Beneath the Cloud: Extreme weather events on rise in J&K

Srinagar, Aug 30: It is Jammu and Kashmir’s August nightmare.

During this month of disaster, from Kishtwar to Vaishno Devi to south Kashmir, J&K endured eight cloudbursts, leaving communities in ruins.

J&K is scarred by unprecedented flash floods, landslides, and devastation caused by frequent torrential rains and cloudbursts.

Hundreds of lives have been lost, and many are still buried under mud and rubble swept by raging waters in the mountains.

In August, at least eight areas in J&K have been struck by one or more cloudbursts.

Experts are of the opinion that the word cloudburst is being used loosely for any event of torrential rainfall.

A cloudburst refers to a weather event where a cloud discharges a copious amount of water instantly, in around 5 minutes.

Typically, a cloudburst is when precipitation of more than 100 mm of rain per hour falls in an area of around 10 sq km within minutes.

This causes flash floods and landslides, especially in hilly terrains.

In addition to cloudbursts, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall have been frequent over the past month.

Are such extreme weather events increasing?

According to weather experts, the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture increases approximately 7 percent for every degree Celsius increase.

Global warming surely creates conditions for extreme precipitation.

The Himalayan region, a confluence point of many weather systems and currents and fragile ecology, is particularly vulnerable to these changes.

Over the past 12 years (2010-2022), a research study documented 168 cloudburst incidents in J&K.

The study published in the 2024 issue of Mausam Journal (Metrology, Hydrology, and Geophysics), carried out by Mukhtar Ahmad, Sonam Lotus, and others, has documented extreme weather events during this period.

It noted that flash floods caused the highest toll in Kishtwar, Anantnag, Ganderbal, and Doda.

The trend analysis results also revealed that there is a significant increase in mortality over the years, particularly due to flash floods.

Mukhtar Ahmad said that the increase in frequency of cloudbursts is not sudden.

He said that heavy monsoons were already predicted for this year.

“When Monsoon troughs reach the Himalayan region and interact with Western Disturbances (WD) cause heavy rainfall,” Ahmad said.

He said that the recent events of cloudbursts were caused mainly by the interaction of the South-West Monsoons with WD.

Ahmad said that over the past decade, the interaction zones have shifted between Uttrakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and parts of J&K.

“We had Kedarnath, 2014 floods, and this year heavy rainfall over Himachal and Chenab Valley,” he said.

There are two mechanisms by which cloudbursts take place.

Moisture-laden air is forced to rise over mountainous terrain, which leads to rapid cooling and condensation, causing heavy precipitation suddenly (Orographic Activity).

The other process is when warm air mixes with cooler air and large droplets grow rapidly by coalescing with smaller droplets, leading to sudden, intense precipitation.

This phenomenon is exacerbated in J&K by the interaction of monsoon moisture with Western Disturbances, creating ideal conditions for such events.

This month, upto August 30, at least eight rainfall events termed as cloudbursts have been reported in J&K.

These include the devastating cloudbursts of Chasoti Kishtwar and the Mata Vaishno Devi route cloudbursts.

The toll from cloudbursts, especially in terms of human lives in J&K this August, has been staggering.

The Kishtwar incident alone claimed at least 61 deaths, with many more still missing.

The Mata Vaishno Devi disaster toll is still on the rise.

In addition, these incidents destroy homes, infrastructure, and livelihoods.

Flash floods wash away bridges, roads, and entire villages.

The economic and social impact is immeasurable, with the toll of displacement and loss yet to be evaluated.