi duo hit the road in right earnest. It was to overcome the disadvantage on account of this delay (CM nominee) and Mr Gandhi’s ill-advised 15-day sojourn to far-off South America. In order to stay in the contest, they will have to match their rivals, BJP-headed NDA.

In some ways, it should be a must win battle for Mr Gandhi who has even bigger stake than Mr Yadav. A victory, though being junior alliance partner, will boost Mr Gandhi’s own political career and could set Congress on course to an upward trajectory provided the party takes right measures to weed out the deadwood and the thriving BJP-sleeper cells. A loss will further push Mr Gandhi to a tight corner and Congress in a more difficult situation.

Apart from the usual factors which determine electoral victory or loss, an additional and more significant issue which has come into play in Bihar is the hurriedly carried out Special Intensive Review (SIR) of voter lists by the Election Commission of India leading to deletion of large number of voters. The fact that Mr Gandhi successfully brought this issue to limelight, after having lost assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra on account of the same factor (as alleged by him), through his ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’, has raised Congress’s electoral stakes. An I.N.D.I.A defeat will provide Modi-brigade a handle to further target Mr Gandhi and his vigorous campaign against vote-manipulation.

The second round in this extremely important battle seems to have gone the I.N.D.I.A way after its initial failure to seize big a psychological advantage by declaring Mr Yadav as the chief ministerial candidate before Mr Gandhi’s foreign visit. That interregnum gave NDA some advantage and ammunition to expose chinks in the opposition combine. However, the NDA also faltered, to a great extent, by not clearly announcing Mr Kumar as the chief ministerial nominee of the ruling bloc. The repeat mention by the BJP leaders including Home Minister Mr Amit Shah that the elected NDA MLAs will elect the chief minister, took some sting out of the ruling alliance’s attack on the rivals.

The advantage in the next round clearly went to the ‘Mahaghatbandhan’. The Congress realizing its folly backed Mr Tejeshawi as the chief ministerial nominee of the combine. As a result, it gave significant elbow space to the Gandhi-Tejeshawi duo to launch a counter-offensive against the NDA in questioning who was their CM candidate.

Firstly, Mr Gandhi’s campaign against SIR, which grabbed considerable traction among people, put pressure on the NDA and its leaders and took some steam out of their attempts to take a high moral ground from the very beginning. Secondly, by declaring its CM candidate, the I.N.D.I.A bloc showed a positive intent to take on the BJP’s propaganda machinery thereby forcing the Modi-Shah duo in finally declaring Mr Kumar as the chief minister nominee.

Despite a well-oiled and resourceful machinery at its command, BJP had been setting the agenda and forcing the opposition (read Congress) to react and most of the time fall in the former’s track since 2014. However, this trend had changed after the last Lok Sabha election with a dependent Modi government and BJP faltering in public discourse aimed at setting agenda rather than reacting to a situation.

Bihar is the latest example wherein the BJP has been forced to react to a situation rather than act. Certainly, advantage at this juncture goes to I.N.D.I.A combine which still has many bridges to cross to ultimately emerge victorious. First and foremost, they must keep their flock together and the poll campaign should be issue based and focused, and caste combination in proper denomination. The offensive started by them, and cornering the BJP on the issue of CM candidate, should be continued with the same vigour.